UNEMPLOYMENT BY EDUCATION STATUS, PRICES AND CRIME RELATIONSHIP: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

Yıl 2014, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2, 119 - 143, 25.11.2014

Yılmaz Akdi , Yunus Emre Karamanoğlu , Afşin Şahin

https://doi.org/10.28956/gbd.283044

Cited By: 4

Öz

In this study, the
events related to official crime that have taken place in Turkey between
2005:01 and 2011:12, in monthly frequency, are tried to be explained. The
effects of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Unemployment (UNE) disaggregated by
level of education on to the number of crimes were discussed. It has been
observed that there is no long-run relationship among the number of crimes,
Consumer Price Index and total unemployment when they are considered together.
However, we observe a bivariate cointegration between the number of crimes and
the total unemployment. Then, the analysis was repeated with the total number
of unemployed status arranged in eight different levels of education. It has
been observed that the level of education is an important factor determining
the number of committed crimes. In the study; the long-term relationship has
been tested with Engle-Granger (1987) and Johansen cointegration methods.
Another finding of the analysis is that the seasonality has significant effects
on the results. For this reason, seasonal dummies were added as exogenously to
the models. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Long-Run Relationship, Cointegration, Crime Economics, Security

EĞİTİM DÜZEYİNE GÖRE İŞSİZLİK, FİYATLAR VE SUÇ İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÜZERİNE BİR UYGULAMA

Öz

Bu çalışmada Türkiye
aylık 2005: 01 ve 2011: 12 dönemi veri seti ile resmi suç olayları açıklanmaya
çalışılmaktadır. Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi (TÜFE) ve eğitim düzeyine göre İşsiz
(UNE) sayılarının suç sayıları üzerindeki etkileri incelenmektedir. Suç sayısı,
Tüketici Fiyat Endeksi ve Toplam İşsizlik arasında uzun dönem ilişki
bulunamamıştır. Hâlbuki suç sayısı ve toplam işsizlik arasında ikili
kointegrasyon ilişkisi gözlenmiştir. Daha sonra analiz sekiz farklı eğitim
düzeyine göre ayrıştırılmış işsizlik rakamlarıyla tekrarlanmıştır. Eğitim
düzeyinin işlenen suç sayısını açıklarken önemli bir değişken olduğu gözlenmiştir.
Uzun dönem ilişki Engle-Granger (1987) ve Johansen kointegrasyon yöntemleriyle
ele alınmıştır. Çalışmadaki bir diğer bulgu mevsimselliğin sonuçlar üzerindeki
anlamlı etkileridir. Bu sebeple modele dışsal olarak mevsimsel kukla
değişkenleri ilave edilmiştir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Uzun Dönem İlişki, Kointegrasyon, Suç Ekonomisi, Güvenlik

Kaynakça

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