Kırılgan - Başarısız Devlet Olgusu ve Terörizm İlişkisi

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 19 Sayı: 1, 20 - 41, 05.05.2017

Mehmet Karaçuka , Necmettin Çelik

Öz

Küreselleşen ve daha da
kompleks bir yapıya dönüşen terörizm unsurunun muhtemel dinamiklerinin
belirlenmesi terörizmle mücadelede başarı elde edilebilmesi ve sürdürülebilir
bir barış ortamının tesis edilebilmesi noktasında oldukça önemlidir. Bu açıdan
bakıldığında, terörün şiddet boyutunun hat safhada olduğu bölgelerde
kırılgan-başarısız devlet statüsündeki ülkelerin çoğunlukta olması, terörün
muhtemel dinamikleri arasında devlet başarısızlığı olgusunun olabileceğini ön
plana çıkarmaktadır. Nitekim, 2007-2011 dönemi ve Küresel Terörizm
Veritabanı’nda kayıtlı 156 ülkenin analiz edildiği Rassal Etkiler Panel
Modeli'nin bulguları kırılgan - başarısız devlet olgusu ile teröre
verilen zayiatlar gibi toplumsal ve psikolojik unsurların terörün şiddet
boyutunun tırmanması noktasında itici faktör olduklarını göstermektedir. Başka
bir ifadeyle, kırılgan-başarısız devlet olgusu ve terörizmin şiddet boyutu terörizm
unsurlarının yayılması noktasında elverişli zemin oluşturmaktadır. Dolayısıyla,
terörizmle mücadelede etkin sonuçlar alınabilmesi adına, devlet başarısızlığı
olgusuyla iktisadi ve politik açıdan mücadele edilmesi; bu doğrultuda,
özellikle komşu ülkelerle oluşturulacak bölgesel paktlar dahilinde proaktif
güvenlik önlemlerinin devreye sokulması gerekmektedir. Bununla birlikte,
ülkelerin demokratikleşme düzeyi ile terörün şiddet boyutu arasında
istatistiksel açıdan anlamlı herhangi bir bulguya ulaşılamamıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Terörizm, Küresel Terörizm Endeksi, Kırılgan Devlet Olgusu, Başarısız Devlet Olgusu

The Fragile - Failed State Phenomenon and Terrorism Relationship

Öz

The determining potential dynamics of terrorism
which globalized and became more complex structure has a vital importance in
order to establish sustainable peace and achieve success in the fight against
terrorism. So, the number of fragile-failed states is higher in regions where
there is higher violence of terrorism that rises the possibility of the
fragile-failed states phenomenonas potential dynamic of  terrorism. In the fact that the findings of
the Random Effects Panel Model on which analyzed 156 countries registered in
Global Terrorism Database over the 2007 - 2011 period indicate that terrorist
events that the phenomenon of fragile - failed state and the number of
casualties which caused by terrorism are driving factor on dramatic rises of
violence of terror. In other words, fragile-failed state phenomenon and
violence of terrorism cretae a favorable environment for spillover of
terrorism. Therefore, struggling state failure phenomenon economically and
politically; in this direction, taking proactive security measures within
regional pacts establishing especially with neighboring countries are required.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Global Terrorism Index, Fragile State Phenomenon, Failed State Phenomenon

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