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İhracata Yönelik Büyüme Hipotezi Merkezi ve Doğu Avrupa Ülkeleri İçin Geçerli mi?

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 37 Sayı: 4, 870 - 890, 10.11.2022
https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.1011468

Öz

İhracata yönelik büyüme hipotezi pek çok kez incelenmiş ve bu konuda başta Uzak Doğu Ülkeleri olmak üzere genellikle destekleyici sonuçların ortaya konulduğu geniş bir literatür oluşmuştur. İlgili literatürde 1990’lı yıllarla birlikte serbest piyasa ekonomisine geçen ve genellikle 2000’li yıllardan itibaren İhracata yönelik büyümeyi hedefleyen politikaları takip eden Merkezi ve Doğu Avrupa ülkeleri özelinde ise son derece sınırlı araştırmaların olduğu görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada seçilmiş 11 Merkezi ve Doğu Avrupa ülkesi için 2010M01-2018M08 dönemi ihracat ve ekonomik büyüme verileri kullanılmakta ve Emirmahmutoğlu & Köse (2011) ve Hatemi-J (2011) panel nedensellik analizleri ile ihracat ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkileri çerçevesinde araştırılmaktadır. Analiz sonuçlarımız, ülkelerin ihracat ve büyüme potansiyellerine bağlı olarak ihracat bazlı büyüme veya büyüme bazlı ihracat olgularının ülkeler arasında farklılık gösterdiğini ortaya koymakla birlikte panel grubu ülkelerin geneli için her iki nedensellik testinin sonuçlarını bir arada değerlendirdiğimizde genel olarak ihracata dayalı büyüme hipotezinin geniş ölçekte desteklendiğine işaret etmektedir. Bu sonucun yanı sıra elde edilen veriler, ekonomik büyümenin de ihracat üzerinde ayrıca olumlu etkilerinin bulunduğuna işaret etmektedir. İhracat ve ekonomik büyüme arasında bir geri besleme (feedback) olayına dayalı etkileşimli bu ilişkinin varlığı gerek Emirmahmutoğlu & Köse (2011) gerekse Hatemi-J (2011) nedensellik analizleri ile de desteklenmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Abual-Foul, B. (2004). Testing the export-led growth hypothesis: evidence from Jordan. Applied Economics Letters, 11(6), 393–396.
  • Ağayev, S. (2011). İhracat Ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: 12 Geçiş Ekonomisi Örneğinde Panel Eştümleşme Ve Panel Nedensellik Analizleri. Ege Akademik Bakış, 11(2), 241-254.
  • Aktar, S. T. İ., Taban, S., & Aktar, İ. (2008). An Empirical Examination Of The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis İn Turkey. Journal of Yaşar University, 3(11), 1535-1551.
  • Ali, G., & Li, Z. (2018). Exports-led growth or growth-led exports in the case of China and Pakistan: An empirical investigation from the ARDL and Granger causality approach. The International Trade Journal, 32(3), 293-314.
  • Altomonte, C., Batsaikhan, U., Filippo Biondi, F. B., Bravo-Biosca, A., Bukowski, M., Feliu, J., & Zachmann, G. (2017). Remaking Europe: the new manufacturing as an engine for growth. Bruegel Blueprint Series 26 September 2017. Erişim Tarihi: 21.11.2020. https://www.bruegel.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Remaking_Europe_blueprint.pdf
  • Awokuse, T. O. (2003). Is the export‐led growth hypothesis valid for Canada?. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, 36(1), 126-136.
  • Awokuse, T. O. (2007). Causality Between Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth: Evidence From Transition Economies. Economics letters, 94(3), 389-395.
  • Awokuse, T. O. (2008) Trade Openness And Economic Growth: İs Growth Export-Led Or İmport-Led?, Applied Economics, 40:2, 161-173.
  • Awokuse, T. O., & Christopoulos, D. K. (2009). Nonlinear Dynamics And The Exports–Output Growth Nexus. Economic Modelling, 26(1), 184-190.
  • Bal H, Shahanara B., Mamun A.H., & Akça E.E., (2017). Export-led Growth Hypothesis in MINT Countries: A Panel Cointegration Analysis. International Conference On Eurasian Economies.
  • Bal, H, Mamun, A , Basher, S , Uddın, M , Mowla, M . (2019). Export-Led Growth Hypothesis İn Developing Countries: Econometric Evidence From Bangladesh. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 12 (4) , 454-465.
  • Baláž, V., Karasová, K., & Williams, A. M. (2017). The V4 Countries And The EU: A Comparative Perspective. In A Quarter Century of Post-Communism Assessed (pp. 129-159). Palgrave Macmillan, Cham.
  • Balcilar, M., & Ozdemir, Z. A. (2013). The Export-Output Growth Nexus İn Japan: A Bootstrap Rolling Window Approach. Empirical Economics, 44(2), 639-660.
  • Beko, J. (2003). Causality Analysis Of Exports And Economic Growth: Aggregate And Sectoral Results For Slovenia. Eastern European Economics, 41(6), 70-92.
  • Bilas, V., Bošnjak, M., & Franc, S. (2015). Examining The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: The Case Of Croatia. Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, 61(3), 22-31.
  • Biswal, B., & Dhawan, U. (1998) Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Cointegration And Causality Analysis For Taiwan, Applied Economics Letters, 5:11, 699-701.
  • Caetano, J., Galego, A., (2000). Trade Flows Among CEEC And UE Countries: What Are The Future Perspectives? Revista De Economía Mundial. Vol. 15, No. 1, Pp. 65–87. Issn 1576-0162.
  • Cerović, B., & Mitić, S. (2017). Intangible Capital İn A Transition Economy-İmprovements And Constraints: An Analysis Of Serbian Firms. South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, 13(2).
  • Çetintaş, H., & Barişik, S. (2009). Export, Import and Economic Growth: The Case Of Transition Economies. Transition Studies Review, 15(4), 636-649
  • Dawson P. J. & Hubbard L. J. (2004). Exports And Economic Growth İn Central And East European Countries During Transition, Applied Economics, 36:16, 1819-1824.
  • Degelin, N. (2020) Export-Led Growth in Central and Eastern Europe. Is the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis valid? An empirical examination. Unpublished master thesis. Faculteıt Economıe En Bedrıjfswetenschappen Campus Brussel.
  • Djankov, S. (2016). Challenges to Eastern Europe’s growth, EBRD 2016 Conference, Budapest, 10 November. https://www.ebrd.com/documents/commsand.../djankov.pdf, Erişim Tarihi: 25.10.2019.
  • Dritsaki, C., & Stiakakis, E. (2014). Foreign Direct Investments, Exports, and Economic Growth İn Croatia: A Time Series Analysis. Procedia Economics and Finance, 14, 181-190.
  • Dritsakis, N. (2004). Exports, İnvestments And Economic Development Of Pre-Accession Countries Of The European Union: An Empirical İnvestigation Of Bulgaria And Romania. Applied Economics, 36(16), 1831-1838.
  • Elbeydi, K. R., Hamuda, A. M., & Gazda, V. (2010). The relationship between export and economic growth in Libya Arab Jamahiriya. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 1(1), 69.
  • Emirmahmutoglu, F., & Kose, N. (2011). Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels. Economic Modelling, 28 (3), 870–876.
  • Fitzová, H., Žídek, L. (2015), Impact of Trade on Economic Growth in the Czech and Slovak Republics, Economics and Sociology, Vol. 8, No 2, pp. 36-50.
  • Hagemejer, J., & Jakub, M. (2018). Unraveling the economic performance of the CEEC countries. The role of exports and global value chains. NBP Working Paper No. 283.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2011). Asymmetric panel causality tests with an application to the impact of fiscal policy on economic performance in Scandinavia.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2012). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical economics, 43(1), 447-456.
  • Hatemi-J, A., Ajmi, A. N., El Montasser, G., Inglesi-Lotz, R., & Gupta, R. (2016). Research output and economic growth in G7 countries: new evidence from asymmetric panel causality testing. Applied Economics, 48(24), 2301-2308.
  • Inotai, A. (2013). Sustainable Growth Based On Export-Oriented Economic Strategy. Economic Policy Institute: Friedrich Ebert Stiftung.
  • Jordaan, A. C., & Eita, J. H. (2009). Testing The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis For Botswana: A Causality Analysis. Botswana Journal of Economics, 6(10), 2-14.
  • Karunaratne, N. D. (1980). Export Oriented Industrialization Strategies. Intereconomics, 15, 217-223.
  • Konya, L. (2004). Export-led growth, growth-driven export, both or none? Granger causality analysis on OECD countries. Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries (August 17, 2008). Applied Econometrics and International Development, 4(1).
  • Medina-Smith, E. J. (2000). Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for developing countries? A case study of Costa Rica. Policy Issues in International Trade and Commodities.
  • Naudé, W., Surdej, A., & Cameron, M. (2019). The Past and Future of Manufacturing in Central and Eastern Europe: Ready for Industry 4.0?., IZA Discussion Paper 12141.
  • Obradovıć, S., & Lojanıca, N. (2019) Export-Led Growth: Evidence From Post-Communist Serbia. Journal For Economic Forecasting, Institute For Economic Forecasting, Vol. 0(2), Pages 131-145.
  • Özsağır, A., & Aliye, A. (2012). Hizmetler Sektörü İçinde Hizmet Ticaretinin Yeri Ve Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analizi. Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 11(41), 311-331.
  • Panas, E., & Vamvoukas, G. (2002). Further Evidence On The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis. Applied Economics Letters, 9(11), 731-735.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2015). Testing weak cross-sectional dependence in large panels. Econometric Reviews, 34(6-10), 1089-1117.
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50–93.
  • Pesaran, M. H., (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. CESifo Working Paper Series No. 1229.
  • Silaghi, M. I. (2009). Exports-Economic Growth Causality: Evidence From CEE Countries. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 2, 105-117. Exports-Economic Growth Causality: Evidence from CEE Countries.
  • Trošt, M., & Bojnec, Š. (2016). Export-led growth: the case of the Slovenian and Estonian economies. Post-Communist Economies, 28(3), 373-383.
  • Yilanci, V., & Bozoklu, Ş. (2014). Türk sermaye piyasasında fiyat ve işlem hacmi ilişkisi: Zamanla Değişen Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi. Ege Academic Review, 14(2).

Is The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid For The Central And Eastern European Countries?

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 37 Sayı: 4, 870 - 890, 10.11.2022
https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.1011468

Öz

The export-oriented growth hypothesis has been examined many times, and there has been an extensive literature on this subject, mainly in the Far East Countries, with generally supportive results. In the relevant literature, it is seen that there are very limited researches in the Central and Eastern European countries, which switched to a free market economy in the 1990s and generally followed the policies aimed at export-oriented growth since the 2000s. In this study, export and economic growth data for the period 2010M01-2018M08 for 11 selected Central and Eastern European countries are used and investigated within the export and economic growth relations framework with Emirmahmutoğlu & Köse (2011) and Hatemi-J (2011) panel causality analysis. Our analysis results reveal that the export-based growth or growth-based export phenomena differ between countries depending on the export and growth potential of the countries. In addition to this result, the data obtained indicate that economic growth also has positively affects on exports. The existence of this interactive relationship between exports and economic growth based on a feedback event has been supported by both Emirmahmutoğlu & Köse (2011) and Hatemi-J (2011) causality analyzes.

Kaynakça

  • Abual-Foul, B. (2004). Testing the export-led growth hypothesis: evidence from Jordan. Applied Economics Letters, 11(6), 393–396.
  • Ağayev, S. (2011). İhracat Ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: 12 Geçiş Ekonomisi Örneğinde Panel Eştümleşme Ve Panel Nedensellik Analizleri. Ege Akademik Bakış, 11(2), 241-254.
  • Aktar, S. T. İ., Taban, S., & Aktar, İ. (2008). An Empirical Examination Of The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis İn Turkey. Journal of Yaşar University, 3(11), 1535-1551.
  • Ali, G., & Li, Z. (2018). Exports-led growth or growth-led exports in the case of China and Pakistan: An empirical investigation from the ARDL and Granger causality approach. The International Trade Journal, 32(3), 293-314.
  • Altomonte, C., Batsaikhan, U., Filippo Biondi, F. B., Bravo-Biosca, A., Bukowski, M., Feliu, J., & Zachmann, G. (2017). Remaking Europe: the new manufacturing as an engine for growth. Bruegel Blueprint Series 26 September 2017. Erişim Tarihi: 21.11.2020. https://www.bruegel.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Remaking_Europe_blueprint.pdf
  • Awokuse, T. O. (2003). Is the export‐led growth hypothesis valid for Canada?. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, 36(1), 126-136.
  • Awokuse, T. O. (2007). Causality Between Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth: Evidence From Transition Economies. Economics letters, 94(3), 389-395.
  • Awokuse, T. O. (2008) Trade Openness And Economic Growth: İs Growth Export-Led Or İmport-Led?, Applied Economics, 40:2, 161-173.
  • Awokuse, T. O., & Christopoulos, D. K. (2009). Nonlinear Dynamics And The Exports–Output Growth Nexus. Economic Modelling, 26(1), 184-190.
  • Bal H, Shahanara B., Mamun A.H., & Akça E.E., (2017). Export-led Growth Hypothesis in MINT Countries: A Panel Cointegration Analysis. International Conference On Eurasian Economies.
  • Bal, H, Mamun, A , Basher, S , Uddın, M , Mowla, M . (2019). Export-Led Growth Hypothesis İn Developing Countries: Econometric Evidence From Bangladesh. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 12 (4) , 454-465.
  • Baláž, V., Karasová, K., & Williams, A. M. (2017). The V4 Countries And The EU: A Comparative Perspective. In A Quarter Century of Post-Communism Assessed (pp. 129-159). Palgrave Macmillan, Cham.
  • Balcilar, M., & Ozdemir, Z. A. (2013). The Export-Output Growth Nexus İn Japan: A Bootstrap Rolling Window Approach. Empirical Economics, 44(2), 639-660.
  • Beko, J. (2003). Causality Analysis Of Exports And Economic Growth: Aggregate And Sectoral Results For Slovenia. Eastern European Economics, 41(6), 70-92.
  • Bilas, V., Bošnjak, M., & Franc, S. (2015). Examining The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: The Case Of Croatia. Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, 61(3), 22-31.
  • Biswal, B., & Dhawan, U. (1998) Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Cointegration And Causality Analysis For Taiwan, Applied Economics Letters, 5:11, 699-701.
  • Caetano, J., Galego, A., (2000). Trade Flows Among CEEC And UE Countries: What Are The Future Perspectives? Revista De Economía Mundial. Vol. 15, No. 1, Pp. 65–87. Issn 1576-0162.
  • Cerović, B., & Mitić, S. (2017). Intangible Capital İn A Transition Economy-İmprovements And Constraints: An Analysis Of Serbian Firms. South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, 13(2).
  • Çetintaş, H., & Barişik, S. (2009). Export, Import and Economic Growth: The Case Of Transition Economies. Transition Studies Review, 15(4), 636-649
  • Dawson P. J. & Hubbard L. J. (2004). Exports And Economic Growth İn Central And East European Countries During Transition, Applied Economics, 36:16, 1819-1824.
  • Degelin, N. (2020) Export-Led Growth in Central and Eastern Europe. Is the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis valid? An empirical examination. Unpublished master thesis. Faculteıt Economıe En Bedrıjfswetenschappen Campus Brussel.
  • Djankov, S. (2016). Challenges to Eastern Europe’s growth, EBRD 2016 Conference, Budapest, 10 November. https://www.ebrd.com/documents/commsand.../djankov.pdf, Erişim Tarihi: 25.10.2019.
  • Dritsaki, C., & Stiakakis, E. (2014). Foreign Direct Investments, Exports, and Economic Growth İn Croatia: A Time Series Analysis. Procedia Economics and Finance, 14, 181-190.
  • Dritsakis, N. (2004). Exports, İnvestments And Economic Development Of Pre-Accession Countries Of The European Union: An Empirical İnvestigation Of Bulgaria And Romania. Applied Economics, 36(16), 1831-1838.
  • Elbeydi, K. R., Hamuda, A. M., & Gazda, V. (2010). The relationship between export and economic growth in Libya Arab Jamahiriya. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 1(1), 69.
  • Emirmahmutoglu, F., & Kose, N. (2011). Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels. Economic Modelling, 28 (3), 870–876.
  • Fitzová, H., Žídek, L. (2015), Impact of Trade on Economic Growth in the Czech and Slovak Republics, Economics and Sociology, Vol. 8, No 2, pp. 36-50.
  • Hagemejer, J., & Jakub, M. (2018). Unraveling the economic performance of the CEEC countries. The role of exports and global value chains. NBP Working Paper No. 283.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2011). Asymmetric panel causality tests with an application to the impact of fiscal policy on economic performance in Scandinavia.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2012). Asymmetric causality tests with an application. Empirical economics, 43(1), 447-456.
  • Hatemi-J, A., Ajmi, A. N., El Montasser, G., Inglesi-Lotz, R., & Gupta, R. (2016). Research output and economic growth in G7 countries: new evidence from asymmetric panel causality testing. Applied Economics, 48(24), 2301-2308.
  • Inotai, A. (2013). Sustainable Growth Based On Export-Oriented Economic Strategy. Economic Policy Institute: Friedrich Ebert Stiftung.
  • Jordaan, A. C., & Eita, J. H. (2009). Testing The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis For Botswana: A Causality Analysis. Botswana Journal of Economics, 6(10), 2-14.
  • Karunaratne, N. D. (1980). Export Oriented Industrialization Strategies. Intereconomics, 15, 217-223.
  • Konya, L. (2004). Export-led growth, growth-driven export, both or none? Granger causality analysis on OECD countries. Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries (August 17, 2008). Applied Econometrics and International Development, 4(1).
  • Medina-Smith, E. J. (2000). Is the export-led growth hypothesis valid for developing countries? A case study of Costa Rica. Policy Issues in International Trade and Commodities.
  • Naudé, W., Surdej, A., & Cameron, M. (2019). The Past and Future of Manufacturing in Central and Eastern Europe: Ready for Industry 4.0?., IZA Discussion Paper 12141.
  • Obradovıć, S., & Lojanıca, N. (2019) Export-Led Growth: Evidence From Post-Communist Serbia. Journal For Economic Forecasting, Institute For Economic Forecasting, Vol. 0(2), Pages 131-145.
  • Özsağır, A., & Aliye, A. (2012). Hizmetler Sektörü İçinde Hizmet Ticaretinin Yeri Ve Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analizi. Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 11(41), 311-331.
  • Panas, E., & Vamvoukas, G. (2002). Further Evidence On The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis. Applied Economics Letters, 9(11), 731-735.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2015). Testing weak cross-sectional dependence in large panels. Econometric Reviews, 34(6-10), 1089-1117.
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50–93.
  • Pesaran, M. H., (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. CESifo Working Paper Series No. 1229.
  • Silaghi, M. I. (2009). Exports-Economic Growth Causality: Evidence From CEE Countries. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 2, 105-117. Exports-Economic Growth Causality: Evidence from CEE Countries.
  • Trošt, M., & Bojnec, Š. (2016). Export-led growth: the case of the Slovenian and Estonian economies. Post-Communist Economies, 28(3), 373-383.
  • Yilanci, V., & Bozoklu, Ş. (2014). Türk sermaye piyasasında fiyat ve işlem hacmi ilişkisi: Zamanla Değişen Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi. Ege Academic Review, 14(2).
Toplam 46 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Harun Bal 0000-0003-0878-8253

Berk Palandökenlier 0000-0001-9010-7685

Pınar Gümüş Akar 0000-0003-2793-8528

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 9 Eylül 2022
Yayımlanma Tarihi 10 Kasım 2022
Gönderilme Tarihi 24 Ekim 2021
Kabul Tarihi 10 Mart 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 37 Sayı: 4

Kaynak Göster

APA Bal, H., Palandökenlier, B., & Gümüş Akar, P. (2022). İhracata Yönelik Büyüme Hipotezi Merkezi ve Doğu Avrupa Ülkeleri İçin Geçerli mi?. İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 37(4), 870-890. https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.1011468

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İZMİR İKTİSAT DERGİSİ 2022 yılı 37. cilt 1. sayı ile birlikte sadece elektronik olarak yayınlanmaya başlamıştır.