REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT AND THE EUROPEAN UNION-CHINA COMPREHENSIVE AGREEMENT ON INVESTMENT WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF NEW SEARCHES IN PANDEMIC AND THE WORLD ECONOMY: AN ECONOMY-POLITICAL ANALYSIS

Yıl 2022, , 243 - 264, 28.03.2022

İsmail Hakkı İşcan , Fatma Uzunses

https://doi.org/10.31671/doujournal.1016384

Öz

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP), which is seen as the world's largest free trade agreement among ten ASEAN countries from the Asia-Pacific region and five non-regional countries, was signed on November 15, 2020. On the other hand, the European Union (EU) and China are the two most important countries in international trade. China and Europe trade on average over 1 billion Euros per day. The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI), signed on December 30, 2020, has provided the parties with the opportunity to open their markets to each other, and the Chinese side has granted quite extensive concessions to the EU. As a result of the pandemic period, China's joint ventures with Asian countries and the EU are important for both parties in terms of reducing the economic cost of uncertainty. It is possible to say that with the agreements, China aims to provide alternative commercial partnerships to the United States of America (USA), and the EU aims to create an alternative commercial space vis a vis the USA in the growing Asian market. Also the new administration of the USA will take a stand against the possible contraction in world trade and the competition from China and / or the EU.

Anahtar Kelimeler

RCEP, CAI, China, EU, Pandemic

PANDEMİ VE DÜNYA EKONOMİSİNDE YENİ ARAYIŞLAR ÇERÇEVESİNDE BÖLGESEL KAPSAMLI EKONOMİK ORTAKLIK ANLAŞMASI VE AVRUPA BİRLİĞİ-ÇİN KAPSAMLI YATIRIM ANLAŞMASI: BİR EKONOMİ-POLİTİK TAHLİL

Öz

Asya-Pasifik bölgesinden Çin dâhil on ASEAN ülkesi ve bölge dışı beş ülke arasında dünyanın en büyük serbest ticaret anlaşması olarak görülen Bölgesel Kapsamlı Ekonomik Ortaklık Anlaşması 15 Kasım 2020'de imzalanmıştır. Diğer taraftan Avrupa Birliği (AB) ve Çin, uluslararası ticarette çok önemli iki ülkedir. Çin ve Avrupa günde ortalama 1 milyar Euro'nun üzerinde ticaret yapmaktadırlar. 30 Aralık 2020'de imzalanan AB-Çin Kapsamlı Yatırım Anlaşması taraflara, pazarlarını birbirlerine açma fırsatı tanımakta ve anlaşma ile Çin tarafı AB'ye oldukça geniş tavizler vermektedir. Sonuç olarak Çin ile diğer Asya ülkeleri ve AB arasında gerçekleşen anlaşmalar, pandemi dönemindeki belirsizliğin ekonomik maliyetini azaltma yönüyle önem arz etmektedir. Ayrıca anlaşmalar ile Çin'in Amerika Birleşik Devleri (ABD)’ne alternatif ticari ortaklık temini, AB’nin ise büyüyen Asya pazarında ABD’ye yönelik alternatif ticari alan yaratma amaçlarının olduğunu söylemek mümkündür. Çalışmada elde edilen bulgulardan bir diğeri de bu süreçte ABD’nin yeni yönetiminin dünya ticaretindeki olası daralmaya ve Çin ve/veya AB rekabetine karşı alacağı tavırının da piyasalar açısından önemli olduğu bir beklenti yarattığı yönündedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

RCEP, CAI, Çin, Pandemi, Avrupa Birliği

Kaynakça

• Aljazeera. (2020). RCEP: Asia-Pacific nations sign world’s biggest trade pact. Erişim adresi https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/11/15/rcep-15-asia-pacific-nations-set-worlds-biggest-trade-pact. 15 November
• ASEAN. (2021). Guiding principles and objectives for negotiating the regional comprehensive economic partnership. Erişim adresi https://asean.org/storage/2012/05/RCEP-Guiding-Principles-public-copy.pdf
• ATC. (2017). TPP11 and RCEP compared. Asian Trade Centre, Policy Brief, 17-12. Erişim adresi https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5393d501e4b0643446abd228/t/5a1c16398165f542d6cb5c6b/1511790142681/Policy+Brief+17-12+TPP11+and+RCEP+Compared.pdf. November
• Bekker, E. ve Schroeter, S. (2020). An economic analysis of the US-China trade conflict. World Trade Organization, Economic research and statistics division. Staff working paper ERSD-2020-04, 19 March. Erişim adresi https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/reser_e/ersd202004_e.htm
• Bloomberg. (2021). Europe’s contested deal with China sends warning to Joe Biden. Erişim adresi https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-08/europe-s-contested-deal-with-china-sends-warning-to-joe-biden. 8 January
• Brown, C. P. (2020). Covid-19: Trump’s curbs on exports of medical gear put Americans and others at risk. PIIE Trade and Investment Policy Watch, 9 April. Erişim adresi https://www.piie.com/blogs/trade-and-investment-policy-watch/covid-19-trumps-curbs-exports-medical-gear-put-americans-and, (Er. Tar: 10 Mart 2021).
• Brunsden, J., Peel, M. ve Fleming, S. (2020). What is in the EU-China investment treaty?. Financial Times, 31 December.
• CNA. (2020). Asia-Pacific nations sign world's largest trade pact RCEP. Erişim adresi https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/rcep-trade-pact-asean-summit-singapore-china-13534960. 15 November
• Desjardins, J. (2018). A short history of U.S. trade wars. Visual Capitalist. Erişim adresi https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-u-s-trade-wars/
• EC. (2020a). Key elements of the EU-China comprehensive agreement on investment. European Commission-Press release. 30 December. Erişim adresi https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/api/files/document/print/es/ip_20_2542/IP_20_2542_EN.pdf
• EC. (2020b). EU and China reach agreement in principle on investment. European Commission-News Archive. 30 December. Erişim adresi https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/press/index.cfm?id=2233
• EC. (2021a). Countries and regions-China. Erişim adresi https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/china/
• EC. (2021b). European Union, trade in goods with China. Erişim adresi https://webgate.ec.europa.eu/isdb_results/factsheets/country/details_china_en.pdf
• Elmer. K. (2020). What is the China-EU CAI and how is an investment deal different from a trade deal?. South China Morning Post. Erişim adresi https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3115199/what-china-eu-cai-and-how-investment-deal-different-trade-deal. 24 December
• FT. (2020). Asia-Pacific countries sign one of the largest free trade deals in history. Erişim adresi https://www.ft.com/content/2dff91bd-ceeb-4567-9f9f-c50b7876adce. 15 November
• Grossman, D. (2021). Biden's Southeast Asia policy still has much to prove. The RAND Corporation. Erişim adresi https://www.rand.org/blog/2021/12/bidens-southeast-asia-policy-still-has-much-to-prove.html. (Er.Tar: 15.01.2022).
• Ho, G. (2020). A trade pact nearly 10 years in the making: 5 things to know about RCEP. Erişim adresi https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/a-trade-pact-nearly-10-years-in-the-making-5-things-to-know-about-rcep. 15 November
• Hufbauer, G. C. (2013). The evolving US view on TPP, center for international development. Stanford University, Stanford, 1-12. Erişim adresi https://ycsg.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/hufbauer_TPP.pdf
• IMF. (2021a). World economic outlook, managing divergent recoveries, foreword. April. Erişim adresi https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2021/April/English/Foreword.ashx
• IMF. (2021b). World economic outlook update. July. Erişim adresi https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2021/Update/July/English/text.ashx
• Kamel, H. (2021). MITI: Malaysia to ratify RCEP by year-end. Erişim adresi https://www.bilaterals.org/?miti-malaysia-to-ratify-rcep-by&lang=en. 29 March
• Kyodo. (2020). India absent from RCEP special negotiating talks in Indonesia. Erişim adresi https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/02/86cb90803ba0-india-absent-from-rcep-special-negotiating-talks-in-indonesia.html. 4 February
• Lee, Y. N. (2021). World’s largest trade deal will come into force in January. The U.S. won’t be part of it. Erişim adresi https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/03/worlds-largest-trade-deal-rcep-to-come-into-force-in-january-2022.html. 3 November
• MTI. (2020). Remarks by minister Chan Chun sing at the RCEP media doorstop. Erişim adresi https://www.mti.gov.sg/Newsroom/Speeches/2020/11/Remarks-by-Minister-Chan-Chun-Sing-at-the-RCEP-Media-Doorstop. 15 November
• Ng, C. (2020). 15 countries, including Singapore, sign RCEP, the world's largest trade pact. Erişim adresi https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/politics/15-countries-including-singapore-sign-rcep-the-worlds-largest-trade-pact. 16 November
• Ostry, S. (1998). Reinforcing the WTO. Group of thirty occasional paper 56, Washington, DC. Erişim adresi https://www.group30.org/images/uploads/publications/G30_ReinforcingWTO.pdf. 1-43. (Er. Tar: 10.01.2022).
• Özçelik, S. E. (2018). The potential effects of TPP, TTIP and Trump’s tariffs on China’s competitiveness in the US market. World Journal of Applied Economics, 4(2), 95-115.
• Petri, P. A. ve Plummer. M. G. (2020a). East Asia decouples from the United States: Trade war, COVID-19, and East Asia’s new trade blocs, Peterson institute for international economics (PIIE). Working paper, 20-9. June.
• Petri, P. A. ve Plummer. M. G. (2020b). RCEP: A new trade agreement that will shape global economics and politics. Erişim adresi https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/16/rcep-a-new-trade-agreement-that-will-shape-global-economics-and-politics/#cancel. 16 November
• Şanlı, O. ve Ateş, İ. (2020). ABD-Çin odaklı ticaret ve kur savaşlarının dünya ekonomisi üzerine etkileri. Aydın Adnan Menderes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 7(1), 75-101.
• Tani, S. (2020). India stays away from RCEP talks in Bali. Erişim adresi https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade/India-stays-away-from-RCEP-talks-in-Bali. 4 February
• Terada, T.. (2018). RCEP negotiations and the implications for the United States. The National Bureau of Asian Research. Erişim adresi https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Takashi-Terada/publication/330090815_RCEP_Negotiations_and_the_Implications_for_the_United_States/links/5c2ce2f6299bf12be3a84100/RCEP-Negotiations-and-the-Implications-for-the-United-States.pdf. 18 December
• UNCTAD. (2020). Key statistics and trends in trade policy 2020. The regional comprehensive economic partnership. United Nations Conference on Tade and Development. United Nations publication.
• Vurdu, S. A. (2021). Trans-Pasifik’te ekonomi-politik dalgalar. Dünya Gazetesi. Erişim adresi https://www.dunya.com/kose-yazisi/trans-pasifikte-ekonomi-politik-dalgalar/634842. Eylül 27
• WB. (2022). Erişim adresi https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD
• Xinhuanet. (2020). Xi meets Japanese Prime Minister, urging effort to cherish positive momentum in ties. Erişim adresi http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-10/26/c_137561102.htm. 26 October
• Wong, C. (2020). 15 Asian nations sign RCEP, world’s biggest free-trade deal, after eight years. Erişim adresi https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3109939/china-declares-victory-15-asian-nations-sign-worlds-biggest, 15 November
• WTO. (2020). World trade statistical review 2020. The World Trade Organization, Switzerland. Erişim adresi https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/wts2020_e/wts20_toc_e.htm
• WTO. (2021). World trade statistical review 2021, The World Trade Organization, Switzerland. Erişim adresi https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/wts2021_e/wts21_toc_e.htm
• Yıldızoğlu, E. (2020). ABD ile Çin ticaret anlaşması, ekonomik ve siyasi rekabeti hafifletecek mi?. BBC News. Erişim adresi https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler-dunya-51152022
• Zhou, L. (2020). What is RCEP and what does an Indo-Pacific free-trade deal offer China?. Erişim adresi https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3109436/what-rcep-and-what-does-indo-pacific-free-trade-deal-offer. 12 November