DETERMINING THE INFLUENCE OF OIL PRICES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT: AN ANALYSIS FOR TURKEY WITH VAR METHODOLOGY

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 1, 1 - 23, 12.04.2020

Serhat Yuksel , Gözde Gülseven Ubay , Damla Sezer

Öz

In this study, it is aimed to determine the effects of oil prices changes in economic growth and financial development in Turkey. For this purpose, annual data of these variables are taken into account for the years between 1983 and 2018. In this context, three different models have been created by considering VAR methodology. The results of the analysis show that oil prices have no serious impact on financial development. In addition to the stated issue, it is also concluded that oil prices have a small influence on the economic growth. It can be recommended that in order for economic development to become sustainable, the volatility in oil prices must be lowered. Based on these considerations, it is understood that Turkey needed to decrease its dependence on foreign energy. In this context, it is necessary to increase the exploration activities for energy resources in the country. Sufficient technological equipment and competent personnel are needed to carry out these search activities more effectively. In addition to the mentioned issues, the use of renewable energy sources will also reduce the dependence of the outside and Turkey's energy. In this context, government incentives to use more renewable energy alternatives such as wind, solar, geothermal, biomass and hydroelectric power are important. In this case, Turkey will use its energy resources to be contributed. Otherwise, the sudden increase in oil prices will lead to a decrease in the efficiency of the financial system in the country.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Oil Price, Economic Growth, Financial Development, VAR Analysis

PETROL FİYATLARINDAKİ DEĞİŞİKLİKLERİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME VE FİNANSAL GELİŞİM ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİNİN BELİRLENMESİ: VAR YÖNTEMİ YARDIMIYLA TÜRKİYE İÇİN BİR ANALİZ

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'de petrol fiyatlarındaki değişimlerin ekonomik büyüme ve finansal kalkınma üzerindeki etkilerinin belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaca yönelik olarak, değişkenlerin 1983-2018 yılları arasındaki yıllık verileri dikkate alınmıştır. Bu bağlamda, VAR metodolojisi kullanılarak üç farklı model oluşturulmuştur. Analiz sonuçları petrol fiyatlarının finansal piyasalar üzerinde ciddi bir etkisi olmadığını göstermektedir. Belirtilen konuya ek olarak, petrol fiyatlarının ekonomik büyüme üzerinde düşük ölçüde etkili olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Ekonomik büyümenin sürekli olabilmesi için önce petrol fiyatlarındaki oynaklığın azaltılması tavsiye edilmektedir. Bu husustan yola çıkarak, Türkiye’nin enerji konusunda dışa bağımlılığını azaltmasının gerektiği anlaşılmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, ülke içerisindeki enerji kaynaklarına yönelik arama faaliyetlerinin arttırılması gerekmektedir. Söz konusu arama faaliyetlerinin daha etkin bir şekilde gerçekleştirilebilmesi için yeterli teknolojik donanıma ve yetkin personele ihtiyaç duyulmaktadır. Belirtilen hususa ek olarak, yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarının kullanılması da Türkiye’nin enerji konusunda dışarıya olan bağımlılığını azaltacaktır. Bu çerçevede, rüzgar, güneş, jeotermal, biyokütle ve hidroelektrik gibi yenilenebilir enerji alternatiflerinin daha fazla kullanılabilmesine yönelik verilecek devlet teşvikleri önem arz etmektedir. Bu durum, Türkiye’nin kendi enerji kaynaklarını kullanabilmesine katkı sağlayacaktır. Aksi durumda, petrol fiyatlarındaki ani artış, ülkedeki finansal sistemin etkinliğinin azalmasına yol açacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Petrol Fiyatı, Ekonomik Büyüme, Finansal Gelişme, VAR Analizi

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