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ORTA GELİR TUZAĞINI AÇIKLAYAN TEORİK VE AMPİRİK YAKLAŞIMLAR

Yıl 2017, Sayı: 49, 87 - 115, 28.06.2017
https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.323905

Öz

Son yıllarda yapılan araştırmalar orta gelirli
ülkelerin aynı gelir grubunda uzun yıllar kalarak bir üst gelir grubuna
çıkamadığını göstermiştir. Orta gelirli ülkelerin karşı karşıya kaldığı bu
sorun orta gelir tuzağı kavramını gündeme getirmiştir. Bu ülkelerin tuzağa
yakalanmamak ya da tuzaktan çıkmak için hangi faktörlere odaklanması gerektiği
düşüncesinden hareketle literatürde pek çok yaklaşım geliştirilmiştir. Dolayısıyla
bu çalışmanın amacı; orta gelir tuzağını açıklayan teorik ve ampirik
yaklaşımların detaylı bir şekilde ortaya konulmasına katkıda bulunmaktır. Orta gelir
tuzağı olgusu arz yönlü, talep yönlü, ekonomik gelişme evreleri, eşitsizlik,
politik iktisat, büyümede yavaşlama ve diğer yaklaşımlar olmak üzere yedi
başlıkta toplanmıştır. Söz konusu yaklaşımlardan yola çıkarak o
rta gelir tuzağı olgusunun yapısal bir sorundan kaynaklandığı ve bu sorunun aşılmasında bütüncül bir yaklaşımla hareket edilmesi gerektiği sonucuna
ulaşılmaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • AIYAR, Shekhar; Romain DUVAL; Damien PUY; Yiqun WU and Longmei ZHANG; (2013), “Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap”, IMF Working Paper, No. WP/13/71.
  • AOKI, Masahiko; (2011), “The Five-Phases of Economic Development and Institutional Evolution in China and Japan”, ADBI Working Paper Series, No: 340.
  • BERLINER, Tom; Do Kim THANH and Adam MCCARTY; (2013), “Inequality, Poverty Reduction and the Middle-income trap in Vietnam”, Mekong Economics, pp.1-20.
  • CAI, Fang; (2012), “Is There a “Middle-income Trap”? Theories, Experiences and Relevance to China”, China& World Economy, 20 (1), pp.49-61.
  • DEWITTE, Ruben; (2014), “Middle Income Trap and Export Sophistication: Assessment and Economic Policy Implications”, Unpublished Master Thesis, Ghent: Ghent University Faculty of Economic and Business Administration.
  • DONER, Richard F. and Ben Ross SCHNEIDER; (2016), “The Middle-Income Trap: More Politics than Economics”, World Politics, 68(4), pp.608–644.
  • EGAWA, Akio; (2013), “Will Income Inequality Cause a Middle Income Trap in Asia?”, Bruegel Working Paper, No: 2013/06, Internet Address: http://bruegel.org/2013/10/will-income-inequality-cause-a-middle-income-trap-in-asia/, Date of Access: 12.08.2015.
  • EICHENGREEN, Barry; Donghyun PARK and Kwanho SHIN; (2012), “When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China”, Asian Economic Papers, 11 (1), pp.42-87.
  • EICHENGREEN, Barry; Donghyun PARK and Kwanho SHIN; (2013), “Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence On The Middle-Income Trap”, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, No: 18673, Internet Address: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18673, Date of Access: 25.06.2014.
  • EICHENGREEN, Barry; Donghyun PARK and Kwanho SHIN; (2014), “Growth Slowdown Redux”, Japan and World Economy, 32, pp.65-84.
  • FELIPE, Jesus; (2012), “Tracking the Middle-Income Trap: What is It, Who is in It, and Why?”, ADB Economics Working Paper Series, No: 306.
  • FELIPE, Jesus; Arnelyn ABDON and Utsav KUMAR; (2012), “Tracking the Middle Income Trap: What Is It, Who Is in It, and Why?”, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Working Paper, No: 715.
  • FOXLEY, Alejandro and Fernando SOSSDORF; (2013), “Making The Transition From Middle-Incometo Advanced Economies”, Internet Address: www.CarnegieEndowment.org/pubs., Date of Access: 25.06.2014.
  • GILL, Indermit and Homi KHARAS; (2007), An East Asian Renaissance: Ideas for Economic Growth, Washington: World Bank Publications.
  • HARTWELL, Christopher; (2013), “The Growth Elixir: Escaping the Middle Income Trap in Emerging Markets”, Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Brief 13-08.
  • ISLAM, Nazrul; (2013), “Beyond the Middle Income Trap: What Kind of High Income Country Can China Become?”, Working Paper Series, No: 2013-20.
  • ISLAM, Nazrul; (2015), “Will Inequality Lead China to the Middle Income Trap?”, Department of Economic & Social Affairs Working Paper, No: 142.
  • KANAPATHY, Vijayakumari and Herizal HAZRI; (2013), “Political Economy Dimension of A Middle Income Trap: Challenges and Opportunities for Policy Reform (Malaysia)”, Internet Address: http://www.econ.chula.ac. th /public/publication/books/pdf/Political%20Economy%20Dimension %20of%20aMiddle%20Income%20Trap%20Malaysia.pdf, Date of Access: 12.07.2015.
  • KANAPATHY, Vijayakumari; Herizal HAZRI; Pasuk PHONGPAICHIT and Pornthep BENYAAPIKUL; (2014), “Middle Income Trap: Economic Myth, Political Reality”, The Asia Foundation, Internet Address: http://asiafoundation.org/publications/pdf/1277, Date of Access: 25.06.2014.
  • KHARAS, Homi; (2010), “The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries”, OECD Development Centre Working Paper, No. 285.
  • KHARAS, Homi and Harinder KOHLI; (2011), “What is the Middle Income Trap, Why Do Countries Fall into it, and How Can it Be Avoided?”, Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 3(3), pp.281-289.
  • KUZNETS, Simon; (1955), “Economic Growth And Income Inequality”, The American Economic Review, XLV:1, pp.1-30.
  • LEE, Keun and Shi LI; (2014), “Possibility of A Middle Income Trap in China: Assessment in Terms of the Literature on Innovation, Big Business and Inequality”, Front. Econ. China, 9(3), pp. 370-397.
  • LIN, Justin Yifu; (2012), Demystfying The Chinese Economy, First Edition, UK: Cambridge University Press.
  • LUIZ, John M.; (2016), “The Political of Economy Middle Income Traps: Is South Africa in A Long-run Growth Trap? The Path to Bounded Populism”, South African Journal of Economics, 86 (1), pp.3-19.
  • MERT, Merter; (2014), “Türkiye’de ve Dünyada Orta Gelir Tuzağının Talep Yönlü Boyutuna İlişkin Bir Tartışma”, Maliye Dergisi,167, ss.93-115.
  • OHNO, Kenichi; (2009), “Avoiding the Middle Income Trap: Renovating Industrial Policy Formulation in Vietnam”, ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 26 (1), pp. 25-43.
  • THO, Tran Van; (2013), “The Middle-Income Trap: Issues for Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations”, VNU Journal of Economics and Business, 29 (2), pp.107-128.
  • ÜNLÜ, Fatma; (2016), “Orta Gelir Tuzağı ve Yenilik: Teori ve Uygulama”, Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Kayseri: Erciyes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • WANG, Yikai; (2014), “Will China Escape the Middle-income Trap? A Politico-economic Theory of Growth and State Capitalism”, Internet Address: http://www.econ.uzh.ch/dpe/JobMarketCandidates/Wang_ Yikai_JMP.pdf, Date of Access: 25.06.2014.
  • WOO, Wing Thye; (2012), ”China Meets the Middle-income Trap: the Large Potholes in the Road to Catching-up”, Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 10 (4), pp.313-336.
  • WU, Yanrui; (2013), “Productivity, Economic Growth and Middle Income Traps: Implications for China”, Internet Address: http://www.business.uwa.edu.au /data/assets/pdf_file/0004/2283313/ WU-Yanrui Productivity-and-Middle-Income-Traps.pdf, Date of Access: 25.06.2014.
  • ZHUANG, Juzhong; Paul VANDENBERG and Yiping HUANG; (2012), Growing Beyond the Low-Cost Advantage: How the People’s Republic of China Can Avoid the Middle Income Trap, Philippines: Asia Development Bank.

THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL APPROACHES EXPLAINING THE MIDDLE INCOME TRAP

Yıl 2017, Sayı: 49, 87 - 115, 28.06.2017
https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.323905

Öz

Studies
published in recent years indicated that middle-income countries stay for many
years at the same income group, cannot ascend to upper income group. This
problem that middle-income countries faced with has brought the middle-income
trap concept up to the agenda.


Many approaches have been developed in the literature in the light of which
factors these countries should focus to avoid or exit from the trap. Therefore,
aim of the this study
is to contribute to explaining theoretical
and empirical approaches explaining the middle income trap in detail.

The phenomenon
of middle income trap have been gathered to
seven groups, demand side, economic development cycles, inequality, political
economy, growth slowdown and other approaches.
Based upon the aforementioned approaches, it is concluded
that the
phenomenon of
middle income trap is generated from a structural issue and that a
comprehensive approach should be taken to overcome this problem.

Kaynakça

  • AIYAR, Shekhar; Romain DUVAL; Damien PUY; Yiqun WU and Longmei ZHANG; (2013), “Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap”, IMF Working Paper, No. WP/13/71.
  • AOKI, Masahiko; (2011), “The Five-Phases of Economic Development and Institutional Evolution in China and Japan”, ADBI Working Paper Series, No: 340.
  • BERLINER, Tom; Do Kim THANH and Adam MCCARTY; (2013), “Inequality, Poverty Reduction and the Middle-income trap in Vietnam”, Mekong Economics, pp.1-20.
  • CAI, Fang; (2012), “Is There a “Middle-income Trap”? Theories, Experiences and Relevance to China”, China& World Economy, 20 (1), pp.49-61.
  • DEWITTE, Ruben; (2014), “Middle Income Trap and Export Sophistication: Assessment and Economic Policy Implications”, Unpublished Master Thesis, Ghent: Ghent University Faculty of Economic and Business Administration.
  • DONER, Richard F. and Ben Ross SCHNEIDER; (2016), “The Middle-Income Trap: More Politics than Economics”, World Politics, 68(4), pp.608–644.
  • EGAWA, Akio; (2013), “Will Income Inequality Cause a Middle Income Trap in Asia?”, Bruegel Working Paper, No: 2013/06, Internet Address: http://bruegel.org/2013/10/will-income-inequality-cause-a-middle-income-trap-in-asia/, Date of Access: 12.08.2015.
  • EICHENGREEN, Barry; Donghyun PARK and Kwanho SHIN; (2012), “When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China”, Asian Economic Papers, 11 (1), pp.42-87.
  • EICHENGREEN, Barry; Donghyun PARK and Kwanho SHIN; (2013), “Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence On The Middle-Income Trap”, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, No: 18673, Internet Address: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18673, Date of Access: 25.06.2014.
  • EICHENGREEN, Barry; Donghyun PARK and Kwanho SHIN; (2014), “Growth Slowdown Redux”, Japan and World Economy, 32, pp.65-84.
  • FELIPE, Jesus; (2012), “Tracking the Middle-Income Trap: What is It, Who is in It, and Why?”, ADB Economics Working Paper Series, No: 306.
  • FELIPE, Jesus; Arnelyn ABDON and Utsav KUMAR; (2012), “Tracking the Middle Income Trap: What Is It, Who Is in It, and Why?”, Levy Economics Institute of Bard College, Working Paper, No: 715.
  • FOXLEY, Alejandro and Fernando SOSSDORF; (2013), “Making The Transition From Middle-Incometo Advanced Economies”, Internet Address: www.CarnegieEndowment.org/pubs., Date of Access: 25.06.2014.
  • GILL, Indermit and Homi KHARAS; (2007), An East Asian Renaissance: Ideas for Economic Growth, Washington: World Bank Publications.
  • HARTWELL, Christopher; (2013), “The Growth Elixir: Escaping the Middle Income Trap in Emerging Markets”, Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Brief 13-08.
  • ISLAM, Nazrul; (2013), “Beyond the Middle Income Trap: What Kind of High Income Country Can China Become?”, Working Paper Series, No: 2013-20.
  • ISLAM, Nazrul; (2015), “Will Inequality Lead China to the Middle Income Trap?”, Department of Economic & Social Affairs Working Paper, No: 142.
  • KANAPATHY, Vijayakumari and Herizal HAZRI; (2013), “Political Economy Dimension of A Middle Income Trap: Challenges and Opportunities for Policy Reform (Malaysia)”, Internet Address: http://www.econ.chula.ac. th /public/publication/books/pdf/Political%20Economy%20Dimension %20of%20aMiddle%20Income%20Trap%20Malaysia.pdf, Date of Access: 12.07.2015.
  • KANAPATHY, Vijayakumari; Herizal HAZRI; Pasuk PHONGPAICHIT and Pornthep BENYAAPIKUL; (2014), “Middle Income Trap: Economic Myth, Political Reality”, The Asia Foundation, Internet Address: http://asiafoundation.org/publications/pdf/1277, Date of Access: 25.06.2014.
  • KHARAS, Homi; (2010), “The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries”, OECD Development Centre Working Paper, No. 285.
  • KHARAS, Homi and Harinder KOHLI; (2011), “What is the Middle Income Trap, Why Do Countries Fall into it, and How Can it Be Avoided?”, Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 3(3), pp.281-289.
  • KUZNETS, Simon; (1955), “Economic Growth And Income Inequality”, The American Economic Review, XLV:1, pp.1-30.
  • LEE, Keun and Shi LI; (2014), “Possibility of A Middle Income Trap in China: Assessment in Terms of the Literature on Innovation, Big Business and Inequality”, Front. Econ. China, 9(3), pp. 370-397.
  • LIN, Justin Yifu; (2012), Demystfying The Chinese Economy, First Edition, UK: Cambridge University Press.
  • LUIZ, John M.; (2016), “The Political of Economy Middle Income Traps: Is South Africa in A Long-run Growth Trap? The Path to Bounded Populism”, South African Journal of Economics, 86 (1), pp.3-19.
  • MERT, Merter; (2014), “Türkiye’de ve Dünyada Orta Gelir Tuzağının Talep Yönlü Boyutuna İlişkin Bir Tartışma”, Maliye Dergisi,167, ss.93-115.
  • OHNO, Kenichi; (2009), “Avoiding the Middle Income Trap: Renovating Industrial Policy Formulation in Vietnam”, ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 26 (1), pp. 25-43.
  • THO, Tran Van; (2013), “The Middle-Income Trap: Issues for Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations”, VNU Journal of Economics and Business, 29 (2), pp.107-128.
  • ÜNLÜ, Fatma; (2016), “Orta Gelir Tuzağı ve Yenilik: Teori ve Uygulama”, Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Kayseri: Erciyes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • WANG, Yikai; (2014), “Will China Escape the Middle-income Trap? A Politico-economic Theory of Growth and State Capitalism”, Internet Address: http://www.econ.uzh.ch/dpe/JobMarketCandidates/Wang_ Yikai_JMP.pdf, Date of Access: 25.06.2014.
  • WOO, Wing Thye; (2012), ”China Meets the Middle-income Trap: the Large Potholes in the Road to Catching-up”, Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 10 (4), pp.313-336.
  • WU, Yanrui; (2013), “Productivity, Economic Growth and Middle Income Traps: Implications for China”, Internet Address: http://www.business.uwa.edu.au /data/assets/pdf_file/0004/2283313/ WU-Yanrui Productivity-and-Middle-Income-Traps.pdf, Date of Access: 25.06.2014.
  • ZHUANG, Juzhong; Paul VANDENBERG and Yiping HUANG; (2012), Growing Beyond the Low-Cost Advantage: How the People’s Republic of China Can Avoid the Middle Income Trap, Philippines: Asia Development Bank.
Toplam 33 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Fatma Ünlü

Rıfat Yıldız

Yayımlanma Tarihi 28 Haziran 2017
Kabul Tarihi 1 Nisan 2017
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2017 Sayı: 49

Kaynak Göster

APA Ünlü, F., & Yıldız, R. (2017). ORTA GELİR TUZAĞINI AÇIKLAYAN TEORİK VE AMPİRİK YAKLAŞIMLAR. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi(49), 87-115. https://doi.org/10.18070/erciyesiibd.323905

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