An Analysis of the Effect of Fiscal Policies on Economic Growth within the Endogenous Growth Model Framework in Turkey

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 2, 273 - 290, 31.12.2022

Seher Gökpınar

https://doi.org/10.46849/guiibd.1209257

Öz

States may be a guide on the course of economic activities with public expenditures and tax policies. Tax policies can directly affect employment and investment through taxation of income, as well as reduce economic growth by reducing the marginal productivity of capital (physical/human) and investments. In terms of expenditure policies, both direct public investments and public expenditures have an impact on long term growth. In this study, the effects of public expenditures and taxes, which are fiscal policy instruments, on long term growth performance were investigated within the endogenous growth model framework. The empirical findings of the study, which was discussed for the years 1988-2020 within the framework of the ARDL method, showed results in the expected direction with the theory. According to the results of the analysis, public expenditures, enrolment rate, indirect taxes, labor force participation and public investments affect economic growth positively in the long term. On the other hand, direct taxes have a negative effect on economic growth.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Fiscal Policy, Tax Structure, Public Expenditure, Economic Growth

TÜRKİYE’DE MALİYE POLİTİKALARININ EKONOMİK BÜYÜMEYE ETKİSİNİN İÇSEL BÜYÜME MODELİ ÇERÇEVESİNDE ANALİZİ

Öz

Devletler kamu harcamaları ve vergi politikalarıyla ekonomik faaliyetlerin seyri üzerinde yol gösterici olabilmektedir. Vergi politikaları, gelirin vergilendirilmesi yoluyla doğrudan istihdam ve yatırımları etkileyebileceği gibi sermayenin (fiziksel/beşeri) ve yatırımların marjinal verimliliğini azaltarak da ekonomik büyümeyi düşürülebilir. Harcama politikaları açısından ise gerek doğrudan kamu yatırımları gerekse kamu harcamaları uzun dönem büyüme oranları üzerinde etkili olmaktadır. Bu çalışmada maliye politikası araçlarından kamu harcamaları ve vergilerin uzun dönem büyüme performansı üzerindeki etkisi içsel büyüme modeli çerçevesinde araştırılmıştır. ARDL yöntemi çerçevesinde 1988-2020 yılları için ele alınan çalışmanın ampirik bulguları teori ile beklenen yönde sonuçlar göstermiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre Türkiye’de kamu harcamaları, dolaylı vergiler, işgücüne katılım, okullaşma oranı ve kamu yatırımları uzun dönemde ekonomik büyümeyi pozitif yönde etkilemektedir. Öte yandan dolaysız vergiler ise ekonomik büyüme üzerinde negatif yönde bir etki göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Maliye Politikası, Vergi Yapısı, Kamu Harcamaları, Ekonomik Büyüme

Kaynakça

• Altunç, Ö. F. (2011), “Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye’ye İlişkin Ampirik Kanıtlar”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 18 (2), 145-157.
• Barro, R. J. (1991a), “Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106 (2), 407-443.
• Barro, R. J. (1990), “Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogeneous Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 98 (5, Part 2), 103-125.
• Barro, Barro, R. J. (1991b), “A Cross-Country Study of Growth, Saving, and Government”. Shoven, J. B., & Bernheim, B. D., (Eds.). National Saving and Economic Performance. University of Chicago Press.
• Barro, R. J., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (1992), “Public Finance in Models of Economic Growth”, The Review of Economic Studies, 59 (4), 645-661.
• Benos, N. (2009), “Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from EU Countries”, MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany.
• Bleaney, M., Gemmell, N., & Kneller, R. (2001), “Testing the Endogenous Growth Model: Public Expenditure, Taxation, and Growth Over the Long Run”, Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue Canadienne d'économique, 34 (1), 36-57.
• Bose, N., Haque, M. E., & Osborn, D. R. (2007), “Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Disaggregated Analysis for Developing Countries”, The Manchester School, 75(5), 533-556.
• Butkiewicz, J. L. ve Yanikkaya, H. (2011), “Institutions and the Impact of Government Spending on Growth”, Journal of Applied Economics, 14 (2), 319-341.
• Cashin, P. (1995), “Government Spending, Taxes, and Economic Growth”, IMF Staff Papers, 42 (2), 237-269.
• Devarajan S., Swaroop V., & Zou H. (1996), “The Composition of Public Expenditure and Economic Growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 37, 313-344.
• Dickey, D. & Fuller, W. A. (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root”, Journal of American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
• Dickey, D. & Fuller, W. A. (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49 (4), 1057-1072.
• Durkaya, M. ve Servet, C. (2006), “Vergi Gelirleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme”, Maliye Dergisi, Sayı 150 (Ocak-Haziran), 79-89.
• Easterly, W., & Rebelo, S. (1993), “Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 32, 417-458.
• Ecevit, E., Yücel, A. G., & Yücel, Ö. (2016), “Are Some Taxes Better than Others for Economic Growth? An ARDL Approach for Turkey”, The Empirical Economics Letters, 15 (11), 1129-1136.
• Engen, E., & Skinner, J. (1996), “Taxation and Economic Growth”, National Tax Journal, 49 (4), 617-642.
• Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987), “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 55, 251–276.
• Fahim, O., & Bourdane, Y. (2019), “Tax revenue and economic growth in Morocco: Application of ARDL approach”, Repères et Perspectives Economiques, 3 (2), 137-154.
• Gober, J. R. & Burns, J. O. (1997), “The Relationship Between Tax Structures and Economic Indicators”, Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, 6 (1), 1-24.
• Guerrini, L., (2006), “The Solow–Swan Model with a Bounded Population Growth Rate”, Journal of Mathematical Economics, 42 (1), 14-21.
• Gujarati, D. N. & Porter, D. C. (1999). Essentials of econometrics, Irwin/McGraw-Hill, 4th. Edition, Boston. Alınan yer Academia
• Gupta, S., Clements, B., Baldacci, E., & Mulas-Granados, C. (2005), “Fiscal Policy, Expenditure Composition, and Growth in Low-income Countries”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 24 (3), 441-463.
• Johansen, S. & Juselius, K. (1990), “Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration—with Applications to the Demand for Money”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169 –210.
• Jones, L., Manuelli, R., Rossi, P., (1993), “Optimal Taxation in Models of Endogenous Growth”. Journal of Political Economy, 101 (3), 485–519.
• Karras, G. (1999), “Taxes and Growth: Testing the Neoclassical and Endogenous Growth Models”, Contemporary Economic Policy, 17 (2), 177-188.
• King, R. G., & Rebelo, S. (1990), “Public Policy and Economic Growth: Developing Neoclassical Implications”, Journal of Political Economy, 98 (5, Part 2), 126-150.
• Kneller, R., Bleaney, M. F., & Gemmell, N. (1999), “Fiscal Policy and Growth: Evidence from OECD Countries”, Journal of Public Economics, 74 (2), 171-190.
• Korkmaz, S., Yilgor, M., & Aksoy, F. (2019), “The Impact of Direct and Indirect Taxes on the Growth of the Turkish Economy”, Public Sector Economics, 43 (3), 311-323.
• Lee, Y. & Gordon, R. H. (2005), “Tax Structure and Economic Growth”, Journal of Public Economics, 89 (5),1027-1043. Lucas, R., (1990), “Supply-Side Economics: An Analytical Review”, Oxford Economic Papers, 42 (2), 293–316.
• Mah, J. S. (2000), “An Empirical Examination of the Disaggregated Import Demand of Korea—the Case of Information Technology Products”, Journal of Asian economics, 11 (2), 237-244.
• Mangir, F., ve Ertuğrul, H. M. (2012), “Vergi Yükü ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: 1988-2011 Türkiye Örneği”. Maliye Dergisi, 162, 256-265.
• Mengistu, S. T. (2022), “Does Fiscal Policy Stimulate Economic Growth in Ethiopia? ARDL Approach”, Cogent Economics & Finance, 10 (1), 2104779.
• Narayan, P. K. (2004), Reformulating Critical Values for the Bounds F-statistics Approach to Cointegration:An Application to the Tourism Demand Model for Fiji, discussion papers (Victoria: Department of Economics, Monash University).
• Pesaran, H. M. & Shin, Y. (1999), Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis, in: S. Storm (Ed.) Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, chapter 11 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press).
• Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J. (2001), “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16 (3), 289-326.
• Phillips, P. C. B. & Perron, P. (1988), “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biomètrika, 75(2), 336-346.
• Shaw, G. K. (1992), “Policy Implications of Endogenous Growth Theory”, The Economic Journal, 102 (412), 611-621.
• Solow, R. M., (1956), “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 71 (1), 65-94.
• Swan, T.W., (1956), “Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation”, Economic Record, 32 (3), 334-361.
• Stokey, N. & Rebelo, S. (1995). “Growth Effects of Flat-Rate Taxes”, Journal of Political Economy, 103, 510–50
• Terzi, H. ve Yurtkuran, S. (2016), “Türkiye’de Dolaylı/Dolaysız Vergi Gelirleri ve GSYH İlişkisi”, Maliye Dergisi, 171, 19-33.
• Türk, M. M.ve Barışık, S. (2021), “Türkiye’de Vergi ve Büyüme Etkileşiminde Dolaylı-Dolaysız Vergi Ayrımı”, Efil Journal, 4 (13), 42-65.
• Ünlükaplan, İ., ve Arısoy, İ. (2011), “Vergi Yükü ve Yapısı ile İktisadi Büyüme Arasındaki Dinamik Etkileşimler Üzerine Uygulamalı Bir Analiz”, ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 38, 71-100.
• Ünsal, M. E. (2020), “Kamu Harcamaları, Kamu Gelirleri ve Kamu Borçlarının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: OECD Ülkeleri Üzerine Panel Veri Analizi”. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, (64), 53-64.
• Wet, A. H., Schoeman, N. J., & Koch, S. F. (2005), “The South African Tax Mix and Economic Growth South”. African Journal of Economics and Management Sciences (SJEMS), 8(2), 201-209.
• Widmalm, F. (2001), “Tax Structure and Growth: Are Some Taxes Better Than Others?”, Public Choice, 107 (3), 199-219.