Finansal Gelişmişlik ve Beşeri Sermaye Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye için Zaman Serileri Analizi (1971-2013)

Yıl 2017, Sayı: 624, 25 - 39, 01.02.2017

N. Savaş Demirci Deniz Özyakışır

Öz

Finansal gelişmişlik ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiler üzerine birçok çalışma ortaya konmuş fakat finansal gelişmişlik ve modern içsel büyüme teorilerine göre ekonomik büyümenin başlıca kaynaklarından biri olan beşeri sermaye arasındaki ilişki gözlerden büyük ölçüde kaçmıştır. Bu noktada ekonomik büyüme ile yakın ilişki içinde bulunan bu iki değişken arasındaki ilişkinin de incelenmesi gerekmektedir. Çalışmada tarafımızdan oluşturulan beşeri sermaye endeksi ve finansal gelişmişlik göstergesi olarak finansal sektör tarafından kullandırılan kredilerin GSYİH’ya % oranı arasındaki ilişkiler, 1971-2013 dönemi yıllık verileriyle Türkiye için Johansen eşbütünleşme testi ve VECM’ye dayalı Granger nedensellik testi ile araştırılmıştır. Ekonometrik analiz sonuçları; finansal gelişmişlik ve beşeri sermayenin eşbütünleşik olduğunu, aralarında uzun dönemde pozitif bir ilişkinin bulunduğunu ve kısa ve uzun dönemde beşeri sermayeden finansal gelişmişliğe doğru nedenselliğin varlığını göstermektedir. Bu bağlamda beşeri sermayeye yapılacak yatırımların uzun vadede ülkemizde finansal gelişmişlik düzeyini artıracağı söylenebilir

Anahtar Kelimeler

Finansal gelişmişlik, Beşeri sermaye, Eşbütünleşme, Nedensellik, Vektör Hata Düzeltme Modeli (VECM)

The Relationship Between Financial Development and Human Capital: Time Series Analysis for Turkey (1971-2013)

Öz

There are many articles about the relationship between financial development and economic growth but the relationship between financial development and human capital which is one of the sources of economic growth according to modern endogenous growth theories has been largely overlooked. At this point the relationship between these two variables that have close connections with economic growth should be examined. In this article the relationship between human capital index that we have generated and domestic credits provided by financial sector (% of GDP) have been analysed for Turkey with 1971-2013 annual data by using Johansen cointegration test and VECM based Granger causality test. Econometric analysis results show that financial development and human capital are cointegrated, there is a positive relationship between these variables and causality from human capital to financial development in the short and long run. In this context we can say that human capital investments will increase the level of financial development in our country in the long term

Anahtar Kelimeler

Financial development, Human capital, Cointegration, Causality, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

Kaynakça

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