Küresel finans sisteminin ekonomi politiğinde renminbinin uluslararasılaşma süreci

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 1, 61 - 79, 18.02.2022

Orhan Cengiz

https://doi.org/10.30855/gjeb.2022.8.1.005

Öz

II. Dünya Savaşı’ndan sonra küresel ekonomi-politik sistemin inşa edilmesinde en fazla öne çıkan ve en yoğun rekabetin yaşandığı alanlardan birisi finansal sistem olmuştur. 1970’lere kadar yürürlükte olan Bretton Woods sistemi, tüm para birimlerinin ABD dolarına endekslenmesine dayanmaktaydı. Bretton Woods sisteminin çökmesinden sonra IMF (International Monetary Fund) öncülüğünde ve yine ABD’nin hâkimiyetinde küresel finans sistemi dizayn edilmiştir. 2008 küresel krizinin ABD finans sisteminin işleyişinden kaynaklanması, küresel finans sisteminden duyulan rahatsızlığı artırmıştır. Bu süreçten sonra küresel finans sisteminde aktif rol almak isteyen Çin, renminbinin (RMB) uluslararasılaşma sürecini başlatmıştır. RMB’nin uluslararasılaşması sadece ekonomik motivasyonları içermemekte bunun yanında, askeri ve politik hedeflerin gerçekleştirilmesine de odaklanmaktadır. Bu çalışma, yeni küresel finans sisteminin inşa edilmesinde Çin’in RMB’yi uluslararasılaştırma politikasını ele almaktadır. Çalışmanın ortaya koyduğu en temel sonuç şu şekilde özetlenebilir: Küresel finans sisteminin dönüşümü açısından Çin’in geliştirdiği argümanlar oldukça önemli olmakla birlikte, ulusal ekonomideki yapısal dönüşümlerin gerekliliği ve bölgesel açıdan yaşadığı jeopolitik riskler, ulaşmak istediği hedefleri sınırlamaktadır. Bu sınırlılıklara rağmen Çin’in uzun vadede küresel finans sisteminde dar kapsamlı da olsa söz sahibi olacağı öngörülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

renminbi (RMB), küresel finans, uluslararasılaşma, Çin

Renminbi’s internationalization process in the political economy of the global financial system

Öz

After World War II, the financial system has been one of the most prominent and intensely competitive areas in constructing the global economic-political system. The Bretton Woods system, in force until the 1970s, was based on pegging all currencies to the US dollar. After the collapse of Bretton Woods system, the global financial system was designed under the IMF’s leadership and the USA’s domination. The 2008 global crisis that arose due to the functioning of the US financial system increased the disorder in the global financial system. After this process, China, which wants to overtake an active role in the global financial system, started the renminbi (RMB)’s internationalization process. The internationalization of the RMB includes not only economic motivations but also focuses on the realization of military and political goals. This study discusses China’s internationalization policy of RMB in the construction of the new global financial system. The fundamental results of the study can be summarized as follows: Although the arguments developed by China are significant in terms of the transformation of the global financial system, the obligation of structural transformations in the national economy, and the geopolitical risks it faces from a regional perspective restrict the aims it wants to realize. Despite these limitations, it is expected that China will have a voice in the global financial system, albeit narrowly, in the long run.

Anahtar Kelimeler

renminbi (RMB), global finance, internationalization, China

Kaynakça

• Broz, J. L. ve Zhang, Z. (2018). Explaining foreign interest in China’s global economic leadership: bilateral currency swap agreements. https://www.peio.me/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/PEIO12_paper_16.pdf.
• Campanella, M. (2014). The internationalization of the Renminbi and the rise of a multipolar currency system, ECIPE Working Paper, No. 01/2014, European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE): Brussels.
• Cao, Y. (2018). Strategies for Internationalizing the Renminbi. Springer: Gateway East.
• CEIC (2021, 02 Nisan). https://www.ceicdata.com/en.
• Chao, W. C. (2016). The political economy of cooperation in Renminbi (RMB) internationalization between China and the ASEAN states: opportunity and challenge. The Chinese Economy, 49(6), 400-413. DOI: 10.1080/10971475.2016.1207966.
• Chen, W. (2018). Lost in internationalization: rise of the Renminbi, macroprudential policy, and global impacts. Journal of International Economic Law, 21, 31-66. doi: 10.1093/jiel/jgy009.
• Chey, H. K. (2013). Can the Renminbi rise as a global currency?: The political economy of currency internationalization. Asian Survey, 53(2), 348-368.
• Cohen, B. J. (1971). The seigniorage gain of an international currency: an empirical test. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 85(3), 494-507.
• dos Santos, T. C. (2019). Dollar centrality and Renminbi’s rise: challenges and prospects. EPOG Policy Brief.
• Eichengreen, B. ve Kawai, M. (2014). Issues for renminbi internationalization: an overview, ADBI Working Paper, No. 454, Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI): Tokyo.
• Eichengreen, B. ve Lombardi, D. (2017). RMBI or RMBR? Is the Renminbi destined to become a global or regional currency?. Asian Economic Papers, 16(1), 35-65.
• Garcia-Herrero, A. ve Xia, L. (2015). RMB bilateral swap agreements: how China chooses its partners?. Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics, 22(4), 368-383, DOI: 10.1080/16081625.2014.960059.
• Germain, R. ve Schwartz, H. M. (2017). The political economy of currency internationalisation: the case of the RMB. Review of International Studies, 1-23. doi:10.1017/S0260210517000109.
• Gjoza, E. (2018). RMB internationalization: implications for U.S. economic hegemony. Harvard Kennedy School, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.
• Hai, W. ve Yao, H. (2010). Pros and cons of international use of the RMB for China. In Wensheng Peng and Chang Shu (Eds.), currency internationalization: global experiences and implications for the Renminbi, (pp. 139-166). New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Hartmann, P. (2003). Currency competition and foreign exchange markets: The Dollar, the Yen and the Euro.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• IMF (2021). Currency composition of official foreign exchange reserves (COFER), Erişim, 03 Nisan 2021, https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4&sId=1408206195757.
• Jenkins, P. ve Zelenbaba, J. (2012). Internationalization of the renminbi: what it means for the stability and flexibility of the international monetary system. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 28(3), 512-531.
• Joshua, J. (2019). The Belt and Road Initiative and the global economy: volume II-the changing international financial system and implications. Palgrave Macmillan: Cham. Kazgan, G. (2015). Küreselleşme ve ulus-devlet: yeni ekonomik düzen (6. Baskı). İstanbul: İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları.
• Kenen, P. B. (2011). Currency internationalisation: An overview. BIS Papers chapters. In Bank for International Settlements (Ed.), Currency internationalisation: Lessons from the global financial crisis and prospects for the future in Asia and the Pacific (pp. 9-18). Bank for International Settlements: Basel.
• Krugman, P. (1984). The international role of the Dollar: theory and prospect. In John F. O. Bilson and Richard C. Marston (Eds.), exchange rate theory and practice (pp. 261-278). Chicago & London: The University of Chicago Press.
• Kurien, J. ve Geoxavier, B. Y. (2020). The political economy of international finance: a revised roadmap for renminbi internationalization. Erişim, 7 Mart 2021, https://www.yalejournal.org/publications/the-political-economy-of-international-finance-a-revised-roadmap-for-renminbi-internationalization.
• Lee, J. W. (2014). Will the Renminbi emerge as an international reserve currency?. The World Economy, 42-62. doi: 10.1111/twec.12092.
• Liang, Y. (2020). RMB internationalization and financing BeltRoad Initiative: an MMT perspective, The Chinese Economy, 53(4), 317-328. DOI: 10.1080/10971475.2020.1728478.
• Ly, B. (2020). The nexus of BRI and internationalization of renminbi (RMB). Cogent Business & Management, 7(1808399), 1-21. DOI: 10.1080/23311975.2020.1808399.
• McKinnon, R. I. (1979). Money in international exchange: the convertible currency system. New York: Oxford University Press.
• McKinnon, R. I. (1997). The rules of the game: International money and exchange rates. Cambridge: MIT Press.
• Mundell, R. A. (1993). EMU and the international monetary system: a transatlantic perspective, Austrian National Bank Working Paper, 13: Vienna.
• Overholt, W. H., Ma, G. ve Law, C. K. (2016). Renminbi rising: a new global monetary system emerges. West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons.
• Park, H. S. (2016). China’s RMB internationalization strategy: its rationales, state of play, prospects and implications. M-RCBG Associate Working Paper Series, No. 63.
• Powell, D. (2020). Currency internationalization: the case of the RMB. Business and Economics Honors Papers, 45, 1-57.
• Ruogu, L. (2015). Reform of the international monetary system and internationalization of the Renminbi. Toh Tuck Link: World Scientific Publishing.
• Shams, R. (2005). Dollar-Euro exchange rate 1999-2004: Dollar and Euro as international currencies. HWWA Discussion Paper, No. 321, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA): Hamburg.
• Song, Z. ve Song, H. (2012). Opportunities and challenges of Renminbi internationalization. 2nd International Conference on Social Science and Humanity, IPEDR, 31, 139-144.
• Subacchi, P. ve Oxenford, M. (2017). The ‘Belt and Road’ initiative and the London market-the next steps in Renminbi internationalization, Part 2: The view from London. Chatham House, International Economics Department Research Paper.
• Tao, S. (2019). The impact of “Belt and Road” initiative on the internationalization of Chinese Renminbi. International Journal of Contemporary Research and Review, 10(3), 21488-21493. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15520/ijcrr.v10i04.693.
• Tavlas, G. S. ve Yuzuru Ozeki, Y. (1992). The internationalization of currencies: an appraisal of the Japanese Yen. IMF Working Paper, IMF: Washington DC.
• The 13th five-year plan for economic and social development of the People’s Republic of China (2016-2020). Central Compilation & Translation Press.
• The People’s Bank of China (2020). 2020 RMB internationalization report.
• The People’s Bank of China (PBoC, 2021, 02 Nisan), http://wzdig.pbc.gov.cn:8080/search/pcRender?pageId=9ec5bab6153e41c4b50556e7fa3c09d2.
• Weber, R. H. ve Arner, D. W. (2007). Toward a new design for international financial regulation. U. Pa. J. Int’l L., 29(2), 391-453.
• World Bank (2021). World development indicator. Erişim, 2 Mayıs 2021, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.KD?locations=US-CN-1W.
• Xia, S. (2018). Path selection of Renminbi (RMB) internationalization under “The Belt and Road” (B & R) initiative. American Journal of Industrial and Business Management, 8, 667-685.
• Yu, M. (2020). China-US Trade War and Trade Talk. Gateway East: Springer.
• Yuan, J. (2019). Research on China’s One Belt and Road initiative: from the perspective of geopolitics (Master’s thesis). Faculty of Humanities, Social Science and Education. The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø.
• Zhang, F., Yu, M., Yu, J. ve Jin, Y. (2017). The effect of RMB internationalization on Belt and Road initiative: evidence from bilateral swap agreements. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 53(12), 2845-2857. DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2017.1382346.
• Zhang, L. ve Tao, K. (2014). The benefits and costs of renminbi internationalization, ADBI Working Paper, No. 481, Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI): Tokyo.
• Zhang, M. (2015). Internationalization of the Renminbi: developments, problems and influences. Centre for International Governance Innovation, New Thinking and the New G20 Series, Paper No. 2.