The forecasting of the exports and imports of paper and paper products of Turkey using Box-Jenkins method

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1, 54 - 65, 28.02.2019

Nadir Ersen , İlker Akyüz , Bahadır Çağrı Bayram

https://doi.org/10.31195/ejejfs.502397

Cited By: 8

Öz

In this study, it is aimed to determine
the most suitable time series models with Box-Jenkins method, which is the most
widely used in prediction studies. Export and import values have been predicted
by 2020 with the most suitable models. The data used in this study were
obtained from the Turkey Statistical Institute. Data are monthly data covering
from January 2003 to December 2014. Sum of Squared Errors (SSE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE)
criteria were taken into consideration when selecting the
best Box-Jenkins models. Also, in order to test the success of forecasting of
the models, Root mean Error Square (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean
Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) were used.

As a result of the analyzes, it was
determined that the most suitable models for export and import data were ARIMA
(2,1,0) (0,0,1)₁₂ and ARIMA(3,1,2)(1,0,1)₁₂. It was
predicted that the rate of exports meeting imports in paper and paper products
of Turkey will be approximately 0.86 in 2020.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Paper and paper products, Box-Jenkins, Exports and Imports

Kaynakça

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