Potential Components of Current Account Deficits Based on Credit Expansion in Turkey

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1, 37 - 58, 22.03.2021

Ömer Akçayır

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

Cari Açık

Kredi Genişlemesi Temelinde Türkiye’de Cari Açıkların Potansiyel Bileşenleri

Öz

Türkiye gibi büyüme hedefleri yüksek olan ülkelerin yatırımlar için gerekli ulusal tasarruf oranlarının yetersizliği halinde yurt dışı tasarruflara olan bağımlığın artmasının, kredi genişlemesi yoluyla cari açıkları negatif yönde etkilediği bilinmektedir. Bu kapsamda çalışmada, Türkiye’de uzun yıllardır devam eden cari açıkların belirleyicilerini özel sektör kredi genişlemesi perspektifinde tespit etmek amacıyla ekonometrik analizler yapılmıştır. Seriler arasındaki eşbütünleşmenin varlığı Pesaran’ın (vd. 2001) sınır testi yaklaşımıyla, nedensellik ilişkileri ise Toda-Yamamoto (1995) ve Dolado-Lütkepohl (1996) yöntemleriyle (TYDL) belirlenmiştir. Bulgulara göre, muhtemel birçok açıklayıcı değişken arasından kredi genişlemesi, ekonomik büyüme ve petrol ithalatının Türkiye’de cari açığı artırdığı, enflasyon ve finansal derinliğin ise cari açığı azalttığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kredi Genişlemesi, Cari Açık, Eşbütünleşme, Nedensellik, Türkiye

Kaynakça

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