FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TURKEY: A REEXAMINATION

Yıl 2015, Cilt: 33 Sayı: 1, 19 - 43, 31.03.2015

Gülenay Dinar Başak Dalgıç , Pelin İyidoğan

https://doi.org/10.17065/huiibf.75983

Öz

There is a
wide empirical and theoretical literature on the causal relationship between
financial liberalization and economic growth. The background of the issue is
based on the McKinnon and Shaw hypothesis which emphasize that financial
liberalization leads to economic growth via high saving and investment rates
together with the technological improvements. While some empirical studies
support McKinnon and Shaw hypothesis some others find contradictory evidence.
In this context, utilizing recent data we investigate the relationship between
financial liberalization and economic growth for Turkey over the period 1998-2012.
Considering the structural breaks in the analysis period we first employ
Zivot-Andrews unit root test and Gregory-Hansen cointegration analysis. Next we
examine the causality relationship by means of Toda-Yamamoto methodology. Our
main findings are; (i) there is a long run interaction between financial liberalization
and economic growth, (ii) there is evidence of the causality running from
economic growth to financial liberalization.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Financial liberalization, growth, structural break, cointegration, causality

TÜRKİYE’DE FİNANSAL LİBERALİZASYON VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME: YENİ BİR DEĞERLENDİRME

Öz

Finansal
liberalizasyon ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensel ilişkiyi teorik ve
ampirik olarak inceleyen geniş bir yazın bulunmaktadır. Konunun temelleri,
finansal liberalizasyonun yüksek tasarruf ve yatırım oranlarının yanısıra
teknolojik gelişmeler aracılığıyla ekonomik büyümeye yol açtığını vurgulayan McKinnon
Shaw hipotezine dayanmaktadır. Ampirik çalışmaların bir kısmı McKinnon Shaw
hipotezini desteklerken bazıları ise karşıt yönde sonuçlara ulaşmışlardır. Bu
çerçevede, çalışmada Türkiye için 1998-2012 dönemine ait güncel verilerle
finansal liberalizasyon ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki incelenmektedir.
Analiz dönemi içerisindeki olası yapısal kırılmalar dikkate alınarak öncelikle
Zivot-Andrews birim kök testi ve Gregory-Hansen eşbütünleşme analizi
uygulanmaktadır. Daha sonra ilgili değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi
Toda-Yamamoto yöntemiyle incelenmektedir. Çalışmanın temel bulguları (i)
Türkiye ekonomisinde finansal liberalizasyon ve ekonomik büyüme arasında uzun
dönemli bir ilişkinin bulunduğu (ii) Nedensellik ilişkisinin ekonomik büyümeden
finansal liberalizasyona doğru gerçekleştiği şeklindedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Finansal liberalizasyon, büyüme, yapısal kırılma, eşbütünleşme, nedensellik

Kaynakça

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• First difference Variables Model A Model C Model A Model C Credit -1.7493 (2003Q3-2005Q2) (2003Q2-2008Q3)
• (2002Q1-2009Q2 BIST -2.1601 (2001Q1-2009Q2) (2000Q2-2001Q1)
• (2000Q4-2002Q3) M3 -3.0199 (2001Q1-2006Q3) (2001Q4-2007Q4)
• (2002Q4-2007Q1) GDP -3.0917 (2007Q1-2009Q3) (2001Q1-2006Q3) (2002Q4-2007Q1)
• Notes: ***,** and* denote significance at 1%, 5% and 10% level respectively using the critical values from
• Lee and Strazicich (2003). The parantheses below the test statistics show the break points for the series.
• Table Hatemi-J (2008) Cointegration Test Modified ADF
• Modified Philips Credit-GDP -5.772*
• (2001Q1-2001Q2) -7.122***
• (2000Q1-2000Q3) BIST-GDP -4.109
• (2002Q2-2005Q2) -5.932*
• (2001Q3-2004Q1) M3-GDP -5.996*
• (2002Q2-2006Q3) -6.597** (2000Q2-2000Q3)
• Notes: ***,** and* denote significance at 1%, 5% and 10% level respectively using the critical values from
• Hatemi –J (2008). The parantheses below the test statistics show the break points for the series.
• Table Granger Causality Test Results Error correction term (p-value) (p-value)
• Financial liberalization Economic growth Credit  GDP -0.01279 (0.9256)
• 0.07822 (0.9715) BISTGDP -0.00192 (0.7676)
• 0.30820 (0.8193) M3GDP --0.00866 (0.5681) 0.78871 (0.6041)
• Economic growth Financial liberalization GDP Credit -0.03368 (0.0912)
• 37185 (0.0849) GDPBIST -0.43101(0.0012)
• 70429 (0.0057) GDP M3 -0.05949 (0.1058) 1.8823 (0.1849)