Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımı, İşçi Dövizleri ve Bankacılık Sektörü Gelişimi: Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2014, Sayı: 598, 9 - 17, 01.12.2014

İlhan Ege Serkan Şahin

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı gelişmekte olan ekonomilerden biri olan Türkiye için işçi dövizleri, doğrudan yabancı yatırımları ve bankacılık sektörünün gelişimi arasındaki ilişkilerin araştırılmasıdır. Söz konusu değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler 19742012 arasındaki yıllık veriler kullanılarak Toda Yamamoto (1995) tarafından geliştirilen nedensellik analizi yardımıyla incelenmiştir. Uzun dönemde Toda Yamamoto (1995), kısa dönemde etki-tepki, yöntemlerine dayanan analizler sonucu elde edilen bulgular kredi hacminden doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarına doğru tek yönlü bir nedenselliğin varlığına işaret etmektedir. Bir başka ifadeyle, artan kredi hacimleri doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarını çekmektedir. Çalışma kapsamında beklenen bir sonuç olarak bankacılık sektörü mevduat birikimlerinin kredi hacimlerinde artışa yol açtığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bunun yanısıra, bulgular Türk bankacılık sektörü gelişiminin işçi dövizlerinin ülkeye girişinde teşvik edici bir unsur olarak görüldüğüne işaret etmektedir. Elde edilen bulgular doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları ya da işçi dövizlerinin bankacılık sektörü gelişmi üzerindeki etksini desteklememektedir

Anahtar Kelimeler

İşçi Dövizleri, Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları

Foreign Direct Transfers, Remittances and the Development of the Banking Sector: Turkish Case

Öz

This paper aims to examine the relation between remittances, foreign direct investment (FDI) and banking sector development for a developing economy; we have more specifically chosen the case of Turkey. Using annual data from 1974 to 2012, we examine their relationship using causality analysis developed by Toda Yamamoto (1995). Our short run and long run analyses based on generalized impulse response and Toda Yamamoto Granger Non Causality approaches (1995) suggest that there is unidirectional granger causality running from credit volume to FDI. This means that increases in credit volumes leads to FDI flows to Turkey. Moreover, increase in FDI to home is seen as an incentive for worker remittances. As expected, it is found in this study that increase in deposit accounts leads to high credit volumes in Turkey. In addition, banking sector development is seen as incentive for the worker remittances. However, we could not find any evidence supporting the effect of FDI or remittances on banking sector development

Anahtar Kelimeler

Remittances, Foreign Direct Investment, Banking Sector Development

Kaynakça

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