Ekonomik Büyüme, FinansalGelişme ve Hanehalkı Borçluluğunaİlişkin Bir Değerlendirme

Yıl 2017, Sayı: 629, 77 - 86, 01.07.2017

Evrim İmer-ertunga

Öz

Çalışmanın amacı finansal gelişme (veya özel sektöre verilen kredilerin GSYİH’ye oranı) ile hanehalkı borçluluğunun 13 G-20 ülkesinin ekonomik büyümesi üzerindeki etkisini incelemektir. 2002-2013 arasındaki yıllık verilerin kullandıldığı incelemede ABD, İngiltere, Japonya, Kore, Kanada, Avustralya, Almanya, Fransa, İtalya, Meksika, Brezilya, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye ele alınmıştır. Ekonomik büyüme üzerinde etkisi olabileceği düşünülen bazı değişkenler havuzlanmış tahmin yöntemi ile incelenmiştir. İncelemede 2008 sonrası dönem için özel sektöre verilen kredilerin GSYİH’ye oranı ele alınan ülkelerdeki ekonomik canlanmayı olumsuz etkilediği görülmüştür. Ayrıca 2002-2013 dönemi ile 2002-2007 dönemine ilişkin tahminler ise ekonomik büyümeyi açıklayıcı olarak kullanılan değişkenlerden bir diğeri olan olan hanehalkı borçluluk oranının, ekonomik büyümeyi olumlu yönde etkilediğine; dolayısıyla ele alınan ülkelerin ekonomik büyümesinde hane halkının finansal kanallarının da rol oynadığına ışık tutmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik büyüme, finansal gelişme, hanehalkı borçluluğu, G-20, havuzlanmış tahmin

An Assessment for the Economic Growth, Financial Development and Household Indebtedness

Öz

This study aims to investigate the impacts of financial development (i.e. the ratio of domestic credit to private sector as a percent of GDP) and household indebtedness on the output growth of the 13 G-20 countries. Yearly database covers the period 2002-2013 for the USA, the UK, Japan, Korea, Canada, Australia, Germany, France, Italy, Mexico, Brazil, South Africa and Turkey. Pooled estimation technique is used in the detection of the effects of some of the possible variables related to economic growth. Estimations show that the ratio of domestic credit to private sector affects the revival of the economic growth negatively after 2008. Moreover, the results for the period 2002-2013 and between 2002 and 2017 reveal that household indebtedness has positive effect on economic growth. Therefore, this evidence may shed light on the affirmative influence of the channel of households finance on the economic growth of these countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic growth, financial development, household indebtedness, G-20, poled estimation

Kaynakça

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