20th Anniversary of the Private Pension in Turkey: A Comparative Analysis with OECD Countries

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 42 Sayı: 3, 471 - 489, 24.09.2024

Hasan Meral

https://doi.org/10.17065/huniibf.1403756

Öz

Turkey’s private pension system (BES) has achieved remarkable progress, with 14.5 million participants and a fund size of 1 trillion TL in its 20th year of establishment. However, compared to similar countries, there is room for improvement in various indicators, such as the asset size to GDP ratio, financial returns, and savings levels. An international comparative analysis is required to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the BES. This study aims to analyze the performance of the BES in the past and highlight its global position in its 20th year. In this study, key performance indicators of BES are examined through trend analysis and clustering methods are used to evaluate the system’s position among OECD countries in economic, financial, and social dimensions. Trend analysis highlights the significant growth in the BES fund size in recent years, but the growth rate follows a complex trajectory. The system becomes more inclusive by introducing state contributions, automatic enrollment, and under-18-years-old BES. However, Turkey’s ranking in categories such as fund size, contribution rate, and financial returns emerges as a significant challenge in the clustering analysis. By positioning BES as a complement to the public pension system, Turkey has the potential to address future social security issues and reduce the financial burden on the public.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Private Pension, 20th Anniversary of PPS, Trend Analysis, Clustering Analysis

Türkiye’de Bireysel Emeklilik Sisteminin 20. Yılı: OECD Ülkeleriyle Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analiz

Öz

Türkiye’de Bireysel Emeklilik Sistemi, kuruluşunun 20. yılında 14,5 milyon katılımcıya ve 1 trilyon TL’lik fon büyüklüğüne ulaşarak önemli bir gelişme kaydetmiştir. Bununla birlikte, benzer ülkelerle karşılaştırıldığında; varlık büyüklüğünün milli gelire oranı, finansal getiri, tasarruf düzeyi gibi çeşitli göstergelerde iyileşmeye açık alanları bulunmaktadır. Bu noktada, BES’in gelişimini ve mevcut konumunu daha doğru bir şekilde değerlendirebilmek adına uluslararası karşılaştırmalı bir analize ihtiyaç vardır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, BES’in geçmiş dönemdeki performansını analiz etmek ve 20. yılındaki küresel konumunu ortaya koymaktır. Araştırmada, BES’in temel performans göstergeleri trend analizi ile incelenmiş, sistemin OECD ülkeleri arasında ekonomik, finansal ve sosyal boyutlardaki konumunu anlamak içinse kümeleme analizi kullanılmıştır. Trend analizi, BES fon büyüklüğünün son dönemde önemli bir büyüme kaydettiğini, ancak büyüme hızının karmaşık bir trend izlediğini göstermektedir. Sistemin kapsayıcılığını artırmada devlet katkısı, otomatik katılım ve 18 yaş altı BES uygulamalarının etkili olduğu görülmüştür. Kümeleme analizinde ise Türkiye’nin fon büyüklüğü, katkı payı, finansal getiri gibi başlıklarda alt sıralarda yer alması önemli bir zorluk olarak öne çıkmıştır. Türkiye, BES’i kamu emeklilik sistemini tamamlayıcısı olarak konumlandırabilirse, gelecekteki potansiyel sosyal güvenlik sorunlarını hafifletebilir ve kamunun mali yükünü azaltabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Bireysel Emeklilik Sistemi, BES’in 20. Yılı, Trend Analizi, Kümeleme Analizi

Kaynakça

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