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KOVİD-19 KÜRESEL SALGINININ İŞGÜCÜ PİYASALARI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİNİN ANALİZİ: KURUMSAL VERİLER IŞIĞINDA TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1, 92 - 111, 31.03.2021
https://doi.org/10.29106/fesa.840622

Öz

Çalışmanın temel amacı; Kovid-19 salgınının Türkiye işgücü piyasası üzerindeki etkilerini derinlemesine incelemektir. Dünya ekonomisini ve işgücü piyasalarını olumsuz etkileyen koronavirüs salgını, sağlığa yönelik endişelerle birlikte ekonomik aktiviteleri de şekillendirmesi yönüyle büyük bir tehdide dönüşmüştür. Salgın, bir bakıma bireyleri sağlık ve/veya iktisadi refah arasında tercih yapmak zorunda bırakmaktadır. Bu durum herkes için büyük bir çelişki oluşturmaktadır. Dolayısıyla bahse konu küresel salgın, bir taraftan sağlık açısından hastalığın hızlı bir biçimde bulaşmasına ve ölümlere neden olurken diğer taraftan ekonomik anlamda işyerlerinin kapanmasını, işsizlik artışlarını ve iş kayıplarını beraberinde getirmektedir. Ayrıca salgın, psikolojik sorunlara da yol açmakta ve endüstri ilişkiler sistemlerini ve çalışma biçimlerini değişime uğratmaktadır. Doğrusunu söylemek gerekirse; Kovid-19’un her şeyde köklü bir değişime işaret ettiği belirtilmekte ve bu yeni durum “yeni normal” olarak adlandırılmaktadır. Çalışmada “işsizlik”, “işgücüne katılım”, “sağlık sigortası” “işsizlik sigortası”, “istihdam”, “sosyal koruma” ve “uzaktan çalışma” parametreleri temelinde Kovid-19 salgınının gelişmekte olan bir ülke konumundaki Türkiye işgücü piyasası üzerindeki etkileri incelenmektedir. Bahse konu kriterler, pandemi sonrası yazın dikkate alınarak geliştirilmiştir. İşgücü piyasası analizi yapılırken araştırmacı, Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu, İŞKUR, OECD ve Dünya Bankası gibi yerel ve global veri merkezleri tarafından açıklanan geleneksel ve geleneksel olmayan verileri kullanmıştır. Adı geçen veri seti, Kovid-19 sonrası Türkiye işgücü piyasalarının değerlendirilmesine ilişkin nihai bir çerçeve sunmaktadır. Bu krizin olumsuz etkilerini azaltmak ve dersler çıkarmak adına ayrıca çalışmada araştırmacılara, politika yapıcılara ve yöneticilere tavsiyelerde de bulunulmuştur.

Kaynakça

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SNAPSHOT of COVID-19 GLOBAL PANDEMIC and ITS INFLUENCE on LABOR MARKETS: EVIDENCE from ADMINISTRATIVE DATA in TURKEY

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1, 92 - 111, 31.03.2021
https://doi.org/10.29106/fesa.840622

Öz

The main objective of the paper is to take the snapshot of Covid-19 infection and its dramatic influence on labor markets in Turkey as a whole. Coronavirus pandemic, which hit the world economy and labor markets in a devastating manner, has turned into a significant threat that shapes health concerns and economic activities at the same time. In a way, it forces people to make choices between their health and economic welfare, which is a big dilemma for all. It brings about quick infections as well as deaths pharmaceutically, and business lockdowns, unemployment growth, and job loses financially. It results in psychological disorders and it also changes industrial relations systems and the way of work. Frankly speaking, it is to be noted that it connotates a radical modification in everything and so this new case is called “new normal”. This paper attempts to uncover Covid-19 and its direct impact on labor markets for an emerging economy like Turkey on the basis of some certain criteria such as “unemployment”, “labor force participation”, “health insurance claims”, “employment outlooks”, “unemployment insurance coverages”, “social protection”, “telecommuting”, and so forth. These criteria were developed in parallel to the academic literature written following the pandemic. While making an analysis, the researcher used traditional and non-traditional data from local and global data centers including Turkstat (Turkish Statistical Institute), Iskur (Turkish Employment Agency), OECD, and World Bank. These dataset give an ultimate framework for the assessment of Turkish labor markets (TLMs) following Covid-19. To minimize the shocks of this crisis and to derive some lessons, implications for managers, economy officials, and the policy makers are available in the research.

Kaynakça

  • Aaronson, D., Brave, S. A., Butters, R. A., & Fogarty, M. (2020). The stay-at-home labor market: Google searches, unemployment insurance, and public health orders. Chicago Fed Letter forthcoming. 436, pp. 1-7. https://doi.org/10.21033/cfl-2020-436.
  • Alker, J. C., Kenney, G. M., & Rosenbaum, S. (2020). Children’s Health Insurance Coverage: Progress, Problems, And Priorities For 2021 And Beyond: Study examines children's health insurance coverage. Health Affairs, 39(10), pp. 1743-1751.
  • Allington, D., Duffy, B., Wessely, S., Dhavan, N., & Rubin, J. (2020). Health-protective behaviour, social media usage and conspiracy belief during the COVID-19 public health emergency. Psychological medicine, https://doi.org/10.1017/S003329172000224X, pp. 1-7.
  • Alon, T. M., Doepke, M., Olmstead-Rumsey, J., & Tertilt, M. (2020). The impact of COVID-19 on gender equality (No. w26947). National Bureau of Economic Research. Cambridge, MA, pp. 1-37.
  • Altig, D., Baker, S., Barrero, J. M., Bloom, N., Bunn, P., Chen, S.,Davis, S. J., Leather, J., Meyer, B., Mihaylov, E., Mizen, P., Parker, N., Renault, T. Smietenka, P. & Thwaites, G. (2020). Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Journal of Public Economics, 191, pp. 1-13.
  • Altonji, J., Contractor, Z., Finamor, L., Haygood, R., Lindenlaub, I., Meghir, C., O’Dea, C., Scott, D., Wang, L., & Washington, E. (2020). Employment Effects of Unemployment Insurance Generosity During the Pandemic. Yale University Tobin Center for Economic Policy, pp.1-24.
  • Angelucci, M., Angrisani, M., Bennett, D. M., Kapteyn, A., & Schaner, S. G. (2020). Remote Work and the Heterogeneous Impact of COVID-19 on Employment and Health (No. w27749). National Bureau of Economic Research. Cambridge MA, pp. 1-32.
  • Atkeson, A. (2020). What will be the economic impact of covid-19 in the us? rough estimates of disease scenarios (No. w26867). National Bureau of Economic Research
  • Banthin, J., Simpson, M., Buettgens, M., Blumberg, L. J., & Wang, R. (2020). Changes in Health Insurance Coverage Due to the COVID-19 Recession: Preliminary Estimates Using Microsimulation. Washington, DC: Urban Institute, pp. 1-9.
  • Barnichon, R., & Yee, W. (2020). Adjusting the Unemployment Thermometer. FRBSF Economic Letter, 2020(27), pp. 1-5.
  • Bartik, A. W., Bertrand, M., Lin, F., Rothstein, J., & Unrath, M. (2020). Measuring the labor market at the onset of the COVID-19 crisis (No. w27613). National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper, No 2020-2, pp. 1-29.
  • Bauer, J. (2020). Changes to Unemployment Insurance Would Help Oregon Cope with COVID-19. Oregon Center for Public Policy (OCPP), pp. 1-4.
  • Béland, L. P., Brodeur, A., Wright, T., (2020). The Short-Term Economic Consequences of COVID-19: Exposure to Disease, Remote Work and Government Response, IZA Discussion Papers, No. 13159, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn, pp. 1-90.
  • Beland, L. P., Fakorede, O., & Mikola, D. (2020). Short-Term Effect of COVID-19 on Self-Employed Workers in Canada. Canadian Public Policy, 46(1), pp. 66-81.
  • Bernstein, J., Richter, A. W., & Throckmorton, N. (2020). Covid-19: A view from the labor market, pp. 1-23.
  • Brenner, M. H. (2020). Will There Be an Epidemic of Corollary Illnesses Linked to a COVID-19–Related Recession?. American Journal of Public Health, 110(7), pp. 974-976.
  • Brodeur, A., Gray, D. M., Islam, A., & Bhuiyan, S. (2020). A Literature Review of the Economics of COVID-19. GLO Discussion Paper, No 601, Global Labor Organization, Essen, pp. 1-71.
  • Brody, D. (1989). Labor history, industrial relations, and the crisis of American labor. ILR Review, 43(1), pp. 7-18.
  • Brynjolfsson, E., Horton, J. J., Ozimek, A., Rock, D., Sharma, G., & TuYe, H. Y. (2020). COVID-19 and remote work: an early look at US data (No. w27344). National Bureau of Economic Research.Cambridge, MA. pp.1-25.
  • Caduff, C. (2020). What Went Wrong: Corona and the World after the Full Stop. Medical Anthropology Quarterly, pp. 1-21, DOI: 10.1111/maq.12599.
  • Campello, M., Kankanhalli, G., & Muthukrishnan, P. (2020). Corporate hiring under covid-19: Labor market concentration, downskilling, and income inequality (No. w27208). National Bureau of Economic Research, pp. 1-44.
  • Caperna, G., Colagrossi, M., Geraci, A., & Mazzarella, G. (2020). Googling Unemployment During the Pandemic: Inference and Nowcast Using Search Data. Available at SSRN 3627754, pp. 1-26.
  • Cheng, W., Carlin, P., Carroll, J., Gupta, S., Rojas, F. L., Montenovo, L., Nguyen, T D., Schmutte I.M., Scrivner, O., Simon, K. I., Wing, C., &Weinberg, B., (2020). Back to business and (re) employing workers? Labor market activity during state COVID-19 reopenings (No. w27419). National Bureau of Economic Research, pp. 1-50.
  • Chetty, R., Friedman, J. N., Hendren, N., & Stepner, M. (2020). How did covid-19 and stabilization policies affect spending and employment? a new real-time economic tracker based on private sector data (No. w27431). National Bureau of Economic Research.
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  • Costa Dias, M., Joyce, R., Postel‐Vinay, F., & Xu, X. (2020). The challenges for labour market policy during the Covid‐19 pandemic. Fiscal Studies, 41(2), pp. 371-382.
  • Cowan, B. W. (2020). Short-run Effects of COVID-19 on US Worker Transitions (No. w27315). National Bureau of Economic Research. Cambridge, MA. pp. 1-16.
  • Crayne, M. P. (2020). The traumatic impact of job loss and job search in the aftermath of COVID-19. Psychological Trauma: Theory, Research, Practice and Policy, pp. 1-12.
  • Daly, M. C., Buckman, S. R., & Seitelman, L. M. (2020). The Unequal Impact of COVID-19: Why Education Matters. FRBSF Economic Letter, 2020, 17, pp. 1-5.
  • Erne, R. (2013). National unionism and union democracy in crisis. Labor History, 54(4), pp. 471-476.
  • Ferguson, N., Laydon, D., Nedjati Gilani, G., Imai, N., Ainslie, K., Baguelin, M., Bhatia, S., Boonyasiri, A., Cucunuba Perez, Z., Cuomo-Dannenburg, G., Dighe, A., Dorigatti, I., Fu, H., Gaythorpe, K., Green, W., Hamlet, A., Hinsley, W., Okell, L., Van Elsland, S., … Ghani, A. (2020). Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand. Imperial College London. https://doi.org/10.25561/77482.
  • Ferreiro, J., & Serrano, F. (2013). Labor Flexibility, Inequality, and Financial Crisis. Journal of economic issues, 47(2), pp. 567-574.
  • Forsythe, E., Kahn, L. B., Lange, F., & Wiczer, D. (2020). Labor demand in the time of COVID-19: Evidence from vacancy postings and UI claims. Journal of Public Economics, 189, pp. 1-7.
  • Fullana, M. A., Hidalgo-Mazzei, D., Vieta, E., & Radua, J. (2020). Coping behaviors associated with decreased anxiety and depressive symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown. Journal of Affective Disorders, 275, pp. 80-81.
  • Garrett, A. B., & Gangopadhyaya, A. (2020). How the COVID-19 Recession Could Affect Health Insurance Coverage. Washington, DC: Urban Institute, pp. 1-12.
  • Gentilini, U., Almenfi, M., Dale, P. Blomquist, J. Natarajan, H. Galicia, G. Palacios, R., & Desai, V. (2020). Social Protection and Jobs Responses to COVID-19. A Real Time Review of Country Measures, Worldbank Living Paper Version.
  • Gilbertson, K. M., Frazee-Bench, M., Falcone, M. A., Saladino, C. J., Brown, W. E. (2020). COVID 19:Unemployment Claims in the Mountain West. Economic Development & Workforce Fact Sheet No. 22, pp. 1-2.Available at: https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/bmw_lincy_econdev/23.
  • Hedin, T. J., Schnorr, G., & Von Wachter, T. (2020). An Analysis of Unemployment Insurance Claims in California During the COVID-19 Pandemic. California Policy Lab policy brief. pp. 1-18.
  • https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html (Accessed October 27, 2020).
  • https://www.aa.com.tr (Accessed November 4, 2020).
  • https://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr (Accessed November 4, 2020).
  • https://www.google.com/COVID19/mobility (Accessed November 2, 2020).
  • https://www.iskur.gov.tr (Accessed November 9, 2020).
  • https://www.sozcu.com.tr (Accessed November 4, 2020).
  • https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/a-visual-history-of-pandemics (Accessed October 30, 2020).
  • Huang, A., Makridis, C., Baker, M., Medeiros, M., & Guo, Z. (2020). Understanding the impact of COVID-19 intervention policies on the hospitality labor market. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 91, pp. 1-9.
  • ISKUR, Monthly Statistical Bulletin. ISKUR, Unemployment Insurance Fund Statistical Bulletin, (September 2020). Jackson, P., & Ortego-Marti, V. (2020). Skill Loss during Unemployment and the Scarring Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic (No. 202020), pp. 1-27.
  • Jain, R., Budlender, J., Zizzamia, R., & Bassier, I. (2020). The labor market and poverty impacts of covid-19 in South Africa, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit (SALDRU), Working Paper Series 264(1), pp. 1-43.
  • Jungmann, S. M., & Witthöft, M. (2020). Health anxiety, cyberchondria, and coping in the current COVID-19 pandemic: Which factors are related to coronavirus anxiety?. Journal of Anxiety Disorders, 73, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.janxdis.2020.102239.
  • Juranek, S., Paetzold, J., Winner, H., & Zoutman, F. (2020). Labor market effects of COVID-19 in Sweden and its neighbors: Evidence from novel administrative data. NHH Dept. of Business and Management Science Discussion Paper, (2020/8), pp. 1-18.
  • Kapoor, R. (2020). COVID-19 and the State of India’s Labour Market. ICRIER Policy Series, 18, pp. 1-29. Karadeniz, O. (2012). "Extension of Health Services Coverage for Needy in Turkey: From Social Assistance to General Health Insurance." Journal of Social Security 2(2), pp.103-123.
  • Karpman, M., Zuckerman, S., & Peterson, G. (2020). Adults in Families Losing Jobs during the Pandemic Also Lost Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance. Washington, DC: Urban Institute, pp. 1-14.
  • Kaufmann, D. (2020). Does government-backed lending prevent unemployment? An assessment of the Swiss COVID-19 lending program (No. 20-10). IRENE Institute of Economic Research, pp. 1-19.
  • Kurmann, A., Lale, E., & Ta, L. (2020). The impact of covid-19 on us employment and hours: Real-time estimates with homebase data. pp. 1- 15. http://www. andrekurmann. com/hb_covid.
  • Labrague, L. J., & De los Santos, J. A. A. (2020). COVID‐19 anxiety among front‐line nurses: Predictive role of organisational support, personal resilience and social support. Journal of nursing management, 28(7), pp. 1653-1661.
  • Larson, W. D., & Sinclair, T. M. (2020). Nowcasting unemployment insurance claims in the time of COVID-19. Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA) Working Paper, pp. 1-32.
  • Lemieux, T., Milligan, K., Schirle, T., & Skuterud, M. (2020). Initial impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Canadian labour market. Canadian Public Policy, 46(1), pp. 55-65.
  • Luchetti, M., Lee, J. H., Aschwanden, D., Sesker, A., Strickhouser, J. E., Terracciano, A., & Sutin, A. R. (2020). The trajectory of loneliness in response to COVID-19. American Psychologist, 75(7), pp. 897-908.
  • Madhav, N., Oppenheim, B., Gallivan, M., Mulembakani, P., Rubin, E., & Wolfe, N. (2017). Pandemics: Risks, Impacts, and Mitigation. In D. T. Jamison, H. Gelband, S. Horton, P. Jha, R. Laxminarayan, C. N. Mock, & R. Nugent (Eds.), Disease Control Priorities: Improving Health and Reducing Poverty (3rd ed.). The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK525302.
  • Mazza, M. G., De Lorenzo, R., Conte, C., Poletti, S., Vai, B., Bollettini, I., ... & Benedetti, F. (2020). Anxiety and depression in COVID-19 survivors: Role of inflammatory and clinical predictors. Brain, behavior, and immunity, 89, pp. 594-600.
  • McGuinness, S., & Kelly, E. (2020). Managing Mass Unemployment Flows Durıng The Covıd-19 Pandemic. Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) Survey and Statistical Report Series, No 95, pp. 1-28, DOI: https://doi.org/10.26504/sustat95.
  • Montenovo, L., Jiang, X., Rojas, F. L., Schmutte, I. M., Simon, K. I., Weinberg, B. A., & Wing, C. (2020). Determinants of disparities in covid-19 job losses (No. w27132). National Bureau of Economic Research, pp. 1-17.
  • Pagones, J. (2013). The European Union's Response to the Sovereign Debt Crisis: Its Effect on Labor Relations in Greece. Fordham Int'l LJ, 36, pp. 1517-1554.
  • Park, B. G. (2001). Labor regulation and economic change: a view on the Korean economic crisis. Geoforum, 32(1), pp. 61-75.
  • Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas, Robert G. Valletta. (2020). “Unemployment Paths in a Pandemic Economy,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2020-18, pp. 1-20. https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2020-18.
  • Pissarides, C. (2020). As Covid-19 accelerates automation, how do we stop the drift into long-term unemployment?. LSE Business Review, pp. 1-3.
  • Pullen, L. C. (2020). Pandemic‐related unemployment impacts transplant in the US. American Journal of Transplantation, 20, pp. 1957-1958.
  • Qiu, Y., Chen, X., & Shi, W. (2020). Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in China. MedRxiv, 2020.03.13.20035238. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.13.20035238.
  • Quimby, I. M. (1967). The Cordwainers Protest: A Crisis in Labor Relations. Winterthur Portfolio, 3, pp. 83-101.
  • Rakhmanov, O., Demir, A., & Dane, S. (2020). A brief communication: anxiety and depression levels in the staff of a Nigerian private university during COVID 19 pandemic outbreak. J Res Med Dent Sci, 8, pp. 118-122.
  • Republic of Turkey, Social Security Institution, Monthly Statistical Bulletin, (August 2020), available at http://www.sgk.gov.tr/wps/portal (Accessed November 5, 2020).
  • Rojas, F. L., Jiang, X., Montenovo, L., Simon, K. I., Weinberg, B. A., & Wing, C. (2020). Is the cure worse than the problem itself? immediate labor market effects of covid-19 case rates and school closures in the us (No. w27127). National Bureau of Economic Research, pp. 1-17.
  • Roy, D., Tripathy, S., Kar, S. K., Sharma, N., Verma, S. K., & Kaushal, V. (2020). Study of knowledge, attitude, anxiety & perceived mental healthcare need in Indian population during COVID-19 pandemic. Asian Journal of Psychiatry, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ajp.2020.102083.
  • Ruiz Estrada, M. A. (2020). From Inemployment to Unemployment Worldwide: Post-COVID-19. Available at SSRN 3612663, pp. 1-16.
  • Schulze-Cleven, T. (2018). A Continent in Crisis: European Labor and the Fate of Social Democracy. Labor Studies Journal, 43(1), pp. 46-73.
  • Shalev, M. (1984). Labor, state and crisis: An Israeli case study. Industrial Relations, 23(3), pp. 362-386.
  • Shanafelt, T., Ripp, J., & Trockel, M. (2020). Understanding and addressing sources of anxiety among health care professionals during the COVID-19 pandemic. Jama, 323(21), pp. 2133-2134.
  • Stevenson, B. (2020). The Initial Impact of COVID-19 on Labor Market Outcomes Across Groups and the Potential for Permanent Scarring. The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, pp. 1-12.
Toplam 80 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Hasan Yüksel 0000-0001-8736-586X

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Mart 2021
Gönderilme Tarihi 14 Aralık 2020
Kabul Tarihi 14 Mart 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Yüksel, H. (2021). SNAPSHOT of COVID-19 GLOBAL PANDEMIC and ITS INFLUENCE on LABOR MARKETS: EVIDENCE from ADMINISTRATIVE DATA in TURKEY. Finans Ekonomi Ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 6(1), 92-111. https://doi.org/10.29106/fesa.840622