ESTIMATION OF NUMBER OF VEHICLES AND AMOUNT OF POLLUTANTS GENERATED BY VEHICLES IN TURKEY UNTIL 2030

Yıl 2012, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 2, 495 - 503, 16.04.2012

Hamit Solmaz , İsmet Celikten

Öz

Air pollution is triggering and accelerating the global warming. In this study, the amount of the pollutants

Key Words: Vehicle emissions, pollutants, estimation of emissions,

estimation of vehicle number.

resulting from the vehicles is estimated in accordance with changes of the total number of vehicles in Turkey until 2030. The number of vehicles by 2030 is estimated according to the number of vehicles between 2001- 2007 years. The Approximate average annual kilometers of vehicles is calculated and amount of the pollutants is also calculated by using dynamic emission factors. According to result of estimation, total number of vehicles in the years 2010-2020-2030 is 11657460, 18358290, 25294090 respectively, and the amount of total exhaust emission (CO, PM, HC, NOx, SOx) is 63, 105, and 173 million tons respectively. Total amount of pollutants in 2020 increased %66 compared with 2010 and 2030 increased %64 according to 2020. While number of vehicles increase %116, amount of pollutants is estimated to increase %174 in 2030 compared with 2010.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Vehicle emissions, pollutants, estimation of emissions, estimation of vehicle number

Kaynakça

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