The Causal Relationship Between Temperature Change And Food Indices In The World

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 04 Sayı: 1, 10 - 15, 31.08.2020

Nevra Alhas Eroğlu , Mehmet Bozoğlu , Uğur Başer , Bakiye Kılıç Topuz

https://doi.org/10.34110/forecasting.660525

Öz

The effects of temperature change on different sectors have been one of the most essential problems in the last decades. Agricultural sector is definitely the most fragile sector of all, not only production of food causes temperature change but also temperature change led to the instability of production and prices. The objective of this study was to analyse the relationship between temperature change and production or price indices in the world for the period of 1990-2016. The time series of temperature change, Food Price Index and Gross Production Index for foods were obtained from the database of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Johansen cointegration and Granger causality analysis were used to evaluate relations between the indicators in the short and long runs. The results of the study indicated that temperature change, Food Price Index and Gross Production Index for foods were cointegrated and so they move together in the long run. On the other hand, Granger causality analysis highlighted that there is unidirectional causality runs from temperature change to both Food Price Index and Gross Production Index for foods and at the same time from Gross Production Index for foods to Food Price Index. This research concluded that temperature has an essential effect both on agricultural production and prices, whereas food prices are sensitive to production. Therefore, the environmentally friendly technologies should be developed and applied in agricultural sector. However, the food prices could be regulated via production controls which take temperature change into consideration.

Anahtar Kelimeler

temperature change, food price index, gross production index, cointegration, causality

Kaynakça

• FAO, 2019a. Food and Agriculture Organization, http://www.fao.org/economic/ess/environment/data/ temperature-hange/en/ (Accessed: 28.09.2019).
• F. P. Lansigan, W. L. de los Santos, J. O. Coladilla, “Agronomic impacts of climate variability on rice production in the Philippines”, Agric. Ecosyst. Environ, vol.82, (2000), pp.129–137.
• C. C. Chang, “The potential impact of climate change on Taiwan’s agriculture”, Agric. Econ, vol.27, (2002), 51–64.
• G. A. Gbetibouo and R. M. Hassan, “Measuring the economic impact of climate change on major South African crops: a Ricardian approach”, Global Planet. Change, vol.47, (2005), 143–152.
• P. Kurukulasuriya and M. I. Ajwad, “Application of the Ricardian technique to estimate the impact of climate change on smallholder farming in Sri Lanka”, Clim. Change, vol.81, (2007), 39–59.
• J. K. Kabubo-Mariara and F. K. Karanja, “The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture: a Ricardian approach”, Global Planet. Change, vol.57, (2007), 319– 330.
• D. Haim, M. Shechter, P. Berliner, “Assessing the impact of climate change on representative field crops in Israel agriculture: a case study of wheat and cotton”, Clim. Change, vol.86, (2008), 425–440.
• A. Sanghi and R. Mendelsohn, “The impact of global warming on farmers in Brazil and India”, Global Environ. Change, vol.18, (2008), 655–665.
• T. T. Deressa and R. M. Hassan, “Economic impact of climate change on crop production in Ethiopia: evidence from cross-section measures”, J. Afr. Econ, vol.18, (2009), 529–554.
• E. L. Moula, “An empirical assessment of the impact of climate change on smallholder agriculture in Cameroon”, Global Planet. Change, vol.67, (2009), 205–208.
• J. Wang, R. Mendelsohn, A. Dinar, J. Huang, S. Rozelle, L. Zhang, “The impact of climate change on China’s agriculture”, Agric. Econ., vol.40, (2009), 323–337.
• M. Bozoğlu, U. Başer, N. Alhas Eroglu, B. Kılıç Topuz, “Impacts of Climate Change on Turkish Agriculture”, J. Int. Environmental Application & Science, vol.14, no.3, (2019), 97-103.
• M. Isik and S. Devadoss, “An analysis of the impact of climate change on crop yields and yield variability”, Appl. Econ, vol.38, (2006), 835–844.
• D. B. Lobell and C. B. Field, “Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the impacts of recent warming”, Environ. Res. Lett, vol.2, (2007), 1–7.
• J. J. Almaraz, F. Mabood, X. Zhou, E. G. Gregorich, D. J. Smith, “Climate change, weather variability and corn yield at a higher latitude locale: South-western Quebec”, Clim. Change, vol.88, (2008), 187–197.
• B. Ozkan and H. Akcaoz, “Impacts of climate factors on yields for selected crops in Southern Turkey”, Mitig. Adapt. Strat. Glob. Change, vol.7, (2002), 367–380.
• D. B. Lobell, K. N. Cahill, C. B. Field, “Historical effects of temperature and precipitation on California crop yields”, Clim. Change, vol.81, (2007), 187–203.
• M. A. R. Sarker, K. Alam, J. Gow, “Exploring the relationship between climate change and rice yield in Bangladesh: An analysis of time series data”, Agricultural Systems, vol.112, (2012), 11-16.
• FAO, 2019b. Food and Agriculture Organization, World Food Situation, FAO Food Price Index. http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/ foodpricesindex/en/ (Accessed: 28.09.2019).
• FAO, 2019c. Food and Agriculture Organization, Databases, Production, Production Indices. http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QI (Accessed: 28.09.2019).
• FAO, 2019d. Food and Agriculture Organization, Databases, Agri-Environmental Indicators, Temperature change. http://www.fao.org/ faostat/en/#data/ET (Accessed: 28.09.2019).
• Johansen, 1998. Statistical Analysis of Cointegrating Vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 12, pp.231-254.
• G. Dwyer, 2015, “The Johansen Tests for Cointegration.” Retrieved on the 24.02.2018 from http://www.jerrydwyer.com/pdf/ Clemson/Cointegration.pdf.
• C. W. J. Granger, Investigating Casual Relations by Econometric Models an Cross Spectral Methods”, Econometrica, vol.37, (1969), 424-438.