Reducing the Impact of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Disease by Domestic Animals and Tilapia Fish: A System Dynamics Model

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 32 Sayı: 2, 595 - 606, 01.06.2019

Saadettin Erhan Kesen , Seyma Kurt

Öz

The purpose of this paper is to seek ways in
reducing incidence of vector borne disease called leishmaniasis on humans.
Frequently encountered in East Mediterranean and Southeastern Anatolian region
of Turkey due to risk factors including poverty, malnutrition, lack of
sanitation and defrostration, leishmaniasis disease is transmitted by
sandflies’ (vector) bites to humans. In addition to the zooprophylaxis effect
in which domestic animals acting as dead-end hosts are used to alleviate the
incidence on humans, we also incorporate the Tilapia fish population into the
model to observe its effect in terms of relieving the vector bites on humans.
We elaborate dynamic behavior and feedback loop structure of the system under
study with three blood meal hosts: rodents, humans, and domestic animals.
Proposed model is simulated throughout a period of 1000 days. We conduct
sensitivity analysis by changing the rates of vector biting and the number of
larvae eaten by Tilapia fish which influence the transmission of the disease.
Results indicate that basic reproductive number  and its prevalence in humans decreases as the
size of domestic animal and the sandflies larvae eaten by Tilapia fish
increases. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Leishmaniasis, Sandflies, Tilapia, System dynamics, Zooprophylaxis

Kaynakça

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