Making Sense of the Decrease in the Turkish Saving Rate

Yıl 2017, Sayı: 625, 91 - 103, 01.03.2017

Mevlüt Tatlıyer

Öz

Turkish saving rate declined radically in the 2000s. Aggregate saving for a country amounts to the part of GDP not spent on perishable goods, but spent on investment goods. That is, aggregate saving is totally expenditure as well. At the final analysis, one can argue that every expenditure that is not subject to perishable consumption and yields utility in any way in the future is investment. Overall, half of the decline in aggregate saving rate in Turkey in the 2000s is accounted for by higher expenditures concerning education, health and R&D, while the other half emanates from increases in consumption of durable goods. Therefore, the decrease in the “narrowly defined” saving rate in the 2000s is not as important a concern as usually assumed. Moreover, this “decrease” harbors significantly positive elements if one takes into account the importance of education, health and R&D.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Saving, Investment, Education, Health, R&D

Türkiye’nin Tasarruf OranındakiDüşüş Ne Anlama Geliyor?

Öz

Türkiye’nin tasarruf oranının 2000’li yıllarda önemli ölçüde düştüğü bir vakıadır. Tasarruf konusu sanıldığından çok daha karmaşık bir konudur. Kişisel tasarruf bir kişinin gelirinin harcamadığı bölümüne karşılık gelirken, ülke tasarrufu GSYH’nin yatırım yapılan, başka bir deyişle hazır tüketime harcanmayan kısmını göstermektedir. Yani, ülke tasarrufu da aslında tamamiyle harcamadır. GSYH’yi oluşturan harcamaların niteliğine (hazır tüketim mi yatırım mı olduğuna) karar vermek tasarruf oranına da karar vermek anlamına gelmektedir. Bu açıdan, tek bir tasarruf tanımı yoktur. Nihai tahlilde, hazır tüketime konu olmayan ve bir şekilde gelecekte fayda sağlayan her harcama yatırımdır. 2000’li yıllarda tasarruf oranındaki düşüşün yaklaşık yarısı eğitim, sağlık ve Ar-Ge, diğer yarısı ise dayanıklı tüketim harcamalarındaki artıştan kaynaklanmaktadır. Bu açıdan, “dar tanımlı” tasarruf oranının 2000’lerde ciddi şekilde düşmesi, sanıldığı kadar endişe edilecek bir durum değildir. Hatta bu “düşüşün”; eğitim, sağlık ve Ar-Ge’nin önemi hesaba katıldığında, içinde önemli düzeyde pozitif öğeler barındırdığı görülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tasarruf, Yatırım, Eğitim, Sağlık, Ar-Ge

Kaynakça

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