HİSSE SENETLERİ, ALTIN VE GAYRİMENKUL FONLARININ COVID-19 DÖNEMİNDE ENFLASYONA KARŞI KORUMA YETENEKLERİNİN ANALİZİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 2, 479 - 496, 10.07.2023

Levent Sümer

https://doi.org/10.31671/doujournal.1289675

Cited By: 1

Öz

Küresel ekonomi, COVID-19 salgını sebebiyle yaşanan ekonomik daralmanın ardından başta yüksek enflasyon olmak üzere birçok sorunla mücadele etmektedir. Yatırımcılar kriz dönemlerinde güvenli limanlar ararlar ve birçok yatırım aracı arasında gayrimenkul, yüksek enflasyon dönemlerinde yatırımcıların satın alma güçlerini korumak için her zaman cazip bir araç olmuştur. Bu çalışma, Fama-Schwert regresyon modelinden türetilen Gültekin yaklaşımını kullanarak, COVID-19 pandemisi döneminde (Ocak 2020-Aralık 2021) Türkiye'deki Gayrimenkul Yatırım Ortaklıkları ve Gayrimenkul Yatırım Fonlarının riskten korunma kabiliyetini araştırmaktadır. Çalışmada ayrıca T-GYO Endeksi, Borsa İstanbul (BIST) 100 Endeksi ve altın (ons/USD) ve (gram/TL) da karşılaştırma araçları olarak analiz edilmiştir. Regresyon modellerini doğrulamak için t-testi, Jarque-Bera (1980) ve Breusch-Pagan (1979) testleri kullanılmıştır. Araştırma sonuçları, 33 T-GYO'dan sadece 4'ünün ve 15 T-GYO'dan sadece 1'inin enflasyona karşı koruma sağladığını, altın, BİST 100 ve T-GYO endeksinin ise COVID-19 sürecinde istatistiksel olarak korunma kabiliyetine sahip olmadığını ortaya koymuştur. Araştırma sonuçları, yüksek enflasyon altında çok az sayıda riskten korunma aracı bulunduğunu ve bunun sonucunda insanların satın alma güçlerinin düştüğünü göstermiştir. Bu nedenle, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası ciddi bir şekilde enflasyonla mücadeleye odaklanmalıdır. İncelenen geçmiş literatüre bakıldığında bu çalışma, COVID-19 döneminde Türk gayrimenkul sermaye piyasası araçlarının riskten korunma kabiliyetini araştıran ilk araştırma olma özelliği taşımaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Enflasyon, Hisse Senetleri, Altın, Gayrimenkul Fonları, Riskten Korunma

Teşekkür

Bu çalışmaya kıymetli yorumları ile destek veren Sayın Prof. Dr. Ali Hepşen'e teşekkür ederim.

HEDGING ABILITIES OF STOCKS, GOLD, AND REAL ESTATE FUNDS AGAINST INFLATION DURING COVID-19: EVIDENCE FROM TÜRKİYE

Öz

The global economy is struggling with many challenges which started with the recession caused by the COVID-19 disease and continued with the high inflation problem. Investors seek safe havens ain crisis periods and among many investment tools, real estate has always been a preferred tool to protect the purchasing powers of investors under high inflationary periods. By using Gultekin approach derived from the Fama-Schwert regression model, this study investigates the hedging ability of the Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and the Real Estate Investment Funds (REIFs) in Türkiye during the COVID-19 pandemic period (January 2020-December 2021). Additionally, the Turkish REIT (T-REIT) Index, Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST) 100 Index and gold (ounce/USD) and (gram/TL) were also analyzed in the study as benchmark tools. T-test, Jarque-Bera (1980), and Breusch-Pagan (1979) tests were used to validate the regression models. The results of the research revealed that only 4 of 33 T-REITs and 1 of 15 T-REIFs provided a hedge against inflation, while gold, BIST 100, and the T-REIT index did not have the statistical hedging ability during the COVID-19 period. The results of the research exhibited that, there are very few hedging tools under high inflation, and as a result, the purchasing powers of people are decreasing. Hence, the Central Bank of Türkiye Republic should seriously focus on fighting against inflation. Based on the reviewed past literature, this study seems to be the first research that seeks the hedging ability of the T-REITs and T-REIFs during the COVID-19 period.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Inflation, Stocks, Gold, Real Estate Funds, Hedging

Kaynakça

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