Vergi Yükünün Belirleyicileri: Türkiye Üzerine Bir İnceleme

Yıl 2024, Sayı: 37, 125 - 142, 15.10.2024

Ahmet Köstekçi

https://doi.org/10.54600/igdirsosbilder.1495426

Öz

Vergi yükünün dinamiklerini anlamak, bir ülkenin mali, ekonomik ve sosyal yapısını karakterize eden faktörlerin belirlenmesi noktasında yol gösterici olabilir. Çünkü vergi yükü, mali, ekonomik ve sosyal yapı üzerinde etkili olmakla birlikte mali, ekonomik ve sosyal gelişmelerden de önemli ölçüde etkilenmektedir. Buradan hareketle yapılan bu çalışma, Türkiye’de ekonomik ve mali göstergelerin vergi yükü üzerindeki etkilerini tespit etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. 1980-2022 dönemi temel alınarak yapılan ARDL sınır testi sonuçları, vergi yükü ile diğer değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin olduğunu göstermektedir. ARDL modeli uzun dönem katsayı tahmin sonuçlarına göre, dış ticaret ve faiz ödemeleri vergi yükü üzerinde negatif yönlü etkiler yaratırken doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, ekonomik büyüme, işsizlik ve kamu harcamaları değişkenleri ise vergi yükü üzerinde pozitif yönlü etkilere sahiptir. İşsizliğin vergi yükü üzerindeki zayıf etkisine karşın, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, kamu harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme vergi yükü üzerinde güçlü etkilere sahiptir. Araştırma bulguları genel olarak değerlendirildiğinde, ekonomik ve mali gelişmelerin vergi yükünü etkilediği ve Türkiye’de sosyoekonomik alanların dinamiklerini şekillendirmede devletin önemli bir rol oynadığı görülmektedir. Bu yönüyle çalışmamız, vergi yükünün ekonomik ve mali gelişmelerin bir sonucu olabildiğini de göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Vergi Yükü, Vergi Yükünün Belirleyicileri, Türkiye, ARDL Modeli

Destekleyen Kurum

Yok

Proje Numarası

Yok

Determinants of the Tax Burden: A Study on Türkiye

Öz

Understanding the dynamics of the tax burden can be instructive in identifying the factors that characterize the fiscal, economic, and social structure of a country. This is because the tax burden not only has an impact on the fiscal, economic, and social structure but is also affected by fiscal, economic, and social developments. From this point of view, this study aims to determine the effects of economic and fiscal indicators on the tax burden in Türkiye. The ARDL bounds test results based on the 1980-2022 period show that there is a cointegration relationship between tax burden and other variables. According to the ARDL model long-run coefficient estimation results, foreign trade and interest payments have negative effects on the tax burden, while foreign direct investments, economic growth, unemployment, and public expenditures have positive effects on the tax burden. Despite the weak effect of unemployment on the tax burden, foreign direct investments, public expenditures, and economic growth have strong effects on the tax burden.. When the research findings are evaluated in general, it is seen that economic and fiscal developments affect the tax burden and the state plays an important role in shaping the dynamics of socioeconomic areas in Türkiye. In this respect, our study also shows that tax burden can be a result of economic and fiscal developments.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tax Burden, Determinants of Tax Burden, Türkiye, ARDL Model

Proje Numarası

Yok

Kaynakça

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