DETERMINANTS OF EXTERNAL DEBT FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE IMPACTS OF WORKERS’ REMITTANCES

Yıl 2024, , 55 - 60, 30.04.2024

Ayşe Arı

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.1291328

Öz

In this study, we investigated the effect of workers’ remittances on foreign debt. For this purpose, we analyzed the upper-middle income countries for the period 1998-2019 by employing the GMM (generalized method of moments) estimator. According to the results of the analysis, workers’ remittances affect foreign debt negatively. Other variables that have a negative impact on external debt are openness and domestic savings. It has been also determined that inflation, government expenditure and nominal exchange rate have positive effects on foreign debt. In this case, it can be said that policies which encourage savings, remittances and foreign trade should be implemented in order to reduce dependence on foreign debt. In addition, targeting a low inflation rate, exchange rate and budget deficit may contribute to reduction of the external borrowing burden.

Anahtar Kelimeler

external debt, workers' remittances, developing countries

GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELER İÇİN DIŞ BORÇLARIN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: İŞÇİ DÖVİZLERİ ETKİSİ

Öz

Bu çalışmada işçi dövizlerinin dış borçlar üzerindeki etkisi araştırılmıştır. Bu amaçla üst-orta gelir grubu ülkeler 1998-2019 dönemi için GMM (genelleştirilmiş momentler yöntemi) tahmincisi ile analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre işçi dövizleri dış borçları negatif etkilemektedir. Dış borçlar üzerinde negatif etkiye sahip diğer değişkenlerin ise dışa açıklık ve yurtiçi tasarruflar olduğu görülmüştür. Enflasyon, kamu harcaması ve nominal döviz kurunun ise dış borçları pozitif etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. Bu durumda dış borçlara bağımlılığın azaltılması için tasarrufları, işçi dövizlerini ve dış ticareti teşvik edici politikaların uygulanması gerektiği söylenebilir. İlaveten düşük bir enflasyon oranı, döviz kuru ve bütçe açığının hedeflenmesi dış borçlanma yükünün azalmasına katkı sağlayabilecektir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

dış borçlar, işçi dövizleri, gelişmekte olan ülkeler

Kaynakça

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