PETROL FİYATI İLE KAMU POLİTİKASI İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 16 Sayı: 1, 317 - 331, 02.05.2020

Mehmet Dinç , Selim Yıldırım

Öz

Enerji ve özellikle de petrol üretim temel bir girdi halini almıştır. Dolayısıyla petrol fiyatlarındaki değişmeler üretimi, finansal sektörü etkilemektedir. Bu çalışmada ise petrol fiyatlarının aynı zaman kamu sektörü üzerinde etkisi olup olmadığı incelenmiştir. Bu amaçla petrol ithal eden bir ülke olan Türkiye için 2000 yılının birinci çeyreğinden 2017 yılının son çeyreğine kadar olan dönem ele alınmıştır. Çalışmada, nominal döviz kuru, cari işlemler dengesinin gayri safi yurtiçi hasılaya oranı, petrol fiyatı ve net dış̧ borç̧ stokunun gayri safi yurtiçi hasılaya oranı serileri kullanılmıştır. Bulgular petrol fiyatlarının nominal döviz kuru, cari işlemler dengesinin gayri safi yurtiçi hasılaya oranı üzerinde etkisi olduğunu göstermiştir. Bahis geçen bu iki değişkeninde ve net dış̧ borç̧ stokunun gayri safi yurtiçi hasılaya oranını etkilediği yönünde bulgulara ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Petrol Fiyatı, Kamu Politikası, Yapısal Kırılmalı Zaman Serisi

Kaynakça

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