DOĞAL KAYNAK BOLLUĞU VE KAMU HARCAMASI İLİŞKİSİ: N-11 ÜLKELERİ İÇİN KISA VE UZUN DÖNEM ANALİZİ

Yıl 2024, , 43 - 53, 29.06.2024

Ayşe Arı , Elvan Küpeli

https://doi.org/10.48145/gopsbad.1445378

Öz

Bu çalışmada doğal kaynak bolluğunun-kamu harcaması üzerindeki etkisi ele alınmıştır. Bu amaçla N-11 ülkeleri 1996-2021 dönemi için analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada Westerlund ve Edgerton(2007) eşbütünleşme testi ile AMG uzun dönem katsayı tahmincisi kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca kısa dönem analizleri için AMG yaklaşımına dayalı hata düzeltme modeline yer verilmiştir. AMG tahmincisinin panel sonuçlarına göre, doğal kaynak bolluğunun kamu harcaması üzerindeki etkisi kısa ve uzun dönemde istatistiksel olarak anlamsızdır. Doğal kaynak laneti hipotezi sadece Filipinler ekonomisi için geçerlidir ve söz konusu etki uzun vadede görülmektedir. Bu nedenle Filipinler’de yöneticilerin doğal kaynak gelirlerini beşeri sermayeyi ya da altyapı yatırımlarını artıracak şekilde kullanmadığı söylenebilir. Bangladeş ve Güney Kore’de ise hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde doğal kaynak bolluğu kamu harcamasını pozitif etkilemektedir. Ulaşılan bu kanıtlara göre, Bangladeş ve Güney Kore’de doğal kaynak nimeti hipotezi geçerlidir. Mısır, İran, Meksika ve Türkiye örneğinde hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde doğal kaynak bolluğunun kamu harcaması üzerindeki etkisi istatistiksel olarak anlamsızdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

doğal kaynak laneti, kamu harcaması, N-11 ülkeleri

Kaynakça

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