CONTAGION OF VIOLENCE OVERSEAS: THE MEDITERRANEAN BASIN

Yıl 2018, , 83 - 98, 31.01.2018

Senem Ertan , Murat Bayar

https://doi.org/10.18354/esam.332591

Öz

The literature indicates that violent conflicts tend to spread across bordering countries via rebel/terrorist networks and refugees. However, this effect has not been tested for “overseas neighbours” that share the same basin. Focusing on the Mediterranean Basin, this study investigates the impact of civil and interstate conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) on terrorist attacks in Southern European countries. The findings indicate that MENA conflicts increase violence in Southern Europe, whereas this effect does not exist in other European countries. This study contributes to the literature by establishing a theoretical and empirical link for overseas contagion effect. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

terrorism, immigrant, refugee, Middle East, North Africa, Mediterranean

ŞİDDETİN DENİZAŞIRI YAYILIMI: AKDENİZ HAVZASI

Öz

Literatür, şiddetli çatışmaların sınırdaki ülkeler arasında isyancı / terörist ağlar ve mülteciler yoluyla yayılma eğiliminde olduğunu göstermektedir. Buna rağmen, bu etki aynı havzayı paylaşan "deniz aşırı komşular" için test edilmemiştir. Akdeniz Havzasına odaklanan bu çalışma, Ortadoğu ve Kuzey Afrika'daki (MENA) sivil ve devletlerarası çatışmaların, Güney Avrupa ülkelerindeki terörist saldırılar üzerindeki etkilerini araştırıyor. Bu çalışmanın bulguları Ortadoğu ve Kuzey Afrika’daki çatışmalarının Güney Avrupa'daki şiddeti arttırdığını gösteriyor ancak bu etki diğer Avrupa ülkelerinde bulunmamaktadır. Bu çalışma, çatışmaların denizaşırı sirayet etkisinin bağlantısını hem teorik hem de ampirik bir bağ kurarak literatüre katkıda bulunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Terrörizm, göçmen, mülteci, Akdeniz, Orta Doğu, Kuzey Afrika, Avrupa

Kaynakça

• Akgündüz, Y., Van den Berg, M. , Hassink, W.H.J. (2015). The Impact of Refugee Crises on Host Labor Markets: The Case of the Syrian Refugee Crisis in Turkey, IZA Discussion Paper No. 8841.
• Barker, M. (1981). The New Racism: Conservatives and the Ideology of the Tribe, Junction Books: London.
• BBC, (2015). Paris attacks: What happened on the night, available online at: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34818994 (Accessed 14 September 2016)
• BBC, (2016, August 19). Attack on Nice: Who was Mohamed Lahouaiej-Bouhlel?, available online at: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36801763 (Accessed 20 October 2016)
• Berti, B. (2015). The Syrian Refugee Crisis: Regional and Human Security Implications, Strategic Assessment, 17 (4), 41-53.
• Bigo, D. (2002). “To Reassure and Protect after September 11th,” Social Science Research Council Essays, available online at: http://www.ssrc.org/sept11/essays/bigo.htm. (Accessed 14 September 2016)
• Brown, Michael E., ed. The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict. London: MIT Press, 1996.
• Buonfino, Alessandra(2004) 'Between unity and plurality: the politicization and securitization of the discourse of immigration in Europe', New Political Science, 26(1): 23-49.
• Fargues, P. (2009). Work, Refugee, Transit: An Emerging Pattern of Irregular Immigration South and East of the Mediterranean, International Migration Review, 43(3): 544-577.
• Fisher, M. (2016, July 15). Attack in Nice, France, Represents Terrorism’s New Reality, New York Times, available online at: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/16/world/europe/attack-in-nice-france-represents-terrorisms-new-reality.html?_r=0 (Accessed 20 October 2016)
• Forsberg, E. (2014). Transnational Transmitters: Ethnic Kinship Ties and Conflict Contagion 1946–2009. International Interactions: Empirical and Theoretical Research in International Relations, 40(2): 142-165.
• Fox, J. and Y. Akbaba (2015). Securitization of Islam and religious discrimination: Religious minorities in Western democracies, 1990–2008, Comparative European Politics, 13 (2): 175–197.
• Gabrielli, L. (2014). Securitization of Migration and Human Rights: Frictions at the Southern EU Borders and Beyond, Urban People, 16(2): 311-322.
• Gleditsch, K.S. (2009) All international politics is local: The diffusion of conflict, integration, and democratization, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
• Gleditsch, K.S. (2008). The Spread of Civil War, in The SAGE Handbook of Conflict Resolution, London, Sage Publication, (595-612).
• Global Terrorism Database. “GTD Variables & Inclusion Criteria”, National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START), (2015), available at: http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/downloads/Codebook.pdf (Accessed on 15 February 2016)
• Haas, H. (2005). Morocco: From Emigration Country to Africa's Migration Passage to Europe, Migration Policy Institute, available at: http://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/morocco-emigration-country-africas-migration-passage-europe (Accessed 14 February 2016)
• Haider, H. (2014). Conflict: Topic Guide. Revised edition with B. Rohwerder. Birmingham: GSDRC, University of Birmingham.
• Hamilton, Lawrence C. and James D. Hamilton. 1983. “Dynamics of Terorism.” International Studies Quarterly, 27(1): 39-54.
• Hammond, T.G., (2015). The Mediterranean Migration Crisis, Foreign Policy, May 2015, available at http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2015/05/19/the-mediterranean-migration-crisis/ (Accessed 14 February 2016)
• Higgins A. amd Freytas-Tamuran, K. (2015). New York Times, available online at: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/18/world/europe/paris-attacks-abdelhamid-abaaoud-an-isis-militant-from-belgium-whose-own-family-wanted-him-dead.html (Accessed 14 September 2016)
• Hill, Stuart and Rothchild, Donald, (1986). The Contagion of Political Conflict in Africa and the World, The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 30, No. 4, pp. 716-735
• Huntington, Samuel. 1996. The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order. New York: Simon & Schuster.
• Ibrahim, M. The Securitization of Migration: A Racial Discourse, International Migration Review, 43 (5) 2005: 163-187.
• Jehn, Karen , Sonja Rispens , Karsten Jonsen and Lindred Greer (2013) "Conflict contagion: a temporal perspective on the development of conflict within teams", International Journal of Conflict Management, Vol. 24 Iss: 4, pp.352 – 373.
• Jordan, J. and Horsburg, N. (2004). The Jihadist Subculture of Terrorism in Spain, in J.Lynch and C. Wheeler (eds.), Cultures of Violence. Oxford: Interdisciplinary Press.
• Kreibaum, M. (2016). Their Suffering, Our Burden? How Congolese Refugees Affect the Ugandan Population, World Development, 78: 262–287.
• Leenders, R. (2007). 'Regional conflict formations': is the Middle East next?, Third World Quarterly, 28(5), 959-982.
• Lobell, S. and P. Mauceri (2004). Diffusion and Escalation of Ethnic Conflict, in eds. Lobell, S. and P. Mauceri, Ethnic Conflict and International Politics: Explaining Diffusion and Escalation, New York: Palgrave Macmillan US.
• Malloy, A. and C. Treyz. (2016, April 11) Obama admits worst mistake of his presidency, CNN Politics, available online at: http://edition.cnn.com/2016/04/10/politics/obama-libya-biggest-mistake/ (Accessed 20 October 2016)
• Marshall, M.G., Major Episodes of Political Violence (MEPV) and Conflict Regions, 1946–2013, available at: http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html (Accessed 5 November 2014).
• Midlarsky, Manus I., Martha Crenshaw and Fumihiko Yoshida. 1980. “Why Violence Spreads: The Contagion of International Terrorism.” International Studies Quarterly, 24(2): 262-298.
• Mishra, P. (2015). After the Paris attacks: It’s time for a new Enlightenment, The Guardian, available at: http://farhatabbasi.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/After-the-Paris-attacks_-It%E2%80%99s-time-for-a-new-Enlightenment-_-Pankaj-Mishra-_-News-_-The-Guardian.pdf (Accessed 14 February 2016)
• Mitts, T. (2012). Targeting and the Spatial Spread of Insurgent Violence A Study on Jammu and Kashmir, India, Senior Honors Thesis, New York University.
• Mitts, T. (2012). Targeting and the Spatial Spread of Insurgent Violence A Study on Jammu and Kashmir, India, Unpublished Thesis.
• Most, A. and Starr, H. (1989). Inquiry, Logic and International Politics, Columbia: University of South Carolina Press.
• Most, B. A. and H. Starr (1980). Diffusion, Reinforcement, Geo-politics and the Spread of War." American Political Science Review, 74, pp.932-46.
• Most, B. A., Starr, H. , and R. M. Siverson . 1989. The Logic and Study of the Diffusion of International Conflict. In Handbook of War Studies (Ed. Manus I . Midlarsky), Boston: Unwin Hyman.
• Neumayer, E. and Plümper, T. (2010). Galton's problem and contagion in international terrorism along civilizational lines. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 27(4): 308-325.
• OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC). (2003). “A Development Co-Operation Lens on Terrorism Prevention” Oxford English Dictionary, available at: https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/immigrant (Accessed 14 September 2016)
• Rodt, A. P. (2015). Diffusion of Conflict, Encyclopedia Princetoniensis: Princeton Encyclopedia of Self Determination, available online at: http://pesd.princeton.edu/?q=node/235(Accessed 14 September 2016)
• Sageman, M. (2009). Foreign Policy, available online at: http://foreignpolicy.com/2009/10/08/the-next-generation-of-terror/ (Accessed 14 February 2016) Salehyan, I., & Gleditsch, K. S. (2006). Refugees and the spread of civil war, International Organization, 60(2), 335-366.
• Samuel, H. and Morgan, T. (2016, July 18). Who is the Nice terror attack suspect? Everything we know so far about Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel, The Telegraph, available online at: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/15/who-is-the-nice-terror-attacker-everything-we-know-so-far/ (Accessed 10 July 2016)
• Sciolino, E. (2004). Bombings in Madrid: The Attck; 10 Bombs Shatter Trains in Madrid, Killing 192, The New York Times, March 12, 2004.
• Silber, M.D. and Bhatt, A. (2007). Radicalization in the West: The Homegrown Threat, New York City Police Department, available at: http://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/NYPD_Report-Radicalization_in_the_West.pdf (Accessed 14 February 2016)
• Siverson, R. M. and Starr, H. (1990). Opportunity, Willingness, and the Diffusion of War, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 84, No. 1, pp. 47-67.
• Siverson. R. M. And J. King (1980). Attributes of National Alliance Membership and War Participation. American Journal of Political Science, 24, pp. 1-15.
• Specia, M. and Bishara Y. (2016, July 18). Truck Attack in Nice, France: What We Know, and What We Don’t, The New York Times, available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/16/world/europe/nice-france-truck-attack-what-we-know.html?rref=collection%2Fnewseventcollection%2Fattacks-in-paris&action=click&contentCollection=europe&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=4&pgtype=collection&_r=0 (Accessed 10 July 2016)
• Stepanova, E. A. Terrorism in Asymmetrical Conflict: Ideological and Structural Aspects, Newyork: Oxford University Press.
• The 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees and its 1967 Protocol, available online at: http://www.unhcr.org/4ec262df9.html (Accessed 14 September 2016)
• Turvey, C. (2013). Identity Construction amongst People of North African Descent Living in Europe, Unpublished Thesis.
• Waever, O. (1993). Identity, Migration and the New Security Agenda in Europe, Pinter Publishers, London.
• Weidmann, N.B. (2015). Communication Networks and the Transnational Spread of Ethnic Conflict. Journal of Peace Research, 52(3): 285-296.