Modelling and Mapping of Microrefugial Areas

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 18, 77 - 84, 31.12.2022

Akın Kıraç , Ahmet Mert

Öz

Anadolu'nun Akdeniz Bölgesi, tarihsel iklim değişikliğinden bu yana biyoçeşitliliği koruyan, endemizmi destekleyen ve sığınak niteliğinde bir bölgedir. Refugia'nın insan kaynaklı iklim değişikliği karşısında aynı korumayı ve desteği sürdürmesi beklenebilir. Ancak hızlı ısınma ve yağıştaki azalma sığınak alanlarını daha küçük alanlara bölebilir. Bu durum, yüzyılın sonunu beklemeden, uygun olmayan iklim koşulları arasında organizmalar için uygun iklimleri barındıran mikrorefujilerin araştırılmasını gerekli kılmıştır. Bölgenin biyolojik çeşitliliğini oluşturan önemli türlerin iklim değişikliği senaryolarının etkisi altındaki dağılımını tahmin etmeyi ve bu dağılımların kesiştiği noktadaki mikro sığınma alanlarını belirlemeyi amaçladım. (üçü endemik), refugia'yı temsil ettiği varsayılmıştır. MaxEnt yardımıyla türlerin mevcut ve iklim senaryolarına göre dağılımını tahmin ettim. HadGEM2-ES model tabanlı RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 ve RCP 8.5 senaryolarında potansiyel iklim haritalarındaki dağılımın kesiştiği noktada mikrorefuji oluşabileceğini öne sürdüm. Modelin sonuçları, türün uygun habitatlarının gelecekteki iklim değişikliğinin etkisi altında iyi senaryodan kötü senaryoya doğru azalacağını göstermiştir. Modeller ayrıca en kötü iklim koşullarında bile uygun iklim koşulları sağlayan alanları gösterdi. Mikrorefüjleri, temsilci olarak seçilen 6 tür için uygun iklim koşullarını sağlayan ortak alanlar olarak belirledim. İklim değişikliği, belirli iklim gereksinimleri olan dar bir şekilde dağılmış endemik türler gibi organizmaların yok olmasına yol açabilir. Mikro sığınak alanlarının belirlenmesi ve korunması, türleri iklim değişikliğine ve antropojenik habitat tahribatına karşı korumanın en etkili yoludur. Antropojenik iklim değişikliği sırasında, mikro sığınma alanları biyolojik çeşitliliği koruyacak ve endemizmi destekleyecektir. Bu nedenle mikrorefüjler önemlidir ve bu alanlar koruma planlarına dahil edilmelidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Microrefugia, Climate change, MaxEnt, Biodiversity, Mediterranean, Anatolia.

Modelling and Mapping of Microrefugial Areas

Öz

Since historical climate change, the Mediterranean Region of Anatolia is an area that preserves biodiversity, supports endemism and has the character of refugia. Refugia can be expected to maintain the same protection and support in the face of anthropogenic climate change. However, rapid warming and a decrease in precipitation may break down the refugia areas into smaller areas. This situation necessitated the investigation of microrefugia, which accommodated climates suitable for organisms amid unsuitable climatic conditions, without waiting for the end of the century. I aimed to estimate the distribution of the important species constituting the biological diversity of the region under the influence of climate change scenarios and to determine the microrefugial areas at the intersection of these distributions.In this study, I performed climatic habitat suitability modelling of 6 species (three of them endemic), which has been assumed to represent refugia. With the help of MaxEnt, I estimated the distribution of species according to current and climate scenarios. I have suggested that microrefugia may occur at the intersection of the distribution in potential climatic maps in the HadGEM2-ES model-based RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The results of the model showed that the appropriate habitats of the species would decrease from the good scenario to the bad scenario under the influence of future climate change. The models also showed areas that provide favourable climatic conditions even in the worst climatic conditions. I have identified microrefugia as the mutual areas that provide suitable climatic conditions for the 6 species which have been selected as representatives. Climate change can lead to the extinction of organisms, such as narrowly distributed endemic species with specific climate requirements. Identifying and preserving microrefugial areas is the most effective way to protect species against climate change and anthropogenic habitat destruction. During anthropogenic climate change, microrefugial areas will preserve biodiversity and support endemism. Therefore, microrefugia is critical, and these areas should be included in conservation plans.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Microrefugia, Climate change, MaxEnt, Biodiversity, Mediterranean, Anatolia.

Kaynakça

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