Güneydoğu Asya’da Bölgesel Siyasetin Temel Dinamikleri Kapsamında Myanmar Dış Politikasının Analizi

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 24 Sayı: 2, 260 - 279, 30.12.2022

Müge Yüce

Öz

Asya-Pasifik Bölgesi’nde güncel siyasi dinamikler, büyük güç politikaları kapsamında yeniden şekillenmektedir. Çin ve Amerika Birleşik Devletleri (ABD)’nin bölgedeki nüfuz alanlarını kuvvetlendirmeye yönelik stratejileri, Güneydoğu Asya’nın küçük ve orta büyüklükteki devletleri için eş zamanlı fırsat ve riskleri beraberinde getirmektedir. Hint Okyanusu’na açılan stratejik konumu sebebiyle Myanmar, büyük güçler arasındaki rekabetin yarattığı fırsat ve risklerden doğrudan etkilenmekte, bu doğrultuda dış politikasını yeniden şekillendirmektedir. Bu çalışma, bölgede artan güç rekabetinin yarattığı temel dinamikler kapsamında Myanmar’ın dış politika tercihlerine odaklanmaktadır. Ulaşılmak istenen temel amaç, bölgedeki güç rekabetinin Myanmar’ın dış politikasına ve özellikle Çin ile ilişkilerine etkisini ortaya çıkarmaktır. Bu kapsamda çalışmada öncelikle büyük güçler arasındaki rekabetin Myanmar dış politikasına etkisi, Uluslararası İlişkiler literatüründeki dengeleme (balancing), peşine takılma (bandwagoning) ve korunma (hedging) stratejileri temelinde incelenmiştir. Daha sonra bölgedeki rekabetin Myanmar’ın Çin’e yönelik dış politikası üzerine etkileri tarihsel süreç içerisinde ve ilk kısımda ele alınan stratejiler kapsamında açıklanmaya çalışılmıştır. Çalışmada belirlenen amaca ulaşmak için Myanmar ve Çin’in resmî dış politika belgeleri ile uluslararası literatürde daha önce ortaya konmuş kaynaklar incelenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre Myanmar, bölgedeki güç rekabetinden faydalanarak Çin ve ABD karşısında korunma ve dengeleme politikaları izlemekte ve bağımsızlığını korumaya çalışmaktadır. Ancak ABD öncülüğünde yaptırımlara maruz kalması, Myanmar’ın Çin’in peşine takılma stratejisi izlemesine yol açmaktadır. Bu strateji Myanmar’ın kuruluş felsefesinde yer alan bağımsız ve bağlantısız politikadan uzaklaşılmasına ve ülke içindeki siyasi kırılganlığın pekişmesine sebep olmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Güneydoğu Asya, Myanmar Dış Politikası, Çin, Southeast Asia, Myanmar, China, Balancing, Bandwagoning

Myanmar's Foreign Policy Analysis in the Context of the Basic Dynamics of Regional Politics in Southeast Asia

Öz

Current political dynamics in the Asia-Pacific Region are being reshaped within the scope of great power politics. Foreign policies of China and the United States of America (USA) to expand their spheres of influence in the region bring along simultaneous opportunities and risks for the small and medium-sized states of Southeast Asia. Due to its strategic location, a gateway to the Indian Ocean, Myanmar is directly affected by power competition between the great powers and reshapes its foreign policy accordingly. This study focuses on Myanmar’s foreign policy in the context of the basic dynamics created by increasing power competition. The main aim is to reveal the effect of power competition in the region on Myanmar's foreign policy and especially on its relations with China. In this context firstly, the effect of the competition between the great powers on Myanmar's foreign policy was examined on the basis of balancing, bandwagoning and hedging strategies in the International Relations (IR) literature. Then, the effects of power competition on Myanmar's foreign policy towards China were tried to be explained in the historical process and within the scope of the aforementioned strategies. To achieve the main aim of the study, the official foreign policy documents of Myanmar and China and articles previously revealed in the IR literature were examined. According to the findings, Myanmar is trying to maintain its independence by taking advantage of power competition in the region by following balancing and hedging strategies against China and the USA. However, US-led sanctions on Myanmar cause the country turn to China and follow a bandwagoning strategy. This strategy causes Myanmar to move away from the independent and non-aligned policy in its founding philosophy and to reinforce the political fragility within the country.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Southeast Asia, Myanmar, China, Balancing, Bandwagoning

Kaynakça

• Ateş, A. (2017). Burma’dan Myanmar’a Arakan’da Rohingya Müslümanları. İstem, 15(29), 173-216.
• Bünte, M. & Jörn, D. (2015). Myanmar: Political Reforms and the Recalibration of External Relations. Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 34(2), 3–19.
• Clapp, P. (2014). The Influence of Domestic Issues on Myanmar’s Foreign Policy: A Historical Perspective. İçinde Myanmar’s Growing Regional Role. The National Bureau of Asian Research, Special Report No. 45. 5-22. https://www.nbr.org/wp-content/uploads/pdfs/publications/special_report_45_myanmar_march2014.pdf, Erişim tarihi: 8 Eylül 2021
• Çınar, Y. (2013). Çin’in Güney Doğu Asya’da Bölgesel İşbirliğine Açık Hegemonya Girişiminin Temelleri. Uluslararası Hukuk ve Politika, 9(34), 1-26.
• Dossi, S. (2015). Regime Change and Foreign Policy: Explaining the Fluctuations in Myanmar’s Economic Cooperation with China. European Journal of East Asian Studies, 14, 98-123.
• Emmers, R. & Teo, S. (2015). Regional security strategies of middle powers in the Asia-Pacific. International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, 15, 185–216. https://doi.org/10.1093/irap/lcu020
• Fiori, A. & Passeri, A. (2015). Hedging in search of a new age of non-alignment: Myanmar between China and the USA. The Pacific Review, 28(5), 679-702.
• Garlick, J. (2018). Deconstructing the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor: Pipe Dreams Versus Geopolitical Realities. Journal of Contemporary China, 27(112), 519-533.
• Haacke, J. (2011). The Nature and Management of Myanmar's Alignment with China: The SLORC/SPDC Years. Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 30(2), 105-140. https://doi.org/10.1177/186810341103000206
• Han, E. (2017). Geopolitics, Ethnic Conflicts along the Border, and Chinese Foreign Policy Changes toward Myanmar. Asian Security, 13(1), 59-73.
• Hein, P. (2020). The patterns of Chinese authoritarian patronage and implications for foreign policy: Lessons from Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Cambodia. Asian Journal of Comparative Politics, 5(4), 1–15.
• Huang, C. (2015). Balance of relationship: the essence of Myanmar's China policy. The Pacific Review, 28(2), 189-210.
• Ikenberry, G. J. (2015). Between the Eagle and the Dragon: America, China, and Middle State Strategies in East Asia. Political Science Quarterly, 20(20), 9-43. https://doi.org/10.1002/polq.12430
• Jung, S. C. & Lee, J. & Lee, J. Y. (2021). The Indo-Pacific Strategy and US Alliance Network Expandability: Asian Middle Powers’ Positions on Sino-US Geostrategic Competition in Indo-Pacific Region. Journal of Contemporary China, 30(127), 53-68. https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2020.1766909
• Karaca, R. K. (2012). Çin’in Değişen Enerji Stratejisinin Dış Politikasına Etkileri (1990-2010). Uluslararası İlişkiler, 9(33), 93-118.
• Kobayashi, Y. & King, J. (2022). Myanmar's Strategy in the China–Myanmar Economic Corridor: A Failure in Hedging?. International Affairs, 98(3), 1013–1032. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiac049
• Lim, D. J. & Cooper, Z. (2015). Reassessing Hedging: The Logic of Alignment in East Asia. Security Studies, 24(4), 696-727.
• Liu, D.; Yamaguchi, K.; Yoshikawa, H. (2017). Understanding the motivations behind the Myanmar-China energy pipeline: Multiple streams and energy politics in China. Energy Policy, 107, 403-412.
• Malik, J. M. (2018). Myanmar’s Role in China’s Maritime Silk Road Initiative. Journal of Contemporary China, 27(111), 362-378.
• Mark, S. & Overland, I. & Vakulchuk, R. (2020). Sharing the Spoils: Winners and Losers in the Belt and Road Initiative in Myanmar. Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 39(3), 381–404. https://doi.org/10.1177/1868103420962116
• Mof PRC (2022, 01 Nisan). Wang Yi Holds Talks with Myanmar's Foreign Minister U Wunna Maung Lwin. https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/zxxx_662805/202204/t20220402_10663718.html, Erişim tarihi: 06 Mayıs 2022.
• Peng, N. (2021). Hedging against the Dragon: Myanmar's Tangled Relationship with China since 1988. Pacific Focus, 36(2), 179-201. https://doi.org/10.1111/pafo.12191
• Reilly, J. (2013). China and Japan in Myanmar: Aid, Natural Resources and Influence. Asian Studies Review, 37(2), 141-157.
• Roy, C. (2020). China’s grand strategy and Myanmar’s peace process. International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, 22(1), 69-99. doi: 10.1093/irap/lcaa012
• Schweller, R. L. (1994). Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In. International Security, 19(1), 72-107.
• Shang, P. P. (2022). Myanmar’s Foreign Policy: Shifting Legitimacy, Shifting Strategic Culture. Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs, 41(1), 88–105. https://doi.org//10.1177/18681034211044481
• Soong, J. J., Aung, K. H. (2021). Myanmar’s Perception and Strategy toward China’s BRI Expansion on Three Major Projects Development: Hedging Strategic Framework with State-Market-Society Analysis. The Chinese Economy, 54(1), 20-34, https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2020.1809815
• Walt, S. M. (1987). The Origins of Alliances. London: Cornell University Press.
• Wong, P. N., & Yue, W. K. R. (2014). U.S.-China Containment and Counter-Containment in Southeast Asia. African and Asian Studies, 13(1-2), 33–58. https://doi:org//10.1163/15692108-12341284
• Xinhua (2021, 2 Şubat). Major cabinet reshuffle announced in Myanmar. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-02/02/c_139713877.htm, Erişim tarihi: 06.05.2022