Ukrayna'da Nükleer Silah Kullanımı Hayaleti: Nükleer Savaş Riskinin Nüansları

Yıl 2024, , 1 - 17, 26.04.2024

Barış Çağlar

https://doi.org/10.17752/guvenlikstrtj.1393162

Öz

Rusya güvenlik politikasının özünü, hem savaşta hem barış zamanlarında, konvansiyonel ve konvansiyonel olmayan tehditlerin ve silah sistemlerinin bir arada kullanılması oluşturmaktadır. Özellikle nükleer savaş tehdidini sıklıkla savurarak, çatışmanın tırmandırılması sürecinde baskın olmaya çalışmaktadır. Barış zamanında bu şekilde elde ettiği stratejik girişim üstünlüğünü, çatışma ve krizlerin tüm aşamalarında korumaya çalışarak, düşmanlarını kendi kontrolü altında hareket etmeye zorlamaktadır. Diğer bir deyişle nükleer savaş korkusunu manipüle ederek, diğer devletlerin savaş alanına doğrudan müdahalesini engellemeye ve askeri yardımın stratejik hale gelmesini sınırlamaya çalışmaktadır. Rus askeri zihniyetinin kilit noktası budur. Etkisi psikolojiktir ve Ukrayna’da bugüne kadar kısmen başarılı olmuştur. Makalenin önemi ve yansımaları, irdelenen husus ve uyarıların sadece Ukrayna’da değil, olası Tayvan’a dair bir krizdeki gibi nükleer güçlerin dahil olacağı ilerideki çatışmalarda da muhtemel olmasında yatmaktadır. Metodolojik olarak, Rusya’nın Ukrayna’daki nükleer stratejisi bir örnek olay/vaka incelemesi olarak ele alınmıştır. Rusya’nın nükleer risk yoluyla gerilimi tırmandırma hakimiyeti kazanma çabası irdelenmiştir. Bu çaba, nükleer caydırıcılığın belirsizliğine dayanmaktadır. Nükleer saldırı riskine yol açan ve sıklıkla görmezden gelinen bu belirsizliğin nüansları açıklanmıştır. Bu belirsizliğin, nükleer savaş riski oluşturması nedeniyle, hem Ukrayna’daki hem de nükleer silahların gölgesinde oluşacak ilerideki çatışma ve krizlerin mutlak zaferle sonuçlanması mümkün değildir. Hiçbir taraf tüm isteklerini elde edemeyecektir. Bu şartlarda tek çözüm müzakerelerle gelecek diplomatik uzlaşıdır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Nükleer Caydırıcılık, Nükleer Silahlar, Tırmandırma Hakimiyeti, Rusya, Ukrayna

The Spectre of Nuclear Weapons Use in Ukraine: The Nuances of Nuclear War Risk

Öz

The essence of Russian security policy is composed of the combined use of conventional and unconventional threats in both war and peacetime. Russia aims to dominate the process of escalation especially by frequently threatening nuclear war in Ukraine. It attempts to maintain the strategic initiative superiority, forcing its enemies to act under its control. Put differently, through the means of manipulating the fear of nuclear war in Ukraine, it tries to avert other states from directly intervening in the battlefield and to prevent military aid delivered to its enemies from becoming strategic. Methodologically, this article examines Russia’s effort to gain dominance in escalating tensions through nuclear risk as a case study. The nuclear risk hinges on the uncertainty of nuclear deterrence. The nuances of this often-ignored uncertainty are explained in this article. Since such a uncertainty poses credible risk of nuclear war, absolute victory is not possible. No party will get everything it wants; therefore, the only solution is diplomatic compromise through negotiation. The importance and implications of this article lie in the fact that the problems and warnings examined here are likely not only in Ukraine but also in a possible future crisis over Taiwan or future conflicts involving nuclear powers.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Nuclear Deterrence, Nuclear Weapons, Escalation Dominance, Russia, Ukraine

Kaynakça

• BETTS Richard K. (1987). Nuclear Blackmail and Nuclear Balance, Brookings Institution Press, Washington, D.C.
• BLANK Stephen (2022). “Nuclear Weapons In Russia’s War Against Ukraine”, Naval War College Review, 75:4, 1-26.
• ARNDT C. and HOROVITZ L. (2022). Nuclear Rhetoric and Escalation Management in Russia’s War Against Ukraine: A Chronology. Working Paper no. 3. German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
• CHARAP Samuel and PRIEBE Miranda (2023). “Avoiding a Long War: U.S. Policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict”, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA.
• ECKSTEIN Harry (2000). “Case Study and Theory in Political Science”, Roger Gomm, Martin Hammersley & Peter Foster (eds.), Case Study Method: Key Issues, Key Texts, [1975], Sage Publication, London, 119-164.
• FREDERICK Bryan and MARK COZAD Alexandra (2023). “Stark Escalation in the War in Ukraine Lessons Learned and Risks for the Future”, Rand Research Report-National Security Division Print.
• GEORGE Alexander L. and SIMONS William E. (eds.) (1994). The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy, 2nd ed., Westview Press Boulder, Colo.
• HOFFMANN Stanley (1985). “Raymond Aron and the Theory of International Relations” International Studies Quarterly 29:1, 13-27.
• LIJPHART Arend (1971). “Comparative Politics and the Comparative Method”, The American Political Science Review, 65:3, 682-693.
• LUPOVICI Amir (2023). “Deterrence by Delivery of Arms: NATO and the War in Ukraine”, Contemporary Security Policy, 44:4, 624-641.
• MALIS Christian (2018). “Raymond Aron, War and Nuclear Weapons”, Oliver Schmidt (ed.), Raymond Aron and International Relations, Routledge, New York.
• MORGAN Forrest E. et al. (2008). “The Nature of Escalation”, Dangerous Thresholds: Managing Escalation in the 21st Century, 1st ed., RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA, 7-46.
• MORGAN Patrick M. (2003). Deterrence Now, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
• POWELL Robert (2015). “Nuclear Brinkmanship, Limited War, and Military Power”, International Organization, 69:3, 589-626.
• REACH Clint et al. (2021). Competing with Russia Militarily: Implications of Conventional and Nuclear Conflicts, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA.
• “As Kim meets Putin, Ukraine strikes a Russian military shipyard and Moscow once again attacks Odesa”, CBS, September 13, 2023, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-kim-jong-un-putin-missile-strike-shipyard-sevastopol-odesa/?intcid=CNI-00-10aaa3a, accessed 14.11.2023.
• “Exclusive: NATO chief calls Putin's nuclear threat a 'dangerous' escalation”, Reuters, September 21, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-nato-chief-says-putins-ukraine-escalation-dangerous-reckless-2022-09-21/, accessed 24.11.2023.
• “Putin Praises Russia’s New Armaments Program”, Russian News Agency TASS, https://tass.com/defense/976533, accessed 9.12.2023.
• “Putin Says Russian Economy will Grow in 2023 Despite Sanctions”, Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-russian-economy-will-grow-2023-despite-sanctions-2023-02-09/, accessed 04.03.2023.
• “Putin Warns that the West shouldn’t ‘Push’ Russia out of the Global Economy” PBS News Hour February 24, 2022, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/putin-warns-that-the-west-shouldnt-push-russia-out-of-the-global-economy, accessed 12.11.2023.
• “Russia’s Use of Nuclear Threats During the Ukraine Conflict”, UK Parliament House of Commons Library- Published Wednesday, 28 June 2023, https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9825/, accessed 17.12.2023.
• “Russia Passes Law Pulling Ratification of Nuclear Test Ban Treaty”, Reuters, October 26 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-upper-house-approves-de-ratification-nuclear-test-ban-treaty-2023-10-25/, accessed 20.12.2023.
• ABRAHMS Max. “You're Not Supporting Ukraine Enough Until the Nuclear Blast Hits Your Face-Opinion”, Newsweek, Sep 14, 2023, https://www.newsweek.com/you-are-not-supporting-ukraine-enough-until-nuclear-blast-hits-your-face-opinion-1827128, accessed 11.09.2023.
• ASH Timothy et al. “How to end Russia’s war on Ukraine Safeguarding Europe’s future, and the dangers of a false peace”, Chatham House-Russia and Eurasia Programme Report, https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/06/how-end-russias-war-ukraine, accessed 13.11.2023.
• BIDEN Joe. Remarks of President Joe Biden – State of the Union Address, March 1, 2022. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/03/01/remarks-of-president-joe-biden-state-of-the-union-address-as-delivered/, accessed 10.02.2023.
• BLINKEN Antony J. Secretary Antony J. Blinken and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba at a Joint Press Availability, Kyiv, Ukraine, September 6, 2023, https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-and-ukrainian-foreign-minister-dmytro-kuleba-at-a-joint-press-availability-4/ accessed 12.11.2023.
• CLARK Brian. “If America Pushes for A ‘Total’ Ukraine Victory It Could Mean Nuclear War”, 19FortyFive, December 9, 2022, https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/12/if-america-pushes-for-a-total-ukraine-victory-it-could-mean-nuclear-war/, accessed 03.02.2023.
• COHEN Raphael S. and GENTILE Gian. “The Case for Cautious Optimism in Ukraine,” Foreign Policy, August 9, 2022, https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2022/08/the-case-for-cautious-optimism-in-ukraine.html, accessed 10.11.2023.
• COOPER Helene, et al. “Biden Administration Shrugs Off Ukraine’s Attacks in Russia”, The New York Times, June 5, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/05/us/politics/ukraine-attacks-inside-russia.html, accessed 18.10.2023.
• COOPER Helene BARNES Julian E. and Eric SCHMITT. “Russian Military Leaders Discussed Use of Nuclear Weapons, U.S. Officials Say”, New York Times, November 2, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/02/us/politics/russia-ukraine-nuclear-weapons.html#:~:text=WASHINGTON%20%E2%80%94%20Senior%20Russian%20military%20leaders,to%20multiple%20senior%20American%20officials, accessed 11.12/.2023.
• DIESEN Glenn. “NATO Escalates: The War enters a new phase - Colonel Douglas Macgregor and Glenn Diesen”, Sep 15, 2023, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KIqR3ORYLE, accessed 10.10.2023.
• EPISKOPOS Mark. “US closer to crossing another red line for Ukraine: ATACM missiles”, Responsible Statecraft, September 10, 2023, https://responsiblestatecraft.org/atacms-ukraine-russia/, accessed 19.11.2023.
• GILES Keir. “Russian Nuclear Intimidation How Russia Uses Nuclear Threats To Shape Western Responses To Aggression”, Chatham House-Research Paper Russia and Eurasia Programme, March 2023, https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/03/russian-nuclear-intimidation, accessed 14.08.2023.
• HERNANDEZ Michael. “Biden Says World at Risk of Nuclear ‘Armageddon’”, October 10, 2022, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/biden-says-world-at-risk-of-nuclear-armageddon-/2704945, Anadolu Agency, accessed 20.09.2023.
• International Monetary Fund. “IMF Survey: Cheaper Oil and Sanctions Weigh on Russia’s Growth Outlook,” August 13, 2015, https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/socar080315b, accessed 10.09.2023.
• KOFMAN Michael and LOUKIANOVA FINK Anya. “Escalation Management and Nuclear Employment in Russian Military Strategy”, War on the Rocks, June 23, 2020, https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/escalation-management-and-nuclear-employment-in-russian-military-strategy/, accessed 26.09.2023.
• KAPTANOGLU Alan and PRAGER Stewart. “US defense to its workforce: Nuclear war can be won”, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, February 2, 2022, https://thebulletin.org/2022/02/us-defense-to-its-workforce-nuclear-war-can-be-won/#post-heading, accessed 01.03.2023.
• KHOLODILIN Konstantin A. and NETŠUNAJEV Aleksei. “Crimea and Punishment: The Impact of Sanctions on Russian and European Economies,” 2016, German Institute for Economic Research, DIW Discussion Papers, No. 1569, https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/diwdiwwpp/dp1569.htm, accessed 19.10.2023.
• LEBEDEV Filipp and TREVELYAN Mark “Russia Passes Law Pulling Ratification of Nuclear Test Ban Treaty”, Reuters, October 26, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-upper-house-approves-de-ratification-nuclear-test-ban-treaty-2023-10-25/, accessed 20.12.2023.
• Military-Encyclopaedic Dictionary of the Russian Ministry of Defense, available at encyclopedia.mil.ru/ Research Briefing, 28 June 2023, https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9825/, accessed 12.10.2023.
• PUTIN Vladimir. “Attempts to interfere in situation in Ukraine to be met with instant response”, TASS, April 27, 2022, https://tass.com/politics/1444327, accessed 02.04.2023.