Araştırma Makalesi
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Examining the Status Quo Bias for the Recent Global Economic Crisis: The Case of Türkiye

Yıl 2024, Sayı: 37, 431 - 444, 15.10.2024
https://doi.org/10.54600/igdirsosbilder.1498098

Öz

The objective of this paper is to investigate the "status quo bias,” which is a key concept in behavioral economics, using macroeconomic data from the recent economic crisis in Türkiye. The current global economic situation provides a favorable opportunity to analyze this idea, as there are abundant and relevant inputs for this type of study. Specifically, this paper analyzes the nexus between consumption and income before and after the economic crisis that triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic in Türkiye, with the aim of examining the "status quo bias” by employing ARDL Bounds Test. The analysis findings support that Türkiye has exhibited status quo bias for the period from 2013 to 2022. This research fills a gap in the literature by presenting evidence that Türkiye, a country that has been overlooked in the field of behavioral economics, exhibits the status quo bias in the context of recent economic crisis triggered by the Covid-19 outbreak.

Kaynakça

  • Baker, S. R., Farrokhnia, R. A., Michaela Pagel, M., and Yannelis, C. (2020). How does household spending respond to an epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic, The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 10(4), 834–862. https://doi.org/10.1093/rapstu/raaa009.
  • Brenner, M., and Galai, D. (1989). New financial ınstruments for hedging changes in volatility. Financial Analysts Journal. 45 (4), 61-65. doi:10.2469/faj.v45.n4.61.
  • Central Bank of Republic of Türkiye (2023). Exchange Rates, Inflation Rate (CPI), Interest Rate on Personal Loans, January. Access adress: www.cbrt.gov.tr/en.
  • Dean, M., Kıbrıs, Ö., and Masatlioglu, Y. (2017). Limited attention and status quo bias, Journal of Economic Theory, 169(C), 93-127.
  • Guo, K., and Papa, N. (2010). Determinants of China's Private Consumption: An International Perspective. IMF Working Paper. 10/93.
  • Investing.com. (2023, June). Volatility S&P Historical Data. https://www.investing.com/
  • Johnson, E.J., and Goldstein, D.G. (2004). Defaults and donation decisions. Transplantation, 78 (12), 1713-1716.
  • Kandil, M., Berument, H., and Dincer, N.N. (2007). The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on economic activity in Türkiye, Journal of Asian Economics, 18 (3), 466-489. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2006.12.015.
  • Kang, W, C., Park, W, H., and Song, B, K. (2018). The effect of incumbency in national and local elections: Evidence from South Korea. Electoral Studies, 56, 47-60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2018.09.005.
  • Krugman, P., and Taylor, L. (1976). Contractionary Effect of Devaluation. Journal of International Economics, 8.
  • Loser, C.M. (2004). External Debt Sustainability: Guidelines for Low- and Middle-income Countries, G-24 Discussion Paper Series 26, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  • Orhangazi, Ö., and Yeldan, A.E. (2021). Re-Making of the Turkish economic crisis. Development and Change 0(0): 1–44. doi:10.1111/dech.12644.
  • Ortoleva, P. (2010). Status quo bias, multiple priors and uncertainty aversion. Games and Economic Behavior, 69(2), 411-424. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2009.11.007.
  • Pattillo, C., Poirson, H., and Ricci, L. (2002). External debt and growth. Review of Economics and Institutions, 2. doi:10.5202/rei.v2i3.45.
  • Phillips, P. C. B., and Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75, 335-346.
  • Republic of Turkiye Ministry of Treasury and Finance (2023). https://en.hmb.gov.tr. (Accessed on 11.02.2023).
  • Ribeiro, A.P., Harmsen, R.O., Carreón, J.R., and Worrell, E. (2019). What influences consumption? Consumers and beyond: Purposes, contexts, agents and history. Journal of Cleaner Production, 209, 200-215.
  • Samuelson, W., and Zeckhauser, R. J. (1988). Status quo bias in decision making. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1, 7-59.
  • Singh, S. (2009). Depreciation of the Indian currency: Implications for the Indian economy. World Affairs: The Journal of International Issues, 13(2), 148–165. https://www.jstor.org/stable/48505193.
  • Sun, W., and Kim, G. (2018). Assessing the effects of exchange rate depreciation on the US economy: Evidence from a factor-augmented VAR model, Journal of Economic Studies, 45 (6), 1242-1271. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-04-2017-0081.
  • The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2022). Inflation (CPI) (indicator), December. doi: 10.1787/eee82e6e-en.
  • Thaler, R. H., and Sunstein, C. R. (2008). Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, And Happiness. Penguin Books.
  • Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) (2023). February. https://www.tuik.gov.tr.
  • Vaskovskyi, A. (2020). Analysis of the Status Quo Behavioral Concept During the Global Economic Crisis, Prague Economic Papers 30(2), 133-155. doi: 10.18267/j.pep.75.
  • Xiong, Y. (2022). Status quo bias in behavioral economics and its applications. BCP Business & Management, 25, 352–356. https://doi.org/10.54691/bcpbm.v25i.1842.

Son Küresel Ekonomik Kriz Süreci İçin Statüko Yanlılığı Analizi: Türkiye Örneği

Yıl 2024, Sayı: 37, 431 - 444, 15.10.2024
https://doi.org/10.54600/igdirsosbilder.1498098

Öz

Bu makalenin amacı, davranışsal ekonominin temel kavramlarından biri olan “statüko yanlılığı”nı, Türkiye'de son dönemde yaşanan ekonomik krize ilişkin mevcut makroekonomik verilerle incelemektir. Dünya ekonomisinin mevcut durumu bu fikrin analiz edilmesi ve çalışılması için yeterli ve ilgili girdilerin bulunması için mükemmel bir fırsat yaratmıştır. Bu makale, Türkiye'de Covid-19 salgını sonrası ortaya çıkan ekonomik kriz öncesi ve sonrası tüketim ve gelir arasındaki ilişkiyi ARDL Sınır Testi kullanarak "statüko yanlılığı" özelinde incelemektedir. Analiz sonuçları, 2013-2022 dönemi için Türkiye'de statüko yanlılığının geçerli olduğunu desteklemektedir. Türkiye’nin davranışsal ekonomi alanında fazla ilgi görmediği göz önüne alındığında, bu makale, Türkiye'nin, son dönemde Covid-19 salgınının getirdiği ekonomik krize Statüko Önyargısı’nın geçerli olduğu bir ülke oluşuna dair destekleyici kanıtlar sunarak literatüre katkıda bulunmaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Baker, S. R., Farrokhnia, R. A., Michaela Pagel, M., and Yannelis, C. (2020). How does household spending respond to an epidemic? Consumption during the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic, The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, 10(4), 834–862. https://doi.org/10.1093/rapstu/raaa009.
  • Brenner, M., and Galai, D. (1989). New financial ınstruments for hedging changes in volatility. Financial Analysts Journal. 45 (4), 61-65. doi:10.2469/faj.v45.n4.61.
  • Central Bank of Republic of Türkiye (2023). Exchange Rates, Inflation Rate (CPI), Interest Rate on Personal Loans, January. Access adress: www.cbrt.gov.tr/en.
  • Dean, M., Kıbrıs, Ö., and Masatlioglu, Y. (2017). Limited attention and status quo bias, Journal of Economic Theory, 169(C), 93-127.
  • Guo, K., and Papa, N. (2010). Determinants of China's Private Consumption: An International Perspective. IMF Working Paper. 10/93.
  • Investing.com. (2023, June). Volatility S&P Historical Data. https://www.investing.com/
  • Johnson, E.J., and Goldstein, D.G. (2004). Defaults and donation decisions. Transplantation, 78 (12), 1713-1716.
  • Kandil, M., Berument, H., and Dincer, N.N. (2007). The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on economic activity in Türkiye, Journal of Asian Economics, 18 (3), 466-489. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2006.12.015.
  • Kang, W, C., Park, W, H., and Song, B, K. (2018). The effect of incumbency in national and local elections: Evidence from South Korea. Electoral Studies, 56, 47-60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2018.09.005.
  • Krugman, P., and Taylor, L. (1976). Contractionary Effect of Devaluation. Journal of International Economics, 8.
  • Loser, C.M. (2004). External Debt Sustainability: Guidelines for Low- and Middle-income Countries, G-24 Discussion Paper Series 26, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  • Orhangazi, Ö., and Yeldan, A.E. (2021). Re-Making of the Turkish economic crisis. Development and Change 0(0): 1–44. doi:10.1111/dech.12644.
  • Ortoleva, P. (2010). Status quo bias, multiple priors and uncertainty aversion. Games and Economic Behavior, 69(2), 411-424. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geb.2009.11.007.
  • Pattillo, C., Poirson, H., and Ricci, L. (2002). External debt and growth. Review of Economics and Institutions, 2. doi:10.5202/rei.v2i3.45.
  • Phillips, P. C. B., and Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75, 335-346.
  • Republic of Turkiye Ministry of Treasury and Finance (2023). https://en.hmb.gov.tr. (Accessed on 11.02.2023).
  • Ribeiro, A.P., Harmsen, R.O., Carreón, J.R., and Worrell, E. (2019). What influences consumption? Consumers and beyond: Purposes, contexts, agents and history. Journal of Cleaner Production, 209, 200-215.
  • Samuelson, W., and Zeckhauser, R. J. (1988). Status quo bias in decision making. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1, 7-59.
  • Singh, S. (2009). Depreciation of the Indian currency: Implications for the Indian economy. World Affairs: The Journal of International Issues, 13(2), 148–165. https://www.jstor.org/stable/48505193.
  • Sun, W., and Kim, G. (2018). Assessing the effects of exchange rate depreciation on the US economy: Evidence from a factor-augmented VAR model, Journal of Economic Studies, 45 (6), 1242-1271. https://doi.org/10.1108/JES-04-2017-0081.
  • The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2022). Inflation (CPI) (indicator), December. doi: 10.1787/eee82e6e-en.
  • Thaler, R. H., and Sunstein, C. R. (2008). Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, And Happiness. Penguin Books.
  • Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) (2023). February. https://www.tuik.gov.tr.
  • Vaskovskyi, A. (2020). Analysis of the Status Quo Behavioral Concept During the Global Economic Crisis, Prague Economic Papers 30(2), 133-155. doi: 10.18267/j.pep.75.
  • Xiong, Y. (2022). Status quo bias in behavioral economics and its applications. BCP Business & Management, 25, 352–356. https://doi.org/10.54691/bcpbm.v25i.1842.
Toplam 25 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Uygulamalı Ekonomi (Diğer)
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Feyza Ozdinc 0000-0002-0414-0575

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 12 Ekim 2024
Yayımlanma Tarihi 15 Ekim 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi 8 Haziran 2024
Kabul Tarihi 12 Eylül 2024
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024 Sayı: 37

Kaynak Göster

APA Ozdinc, F. (2024). Examining the Status Quo Bias for the Recent Global Economic Crisis: The Case of Türkiye. Iğdır Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi(37), 431-444. https://doi.org/10.54600/igdirsosbilder.1498098