Vulnerability and Viability in Small State Foreign Policy: The Case of Armenia

Yıl 2018, Sayı: 61, 71 - 106, 05.12.2018

F. Didem Ekinci

Öz

This paper asserts that, described as a small
state in view of its hard and soft power capacity as well as impact on
international relations, Armenia’s failure in qualifying as a
resource-extractive state leads to vulnerability in its foreign policy
autonomy, while its relations with the diaspora and Russia provide partial
viability in foreign policy via remittances, foreign
direct investment and political/military support. However, since such
activities have not provided a grass-roots reconstruction and self-sufficiency,
it is argued that Armenia is not likely to emulate the autonomous foreign
policies of the successful actors in the system and is likely to
sustain/reinforce the existing, mostly diaspora- and Russia-oriented foreign
policy strategies and practices in the short- and medium-terms.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Armenia, resource-extractive state, diaspora, Russia, foreign policy

Küçük Devlet Dış Politikasında Zafiyet ve Dirençlilik: Ermenistan Örneği

Öz

Mevcut
çalışmada, sert ve yumuşak güç kapasitesi bakımından uluslararası ilişkilerde
etki sahibi olmak bağlamında küçük devlet olarak tanımlanan Ermenistan’ın,
kaynak elde eden devlet olamamasının dış politika otonomisinde zafiyete sebep
olduğu; diaspora ve Rusya ile ilişkilerinin ise; para transferleri, doğrudan
yabancı yatırımı (DYY) ve siyasi/askeri destek ile dış politikada kısmen
dirençlilik sağladığı ileri sürülmektedir. Ancak, söz konusu faaliyetler köklü
bir yeniden yapılanma ve öz yeterlilik temin etmediğinden, Ermenistan’ın sistemdeki
başarılı aktörlerin otonom dış politikalarını taklit edemeyeceğinin ve ağırlıklı
olarak mevcut diaspora ve Rusya yönelimli dış politika strateji ve
uygulamalarını kısa ve orta vadede devam ettirmesinin/pekiştirmesinin, yüksek
olasılık olduğu belirtilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ermenistan, kaynak elde eden devlet, diaspora, Rusya, dış politika

Kaynakça

• Aghanian, Denise. The Armenian Diaspora: Cohesion and Fracture. Lanham, Md: University Press of America, 2007.
• “Armed Forces Personnel (% of Total Labor Force)," World Bank, erişim 14 Ekim 2018, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.TOTL.TF.ZS?locations=AM. “Armenia - Contribution of travel and tourism to GDP as a share of GDP," Knoema Atlas, erişim 24 Ekim 2018, https://knoema.com/atlas/Armenia/topics/Tourism/Travel-and-Tourism-Total-Contribution-to-GDP/Contribution-of-travel-and-tourism-to-GDP-percent-of-GDP.
• "Armenia Country Overview." World Bank, erişim 28 Ekim 2018, http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/armenia/overview.
• “Armenia Economic Report," Economic Development and Research Center, erişim 14 Ekim 2018, http://www.edrc.am/news-events/events-news/271-26-12-2013-armenia-economic-report-2013.
• “Armenia Labor Force," Trading Economics, erişim 14 Ekim 2018, https://tradingeconomics.com/armenia/labor-force-total-wb-data.html.
• “Armenia Needs Development Programs Rather Than Charity Projects - Nikol Pashinian Meets with Armenian Community Representatives in New York." Massis Post, 24 Eylül 2018, https://massispost.com/2018/09/armenia-needs-development-programs-rather-than-charity-projects-nikol-pashinian-meets-with-armenian-community-representatives-in-new-york/.
• “Armenia, Share of construction in GDP, %," UNECE, erişim 23 Ekim 2018, https://w3.unece.org/PXWeb/en/TimeSeries?IndicatorCode=8&CountryCode=051.
• “Armenia," Trading Economics, erişim 14 Ekim 2018, https://tradingeconomics.com/analytics/indicators.aspx.
• “Armenia: Diaspora Assisted Growth," EV Consulting CJSC, 29 Ekim 2018, http://evconsulting.com/sites/default/files/EV_Diaspora_Case_Brief.pdf.
• “Armenia: Foreign Direct Investment, percent of GDP," The Global Economy, erişim 20 Ekim 2018, https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Armenia/Foreign_Direct_Investment/.
• “Armenia-Diaspora Relations: 20 Years Since Independence," Policy Forum Armenia, 2010, erişim 29 Ekim, 2018, https://www.pf-armenia.org/sites/default/files/documents/files/PFA%20Diaspora%20Report.pdf.
• “Armenia's Diaspora-Its Role and Influence," Foreign and Commonwealth Office, erişim 29 Ekim 2018, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/armenias-diaspora-its-role-and-influence.
• Astourian, Stephan H. "State, Homeland and Diaspora: The Armenian and Azerbaijani Cases." İçinde Central Asia and the Caucasus: Transnationalism and Diaspora, derleyenler Touraj Atabaki ve Sanjyot Mehendale, 80-112. London, New York: Routledge, 2005.
• Baldacchino, Godfrey. "Thucydides or Kissinger? A Critical Review of Smaller State Diplomacy." İçinde The Diplomacies of Small States, derleyenler Andrew F. Cooper and Timothy M. Shaw, 21-40. Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009.
• Bary, Mark, ve Steve Packer. Education in Small States: Concepts, Challenges and Strategies. Oxford, UK: Pergamon Press, 1993.
• Braveboy-Wagner, Jacqueline. "Opportunities and Limitations of the Exercise of Foreign Policy Power by a Very Small State: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago." Cambridge Review of International Affairs 23, no. 3 (2010): 407-427.
• Braveboy-Wagner, Jacqueline. Small States in Global Affairs - The Foreign Policies of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM). New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2008.
• Brawley, Mark R. Political Economy and Grand Strategy: A Neoclassical Realist View. Oxon: Routledge, 2010.
• Chaloyan, Astghik. Fluctuating Transnationalism: Social Formation and Reproduction among Armenians in Germany. Wiesbaden: Springer, 2017.
• Chou, Bill. "Perceived Threats and Governing Capacity: Building National Identities in Post-Colonial Singapore and Macao." African and Asian Studies 13, no. 1-2 (2014): 147-166.
• Christensen, Thomas J. Useful Adversaries: Grand Strategy, Domestic Mobilization, and Sino-American Conflict, 1947-1958. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1996.
• Chrysostome, Elie, ve Jean-Marie Nkongolo-Bakenda. "Diaspora and International Business in the Homeland: From Impact of Remittances to Determinants of Entrepreneurship and Research Agenda." İçinde Diaspora Networks in International Business, derleyenler Mario Elo ve Indianna Minto-Coy, 17-40. Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing AG, 2018.
• Cooper, Andrew F., ve Timothy M. Shaw. "The Diplomacies of Small States at the Start of the Twenty-first Century: How Vulnerable? How Resilient?." İçinde The Diplomacies of Small States: Between Vulnerability and Resilience, derleyenler Andrew F. Cooper ve Timothy M. Shaw, 1-18. Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009.
• Country Profile, "World Development Indicators," World Bank, erişim 4 Ekim 2018, Databank.worldbank.org/data/views/Ajaxdownload/FiledownloadHandler.ashx?filename=Armenia.pdf&filetype=pdf&print=y.
• “Current Situation of the Diaspora Connected FDIs in Armenia," Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), 2011, erişim 18 Ekim 2018, http://ev.am/sites/default/files/FDI-GIZ-2011_Baseline_study_25-09-12_Final.pdf.
• Czerewacz-Filipowicz, Katarzyna, ve Agnieszka Konopelko. Regional Integration Processes in the Commonwealth of Independent States. Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing AG, 2017.
• Elo, Mario ve Indianna Minto-Coy. "The Concept of Diaspora from the Perspective of International Business and Economy: An Introduction to the Book." İçinde Diaspora Networks in International Business, derleyenler Mario Elo ve Indianna Minto-Coy, 1-21. Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing AG, 2018.
• Encyclopaedia of Diasporas - Immigrant and Refugee Cultures Around the World, derleyenler Melvin Ember vd. New York: Springer, 2005.
• Foreign Direct Investment in Central Asian and Caucasian Economies: Policies and Issues. New York: United Nations, 2003.
• Ghaplanyan, Irina. Post-Soviet Armenia: The New National Elite and the New National Narrative. New York: Routledge, 2018.
• Grigoryan, Arman. "The Karabakh Conflict and Armenia's Failed Transition." Nationalities Papers (2018): 1-17, https://doi.org/10.1080/00905992.2018.1438383.
• "Gross Domestic Product 2017," World Bank, erişim 7 Ekim 2018, http://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/GDP.pdf.
• Growth Challenges and Government Policies in Armenia. World Bank. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2002.
• Gvalia, Giorgi vd. "Thinking Outside the Bloc: Explaining the Foreign Policies of Small States." Security Studies 22, no. 2 (2013): 98-131.
• Handel, Michael. Weak States in the International System. London: F. Cass, 1981.
• Hey, Jeanne A. K. "Introducing Small State Foreign Policy." İçinde Small States in World Politics: Explaining Foreign Policy Behavior, derleyen Jeanne A. K. Hey, 1-11. Boulder, London: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2003.
• Höll, Otmar. ed., Small States in Europe and Dependence. Vienna: Austrian Institute for International Affairs, 1983.
• Kassimeris, Christos. "The Foreign Policy of Small Powers." International Politics 46, no. 1 (2009): 84-101.
• King, Charles, ve Neil J. Melvin. "Diaspora Politics: Ethnic Linkages, Foreign Policy, and Security in Eurasia." International Security 24, no. 3 (1999-2000): 108-138.
• Kotchikian, Asbed. The Dialectics of Small States. Saarbrücken: VDM Verlag Dr. Müller, 2008.
• Lobell, Steven E. The Challenge of Hegemony: Grand Strategy, Trade, and Domestic Politics. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press, 2005.
• Masih, Joseph R., ve Robert O. Krikorian. Armenia at the Crossroads (Australia: Harwood Academic Publishers, 1999).
• “Minister: Armenia's Jewelry and Diamond Processing Industry Expected to See a More Than 30% Growth in 2016." Arka News Agency, 12 Nisan 2016, http://arka.am/en/news/business/minister_armenia_s_jewelry_and_diamond_processing_industry_expected_to_see_a_more_than_30_growth_in_/.
• Minoian, Victoria Anahi, ve Lev M. Freinkman, "Armenia: What Derives First Movers and How Can Their Efforts be Scaled Up?," İçinde Diaspora Networks and the International Migration of Skills, derleyen Yevgeny Kuznetsov, 129-152. Washington, D.C.: World Bank: 2006.
• Mirzoyan, Alla. Armenia, The Regional Powers, and the West: Between History and Geopolitics. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2010.
• Mitra, Saumya et al., The Caucasian Tiger: Sustaining Economic Growth in Armenia. Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 2007.
• Mohammadzadeh, Babak. "Status and Foreign Policy Change in Small States: Qatar's Emergence in Perspective." The International Spectator 52, no. 2 (2017): 19-36.
• Neumann, Iver B., ve Sieglinde Gstöhl, "Introduction: Liliputians in Gulliver's World?." İçinde Small States in International Relations, derleyenler Christine Ingebritsen vd., 3-36. Seattle: University of Washington Press ve Reykjavik: University of Iceland Press, 2006.
• Papazian, Taline."State at War, State in War: The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict and State-Making in Armenia 1991-1995." The Journal of Power Institutions in Post-Soviet Societies 8, (2008), erişim 13 Ekim 2018, https://journals.openedition.org/pipss/1623#bodyftn3.
• Prasad, Naren. "Small but Smart: Small States in the Global System." İçinde The Diplomacies of Small States, derleyenler Andrew F. Cooper and Timothy M. Shaw, 41-64. Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009.
• Rappard, William. "Small States in the League of Nations." Political Science Quarterly 49, no. 4 (December 1934): 544-575.
• "Remittance Inflows to GDP for Armenia," World Bank, erişim 24 Ekim 2018, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDOI11AMA156NWDB.
• "Remittances in Armenia: Dynamic Patterns and Drivers," IMF, erişim 20 Ekim 2018, https://www.imf.org/external/country/arm/rr/2012/062012.pdf.
• Rickli, Jean-Marc, ve Khalid S. Almezaini. "Theories of Small States' Foreign and Security Policies and the Gulf States." İçinde The Small Gulf States: Foreign and Security Policies Before and After the Arab Spring, derleyenler Khalid S. Almezaini ve Jean-Marc Rickli, 8-30. Oxon: Routledge, 2017.
• Roberts, Sean, ve Ulrike Ziemer. "Explaining the Pattern of Russian Authoritarian Diffusion in Armenia." East European Politics 34, no. 2 (2018): 152-172.
• Rose, Gideon. "Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy." World Politics 51 (October 1998): 144-172.
• Rothstein, Robert L. Alliances and Small Powers. New York: Columbia University Press, 1968.
• Schweller, Randall L. Unanswered Threats: Political Constraints on the Balance of Power. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2006.
• Shain, Yossi. Kinship and Diasporas in International Affairs. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2007.
• SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, erişim 7 Ekim 2018, https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex.
• Stefes, Christoph H. "Clash of Institutions: Clientelism and Corruption vs. Rule of Law." İçinde The State of Law in the South Caucasus, derleyen Christopher P. M. Waters, 3-19. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2018.
• Stepanyan, Ara vd., “The Spillover Effects of Russia's Economic Slowdown on Neighboring Countries.” erişim 11 Ekim 2018, file:///C:/Users/USER/Downloads/_eur1501mcd.pdf.
• Taliaferro, Jeffrey W. "Neoclassical Realism and Resource Extraction: State Building for Future War." İçinde Neoclassical Realism, the State, and Foreign Policy, derleyenler Steven E. Lobell, Norrin M. Ripsman ve Jeffrey W. Taliaferro, 194-226. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009.
• Taliaferro, Jeffrey W. "State Building for Future Wars: Neoclassical Realism and the Resource-Extractive State." Security Studies 15, no. 3 (2006): 464-495.
• Tashjian, Yeghia."How Armenia Lost its Track Towards Sustainable Development," erişim 14 Ekim 2018, https://www.evnreport.com/economy/how-armenia-lost-its-track-towards-sustainable-development.
• “The Armenian Diaspora in Europe," Europe of Diasporas, 17 Ekim 2018, http://europeofdiasporas.eu/sites/default/files/posts/files/A%20brief%20introduction%20to%20the%20Armenian%20diasporas%20in%20Europe.pdf.
• Tilly, Charles. Coercion, Capital and European States, AD 990-1990. Cambridge: Basil Blackwell Ltd., 1990.
• Tilly, Charles. "War Making and State Making as Organized Crime." İçinde Bringing the State Back In, derleyenler Peter Evans, Dietrich Rueschemeyer ve Theda Skocpol, 169-191. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1985.
• Vasilyan, Syuzanna. "Swinging on a Pendulum." Problems of Post-Communism 64, no. 1 (2017): 32-46.
• Vieira, Alena, ve Syuzanna Vasilyan. "Armenia and Belarus: Caught between the EU's and Russia's Conditionalities." European Politics and Society 19, no. 4 (2018): 471-489.
• Vital, David. "The Inequality of States: A Study of the Small Power in International Relations." In Small States in International Relations, derleyenler Christine Ingebritsen vd., 77-88. Seattle: University of Washington Press ve Reykjavik: University of Iceland Press, 2006.
• Workman, Daniel. "Armenia's Top 10 Exports." erişim 4 Ekim 2018, http://www.worldstopexports.com/armenias-top-10-exports/
• Zakaria, Fareed. From Wealth to Power: The Unusual Origins of America's World Role. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1998.