Avrupa Birliği Üyesi Ülkelerde Kamu Borcu ve Ekonomik Büyümenin Mekânsal Analizi
Yıl 2021,
Sayı: 69, 232 - 251, 30.07.2021
Fazlı Yıldız
,
Güner Tuncer
Öz
Bu çalışmanın amacı Avrupa Birliği üyesi ülkelerde kamu borcu ve ekonomik büyümenin mekânsal analizini gerçekleştirmektir. Amaç kapsamında 2009-2019 dönemi için AB-28 üye ülkelerine LISA analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre 2009, 2011 ve 2012 yıllarında mekânsal benzerlikler tespit edilmiştir. Mekânsal benzerliklerden hareketle, kamu borç yükünün düşük olması ekonomik büyümenin yüksek olması ihtimalini ortaya çıkarabildiği, ayrıca kamu borç yükünün ekonomik büyümeye olan olası negatif etkisinin bölgelerin komşuluk ilişkileri vasıtasıyla bir taşma etkisine sahip olabileceği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
Kaynakça
- Akçay, Ü. ve Güngen, A. R. (2019). Finansallaşma, borç krizi ve çöküş. İstanbul: NotaBene Yayınları.
- Akdemir, T. ve Yeşilyurt, Ş. (2018). Devlet borçlarının kökeni, gelişimi ve iktisadi temelleri. Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(16), 279-305.
- Aktan, C. C. (1997). Ekonomik anayasa. Ankara: TİSK İnceleme Yayınları No: 19.
- Altunöz, U. (2013). Kamu kesimi iç borçlanmasının özel yatırım harcamaları üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 32(2), 25-53.
- Anselin, L. (1988). Spatial econometrics methods and models. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
- Anselin, L. (1995). Local indicator of spatial association - LISA. Geographical Analysis, 27(2), 93-115.
- Anselin, L. (1999). Interactive techniques and exploratory spatial data analysis. P. A. Longley, M. F. Goodchild, D. J. Maguire ve D. W. Rhind (Ed.), Geographical information systems: Principles, techniques, management and applications in (ss. 251-264). New York: Wiley.
- Anselin, L., Sridharan, S. ve Gholston, S. (2007). Using exploratory spatial data analysis to leverage social indicator database: The discovery of interesting patterns. Social Indicators Research, 82, 287-309.
- Arıcan, E. (2005). Ricardocu denklik teoremi ve teorilerde kamu açıklarına ilişkin yaklaşımlar: Türkiye ekonomisine ilişkin bir uygulama. Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 20(1), 77-94.
- Aspromourgos, T. (2012). Keynes’s general theory after 75 years: Chapter 24 and the character of ‘Keynesian’ policy, Economic Record, 88(1), 149-157.
- Aybarç, S. (2019). Theory of public debt and current reflections. B. Açıkgöz (Ed.), Public economics and finance içinde (ss. 1-22). London UK: IntechOpen. Erişim adresi: https://www.intechopen.com/books/public-economics-and-finance/theory-of-public-debt-and-current-reflections.
- Bilan, I. (2016). Overview of the main theories on the economic effects of public indebtedness. EIRP Proceedings,11(2016), 356-362.
- Brown-Collier, E. K. ve Collier, B. E. (1995). What Keynes really said about deficit spending. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 17(3), 341-355.
- Caner, M., Grennes, T. ve Koehler-Geib, F. (2010). Finding the tipping point: When sovereign debt turns bad (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5391). Erişim adresi: http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/509771468337915456/pdf/WPS5391.pdf.
- Cecchetti, S., Mohanty, M. ve Zampolli, F. (2011). Achieving growth amid fiscal imbalances: The real effects of debt. Economic Symposium Conference Proceedings içinde (ss. 145-196). Erişim adresi: https://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/sympos/2011/Cecchetti_final.pdf.
- Checherita, C. ve Rother, P. (2010). The impact of high and growing government debt on economic growth an empirical investigation for the euro area (European Central Bank Working Paper Series No: 123). Erişim adresi: http://ssrn.com/abstract_id=1659559.
- Dombi, Á. ve Dedák, I. (2019.) Public debt and economic growth: What do neoclassical growth models teach us?. Applied Economics, 51(29), 3104-3121.
- Eberhardt, M. ve Presbitero, A. F. (2015). Public debt and growth: Heterogeneity and non-linearity. Journal of International Economics, 97(1), 45-58.
- Eker, A. ve Meriç, M. (2005). Devlet borçları (kamu kredisi). Ankara: Şafak Matbaacılık.
- EUROSTAT (2021). Data (Economy and finance / government statistics / Government finance statistics [Veri Seti]. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/data/database.
- Gómez-Puig, M. ve Sosvilla-Rivero, S. (2017). Public debt and economic growth: Further evidence for the euro area (IREA Research Institute of Applied Economics Working Paper 2017/15). Erişim adresi: http://www.ub.edu/irea/working_papers/2017/201715.pdf.
- Günaydın, İ. ve Eser, L. Y. (2009). Maliye politikasında yeni trend: Mali kurallar. Maliye Dergisi, 156, 51-65.
- Güzel, S. ve Çetin, I. (2018). Gelişmiş ve yükselen ekonomilerde kamu borcu ve gsyih: Mekânsal ekonometri yaklaşımı. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 10(19), 335-348.
- Hayo, B. ve Neumeier, F. (2017). The (in)validity of the Ricardian equivalence theorem–findings from a representative german population survey. Journal of Macroeconomics, 51, 162–174.
- Holtfrerich, C.-L. (2013). Government debt in economic thought of the long 19th century (Freie Universität Berlin, School of Business & Economics Discussion Paper No. 2013/4). Erişim adresi: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/73682/1/744894646.pdf.
- İnce, M. (2001). Devlet borçları ve Türkiye. Ankara: Gazi Kitabevi.
- Jacobo, A. D. ve Jalile, I. R. (2017). The impact of government debt on economic growth: An overview for Latin America (Working Papers of the Department of Economics University of Perugia No: 28). Erişim adresi: http://www.econ.unipg.it/files/generale/wp_2017/wp_28_2017_jacobo_jalile.pdf.
- Kamiguchi, A. ve Tamai, T. (2019). Public investment, public debt, and population aging under the golden rule of public finance. Journal of Macroeconomics, 60, 110–122.
- Kaur, B. ve Mukherjee, A. (2012). Threshold level of debt and public debt sustainability: The Indian experience. Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers, 33(1&2), 1-37.
- Koukouritakis, M. ve Michelis, L. (2003). EU enlargement: Are the new countries ready to join the EMU? (Department of Economics Universitiy of Cyprus Economics Publications and Research Discussion Paper 2003-06). Erişim adresi: http://papers.econ.ucy.ac.cy/RePEc/papers/6-2003.pdf.
- Köstekçi, A. ve Yıldız, F. (2021). Kamu borç yönetiminde etkinliğin ülkelerin makroekonomik performansına etkisi: OECD ülkeleri örneği. Manas Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 10(1), 445-462.
- Kumar, M. S. ve Woo, J. (2010). Public debt and growth (IMF Working Paper WP/10/174). Erişim adresi: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/wp10174.pdf.
- Mencinger, J., Aristovnik, A. ve Verbič, M. (2014). The impact of growing public debt on economic growth in the European Union (MPRA Paper No. 53243). Erişim adresi: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/53243/1/MPRA_paper_53243.pdf.
- Misztal, P. (2010). Public debt and economic growth in the European Union. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, 5(3-13), 292-302.
- Mohanty, A. R. ve Mishra, B. R. (2016). Impact of public debt on economic growth: Evidence from Indian states. XIMB Journal of Management, 13(2), 1-21.
- Özdemir Gündüz, F. ve Çelikay, F. (2019). Kamu borç yükünün ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri: Seçilmiş ülkeler örnekleminde bir inceleme. Maliye Dergisi, 177, 247-275.
- Presbitero, A. F. (2012). Total public debt and growth in developing countries. European Journal of Development Research, 24(4), 606-626.
- Reinhart, C. M. ve Rogoff, K. S. (2010). Growth in a time of debt. American Economic Review, 100(2), 573-578.
- Reinhart, C. M., Reinhart, V. R. ve Rogoff, K. S. (2012). Public debt overhangs: Advanced-economy episodes since 1800. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 26(3), 69-86.
- Rosen, H. S. ve Gayer, T. (2020). Public Finance. USA: McGraw Hill Education.
- Rugy, V. ve Salmon, J. (2020). Debt and growth: A decade of studies (Mercatus Center George Mason University Research Paper). Erişim adresi: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3690510.
- Saifuddin, M. (2016). Public debt and economic growth: Evidence from Bangladesh. Global Journal of Management and Business Research-B: Economics and Commerce, 16(5-1), 65-73.
- Saungweme, T. ve Odhiambo, N. M. (2020). The impact of domestic and foreign public debt on economic growth: Empirical evidence from Zimbabwe. International Economics, 73(1), 77-106.
- Savaş, V. F. (1997), Anayasal iktisat. İstanbul: Avcıol Basım Yayın.
- Swamy, V. (2015). Government debt and economic growth – decomposing the cause and effect relationship (MPRA Paper No. 64105). Erişim adresi: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/64105/1/MPRA_paper_64105.pdf.
- Szabó, Z. (2013). The effect of sovereign debt on economic growth and economic development. Public Finance Quarterly, 58(2013/3), 251-270.
- Şeker, M. (2006). Dış borçlanmaya teorik bir bakış ve dış borçların ekonomik etkileri. Sosyoekonomi, 2006-1, 74-92.
- Şimşek, H. A. (2009), Teoride ve uygulamada kamu borçlanması. Ankara: Gazi Kitabevi.
- Tempelman, J. H. (2007). James M. Buchanan on public-debt finance. The Independent Review,11(3), 435-449.
- Tobler, W. (1979). Cellular geography. S. Gale ve G. Olsson (Ed.), Philosophy in geography in (ss. 519-536). Netherlands: Springer.
- Topal, P. (2014). Threshold effects of public debt on economic growth in the euro area economies (Goethe University Research Paper). Erişim adresi: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2421147.
- Tsoulfidis, L. (2007). Classical economists and public debt. International Review of Economics, 54, 1-12.
- Turan, T. (2019). Kamu borcunun ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri: Türkiye için eşbütünleşme analizi. Maliye Dergisi, 177, 1-27.
- Yaşa, M. (1978). Devlet borçları. Ankara: Ankara Üniversitesi Hukuk Fakültesi Yayınları No: 421.
- Yıldız, A. ve Köstekçi, A. (2017). Mali kural uygulamaları ve Türkiye’nin mali kural performansı (2000-2015). F. Yıldız ve G. Tuncer (Ed.), Güncel gelişmeler perspektifinden kamu maliyesinde seçme konular içinde (ss. 77-108). Ankara: Savaş Yayınevi.
- Yolcu Karadam, D. (2018). An investigation of nonlinear effects of debt on growth. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 18(C), 1-13.
The Spatial Analysis of Public Debt and Economic Growth in European Union Member Countries
Yıl 2021,
Sayı: 69, 232 - 251, 30.07.2021
Fazlı Yıldız
,
Güner Tuncer
Öz
The aim of this paper is to perform spatial analysis of public debt and economic growth in European Union member countries. Within the scope of the purpose, LISA analysis is applied for the EU-28 member countries in 2009-2019 period. According to the analysis results, spatial similarities are determined in 2009, 2011 and 2012. Based on the spatial similarities, the low public debt burden may reveal the possibility of high economic growth, and the possible negative effect of the public debt burden on economic growth may have a spillover effect via neighborhood relations of the regions.
Kaynakça
- Akçay, Ü. ve Güngen, A. R. (2019). Finansallaşma, borç krizi ve çöküş. İstanbul: NotaBene Yayınları.
- Akdemir, T. ve Yeşilyurt, Ş. (2018). Devlet borçlarının kökeni, gelişimi ve iktisadi temelleri. Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(16), 279-305.
- Aktan, C. C. (1997). Ekonomik anayasa. Ankara: TİSK İnceleme Yayınları No: 19.
- Altunöz, U. (2013). Kamu kesimi iç borçlanmasının özel yatırım harcamaları üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 32(2), 25-53.
- Anselin, L. (1988). Spatial econometrics methods and models. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
- Anselin, L. (1995). Local indicator of spatial association - LISA. Geographical Analysis, 27(2), 93-115.
- Anselin, L. (1999). Interactive techniques and exploratory spatial data analysis. P. A. Longley, M. F. Goodchild, D. J. Maguire ve D. W. Rhind (Ed.), Geographical information systems: Principles, techniques, management and applications in (ss. 251-264). New York: Wiley.
- Anselin, L., Sridharan, S. ve Gholston, S. (2007). Using exploratory spatial data analysis to leverage social indicator database: The discovery of interesting patterns. Social Indicators Research, 82, 287-309.
- Arıcan, E. (2005). Ricardocu denklik teoremi ve teorilerde kamu açıklarına ilişkin yaklaşımlar: Türkiye ekonomisine ilişkin bir uygulama. Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 20(1), 77-94.
- Aspromourgos, T. (2012). Keynes’s general theory after 75 years: Chapter 24 and the character of ‘Keynesian’ policy, Economic Record, 88(1), 149-157.
- Aybarç, S. (2019). Theory of public debt and current reflections. B. Açıkgöz (Ed.), Public economics and finance içinde (ss. 1-22). London UK: IntechOpen. Erişim adresi: https://www.intechopen.com/books/public-economics-and-finance/theory-of-public-debt-and-current-reflections.
- Bilan, I. (2016). Overview of the main theories on the economic effects of public indebtedness. EIRP Proceedings,11(2016), 356-362.
- Brown-Collier, E. K. ve Collier, B. E. (1995). What Keynes really said about deficit spending. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 17(3), 341-355.
- Caner, M., Grennes, T. ve Koehler-Geib, F. (2010). Finding the tipping point: When sovereign debt turns bad (World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5391). Erişim adresi: http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/509771468337915456/pdf/WPS5391.pdf.
- Cecchetti, S., Mohanty, M. ve Zampolli, F. (2011). Achieving growth amid fiscal imbalances: The real effects of debt. Economic Symposium Conference Proceedings içinde (ss. 145-196). Erişim adresi: https://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/sympos/2011/Cecchetti_final.pdf.
- Checherita, C. ve Rother, P. (2010). The impact of high and growing government debt on economic growth an empirical investigation for the euro area (European Central Bank Working Paper Series No: 123). Erişim adresi: http://ssrn.com/abstract_id=1659559.
- Dombi, Á. ve Dedák, I. (2019.) Public debt and economic growth: What do neoclassical growth models teach us?. Applied Economics, 51(29), 3104-3121.
- Eberhardt, M. ve Presbitero, A. F. (2015). Public debt and growth: Heterogeneity and non-linearity. Journal of International Economics, 97(1), 45-58.
- Eker, A. ve Meriç, M. (2005). Devlet borçları (kamu kredisi). Ankara: Şafak Matbaacılık.
- EUROSTAT (2021). Data (Economy and finance / government statistics / Government finance statistics [Veri Seti]. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/data/database.
- Gómez-Puig, M. ve Sosvilla-Rivero, S. (2017). Public debt and economic growth: Further evidence for the euro area (IREA Research Institute of Applied Economics Working Paper 2017/15). Erişim adresi: http://www.ub.edu/irea/working_papers/2017/201715.pdf.
- Günaydın, İ. ve Eser, L. Y. (2009). Maliye politikasında yeni trend: Mali kurallar. Maliye Dergisi, 156, 51-65.
- Güzel, S. ve Çetin, I. (2018). Gelişmiş ve yükselen ekonomilerde kamu borcu ve gsyih: Mekânsal ekonometri yaklaşımı. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 10(19), 335-348.
- Hayo, B. ve Neumeier, F. (2017). The (in)validity of the Ricardian equivalence theorem–findings from a representative german population survey. Journal of Macroeconomics, 51, 162–174.
- Holtfrerich, C.-L. (2013). Government debt in economic thought of the long 19th century (Freie Universität Berlin, School of Business & Economics Discussion Paper No. 2013/4). Erişim adresi: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/73682/1/744894646.pdf.
- İnce, M. (2001). Devlet borçları ve Türkiye. Ankara: Gazi Kitabevi.
- Jacobo, A. D. ve Jalile, I. R. (2017). The impact of government debt on economic growth: An overview for Latin America (Working Papers of the Department of Economics University of Perugia No: 28). Erişim adresi: http://www.econ.unipg.it/files/generale/wp_2017/wp_28_2017_jacobo_jalile.pdf.
- Kamiguchi, A. ve Tamai, T. (2019). Public investment, public debt, and population aging under the golden rule of public finance. Journal of Macroeconomics, 60, 110–122.
- Kaur, B. ve Mukherjee, A. (2012). Threshold level of debt and public debt sustainability: The Indian experience. Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers, 33(1&2), 1-37.
- Koukouritakis, M. ve Michelis, L. (2003). EU enlargement: Are the new countries ready to join the EMU? (Department of Economics Universitiy of Cyprus Economics Publications and Research Discussion Paper 2003-06). Erişim adresi: http://papers.econ.ucy.ac.cy/RePEc/papers/6-2003.pdf.
- Köstekçi, A. ve Yıldız, F. (2021). Kamu borç yönetiminde etkinliğin ülkelerin makroekonomik performansına etkisi: OECD ülkeleri örneği. Manas Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 10(1), 445-462.
- Kumar, M. S. ve Woo, J. (2010). Public debt and growth (IMF Working Paper WP/10/174). Erişim adresi: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/wp10174.pdf.
- Mencinger, J., Aristovnik, A. ve Verbič, M. (2014). The impact of growing public debt on economic growth in the European Union (MPRA Paper No. 53243). Erişim adresi: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/53243/1/MPRA_paper_53243.pdf.
- Misztal, P. (2010). Public debt and economic growth in the European Union. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, 5(3-13), 292-302.
- Mohanty, A. R. ve Mishra, B. R. (2016). Impact of public debt on economic growth: Evidence from Indian states. XIMB Journal of Management, 13(2), 1-21.
- Özdemir Gündüz, F. ve Çelikay, F. (2019). Kamu borç yükünün ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri: Seçilmiş ülkeler örnekleminde bir inceleme. Maliye Dergisi, 177, 247-275.
- Presbitero, A. F. (2012). Total public debt and growth in developing countries. European Journal of Development Research, 24(4), 606-626.
- Reinhart, C. M. ve Rogoff, K. S. (2010). Growth in a time of debt. American Economic Review, 100(2), 573-578.
- Reinhart, C. M., Reinhart, V. R. ve Rogoff, K. S. (2012). Public debt overhangs: Advanced-economy episodes since 1800. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 26(3), 69-86.
- Rosen, H. S. ve Gayer, T. (2020). Public Finance. USA: McGraw Hill Education.
- Rugy, V. ve Salmon, J. (2020). Debt and growth: A decade of studies (Mercatus Center George Mason University Research Paper). Erişim adresi: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3690510.
- Saifuddin, M. (2016). Public debt and economic growth: Evidence from Bangladesh. Global Journal of Management and Business Research-B: Economics and Commerce, 16(5-1), 65-73.
- Saungweme, T. ve Odhiambo, N. M. (2020). The impact of domestic and foreign public debt on economic growth: Empirical evidence from Zimbabwe. International Economics, 73(1), 77-106.
- Savaş, V. F. (1997), Anayasal iktisat. İstanbul: Avcıol Basım Yayın.
- Swamy, V. (2015). Government debt and economic growth – decomposing the cause and effect relationship (MPRA Paper No. 64105). Erişim adresi: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/64105/1/MPRA_paper_64105.pdf.
- Szabó, Z. (2013). The effect of sovereign debt on economic growth and economic development. Public Finance Quarterly, 58(2013/3), 251-270.
- Şeker, M. (2006). Dış borçlanmaya teorik bir bakış ve dış borçların ekonomik etkileri. Sosyoekonomi, 2006-1, 74-92.
- Şimşek, H. A. (2009), Teoride ve uygulamada kamu borçlanması. Ankara: Gazi Kitabevi.
- Tempelman, J. H. (2007). James M. Buchanan on public-debt finance. The Independent Review,11(3), 435-449.
- Tobler, W. (1979). Cellular geography. S. Gale ve G. Olsson (Ed.), Philosophy in geography in (ss. 519-536). Netherlands: Springer.
- Topal, P. (2014). Threshold effects of public debt on economic growth in the euro area economies (Goethe University Research Paper). Erişim adresi: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2421147.
- Tsoulfidis, L. (2007). Classical economists and public debt. International Review of Economics, 54, 1-12.
- Turan, T. (2019). Kamu borcunun ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri: Türkiye için eşbütünleşme analizi. Maliye Dergisi, 177, 1-27.
- Yaşa, M. (1978). Devlet borçları. Ankara: Ankara Üniversitesi Hukuk Fakültesi Yayınları No: 421.
- Yıldız, A. ve Köstekçi, A. (2017). Mali kural uygulamaları ve Türkiye’nin mali kural performansı (2000-2015). F. Yıldız ve G. Tuncer (Ed.), Güncel gelişmeler perspektifinden kamu maliyesinde seçme konular içinde (ss. 77-108). Ankara: Savaş Yayınevi.
- Yolcu Karadam, D. (2018). An investigation of nonlinear effects of debt on growth. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 18(C), 1-13.