GELEN TURİST SAYISININ EN FAZLA OLDUĞU 10 ÜLKEDE TURİZM İLE CO2 SALIMI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: PANEL FOURİER TODA-YAMAMOTO NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Yıl 2022, , 281 - 303, 29.04.2022

Süleyman Yurtkuran

https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.988886

Cited By: 7

Öz

Turizmin gayri safi yurt içi hasıla içerisindeki payı giderek artmaktadır. Fakat bu sektör çevre kirliliğine de sebep olabilmektedir. Bu yüzden bu çalışma gelen turist sayısının en fazla olduğu 10 ülkede 1995-2018 döneminde turizm ile karbon dioksit (CO2) salımı arasındaki ilişkiyi test etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Seriler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisini belirlemek için panel Westerlund ve Edgeworth yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Ampirik analiz uzun dönemde turizm ve CO2 salımı arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Uzun dönem katsayılarını elde etmek için Genişletilmiş Ortalama Grup (AMG) uzun dönem tahmincisi kullanılmıştır. AMG tahmincine ait sonuçlar turizmin Fransa, Çin, İtalya ve Türkiye’de CO2 salımını arttırdığını; İspanya, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri (ABD), Meksika, Almanya ve Tayland’da bu salımı azalttığını göstermektedir. Mevcut çalışmanın sonuçları, Fransa, Çin, İtalya ve Türkiye’de çevresel açıdan uluslararası turizm sektörünün ciddi bir şekilde dikkate alınması gerektiğini göstermektedir. Bu çalışmada ayrıca yeni geliştirilen Fourier Toda-Yamamoto (TY) Granger nedensellik yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Fourier TY Granger analizinden elde edilen sonuçlar İspanya, Türkiye ve Meksika’da turizmden CO2 salımına, Çin ve Almanya’da CO2 salımından turizme doğru ve ABD’de turizm ile CO2 salımı arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Fransa, İtalya, Tayland ve İngiltere’de iki seri arasında herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisine rastlanmamıştır. Panelin geneline bakıldığında ise turizm ile CO2 salımı arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu görülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Turizm, CO2 salımı, Fourier Toda-Yamamoto

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TOURISM AND CO2 EMISSION IN THE 10 COUNTRIES WITH THE HIGHEST NUMBER OF INCOMING TOURISTS: PANEL FOURIER TODA-YAMAMOTO CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

Öz

Tourism’s share of gross domestic product is gradually increasing. However, this sector can also cause environmental pollution. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the relationship between tourism and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 10 countries with the highest number of incoming tourists during 1995-2018. The panel Westerlund and Edgeworth approach is employed to evaluate the cointegration between variables. The empirical analysis confirms the existence of a long-run relationship between tourism and CO2 emissions. Augmented Mean Group (AMG) is used to estimate long-term coefficients. The results of the AMG estimator show that tourism increases CO2 emissions in France, China, Italy, and Turkey, and decreases them in Spain, United States of America (USA), Mexico, Germany and Thailand. The results of this study show that the international tourism industry in France, China, Italy and Turkey needs to be taken seriously from an environmental perspective. In addition, the newly developed Fourier Toda-Yamamoto (TY) Granger causality method was used in this study. The results of the Fourier TY Granger analysis state that a unidirectional causality relationship was found from tourism to CO2 emissions in Spain, Turkey and Mexico, from CO2 emissions to tourism in China and Germany, and a bidirectional causality relationship was found between tourism and CO2 emissions in the USA. No causal relationship between the two series was found in France, Italy, Thailand and England. Looking at the panel as a whole, it can be seen that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between tourism and CO2 emissions.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tourism, CO2 emissions, Fourier Toda-Yamamoto

Kaynakça

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