ANALYSIS OF CARBON PRICES WITH SYMMETRIC AND ASYMMETRIC CAUSALITY TEST
Yıl 2020,
Cilt: 16 Sayı: 4, 989 - 1012, 31.12.2020
Mehmet Fatih Bayramoğlu
,
Tezcan Abasız
,
Mehmet Ergün
Öz
In this study, transactions of carbon spot and future prices on the European Energy Market and Intercontinental Futures Exchange, causality analysis of changes in median and variance of oil prices and foreign currency exchange, are analyzed with three different econometric tests. We have found that spot and future carbon prices have negative and positive causality relation. In addition causality relation between carbon prices, oil and foreign currency exchange rate have been detected. Related findings have been discussed in comparison with the literature.
Kaynakça
- Arı, İ. (2010). İklim Değişikliği ile Mücadelede Emisyon Ticareti ve Türkiye Uygulaması, Ankara.
- Arı, A. & Zeren, F. (2011). CO2 Emisyonu ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Panel Veri Analizi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 18(2), 37-47.
- Arı, İ. (2013). Voluntary Emission Trading Potential of Turkey. Energy Policy, 62, 910-919.
- Arouri, M.E.H., Jawadi, F. & Nguyen, D.K. (2012). Nonlinearities In Carbon Spot-futures Price Relationships During Phase II of The EU ETS. Economic Modelling, 29(3), 884-892.
- Bailey, I. (2010). The EU Emissions Trading Scheme. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 1(1), 144-153.
- Barbier, E. (2011). The policy challenges for green economy and sustainable economic development. In Natural resources forum, 35(3), 233-245.
- Başsüllü, Ç. & Tolunay, A. (2015). Dünya Genelindeki Emisyon Ticaret Sistemleri ve Karbon Borsaları, https://www.academia.edu/19421838/D%C3%BCnya_Genelindeki_Emisyon_Ticaret_Sistemleri_ve_Karbon_Borsalar%C4%B1, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.02.2018).
- Bayramoğlu, M. F., Tay Bayramoğlu, A. & Ergün, M. A. (2019). Döviz Kuru ve Petrol Fiyatları Arasındaki İlişkinin Ortalamada ve Varyansta Nedensellik Testi ile Analizi. Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 7(5), 2112-2123.
- Betsill, M. & Hoffmann, M.J. (2011). The Contours of “Cap and Trade”: The Evolution of Emissions Trading Systems for Greenhouse Gases. Review of Policy Research, 28(1), 83-106.
- Binboğa, G. (2014). Uluslararası Karbon Ticareti ve Türkiye/Internatıonal Carbon Trade and Turkey. Journal of Yaşar University, 9(34), 5732–5759.
- Bloomberg, M. & Pope, C. (2017). Climate of hope: How cities, businesses, and citizens can save the planet. St. Martin's Press. New York.
- Bréchet, T., Ménière, Y., & Picard, P.M. (2016). The Clean Development Mechanism In A World Carbon Market. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue Canadienne D'économique, 49(4), 1569-1598.
- Calel, R. (2011). Climate change and carbon markets: a panoramic history, Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Working Paper, No: 62.
Chambers, N. (2010). Türev Piyasalar. İstanbul: Beta Basım Yayın.
- Cheung, Y.W., & Ng, L.K. (1996). A Causality-In-Variance Test And Its Application to Financial Market Prices. Journal of Econometrics, 72(1-2), 33-48.
- Cui, L. & Huang, Y. (2017). Exploring The Schemes For Green Climate Fund Financing: International Lessons. World Development, 101, 173-187.
- Çelikkol, H. & Özkan, N. (2011). Karbon Piyasaları ve Türkiye Perspektifi, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi, 31, 203-222.
- Demireli, E. & Hepkorucu, A. (2010). Çevre Finansmanı: Kavramsal Bir Yaklaşımla Karbon Finans Borsası. Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, 2(2), 37-48.
- Dickey, D.A. & Fuller W.A. (1979). Distrbution of The Estimations for Autoregressive Time Series With A Unit Root. Journal Of American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
- Dutta, A. (2018). Modeling and Forecasting The Volatility of Carbon Emission Market: The Role of Outliers, Time-Varying Jumps and Oil Price Risk. Journal of Cleaner Production, 172, 2773-2781.
- Economics, V. (2017). State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2017. Washington.
- Eichner, T. & Pethig, R. (2011). Carbon Leakage, The Green Paradox, and Perfect Future Markets. International Economic Review, 52(3), 767-805.
- Ekinci, F. & Gönençgil, B. (2015). Dünya Karbon Emisyon Piyasalarında Türkiye’nin Yeri, 6. Ulusal Hava Kirliliği ve Kontrolü Sempozyumu 2015.
- Fan, Y., Wu, J., Xia, Y. & Liu, J. Y. (2016). How Will a Nationwide Carbon Market Affect Regional Economies and Efficiency of CO2 Emission Reduction In China?. China Economic Review, 38, 151-166.
- Feng, Z.H., Zou, L.L., & Wei, Y.M. (2011). Carbon Price Volatility: Evidence from EU ETS. Applied Energy, 88(3), 590-598.
- Granger, C.W. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 424-438.
- Granger, C.W. & Yoon, G. (2002). Hidden Cointegration. U of California, Economics Working Paper, (2002-02).
- Guivarch, C., & Monjon, S. (2017). Identifying The Main Uncertainty Drivers of Energy Security In A Low-carbon World: The Case of Europe. Energy economics, 64, 530-541.
- Hacker, R.S. & Hatemi-J, A. (2006). Tests for Causality Between Integrated Variables Using Asymptotic and Bootstrap Distributions: Theory and Application. Applied Economics, 38(13), 1489-1500.
- Hatemi-J, A. (2003). A New Method to Choose Optimal Lag Order In Stable and Unstable VAR Models. Applied Economics Letters, 10(3), 135-137.
- Hafner, C.M. & Herwartz, H. (2006). A Lagrange Multiplier Test for Causality In Variance. Economics Letters, 93(1), 137-141.
- Hatemi-J, A. (2012). Asymmetric Causality Tests With an Application. Empirical Economics, 43(1), 447-456.
- Helleiner, E. & Thistlethwaite, J. (2013). Subprime Catalyst: Financial Regulatory Reform and the Strengthening of US Carbon Market Governance. Regulation & Governance, 7(4), 496-511.
- Hsiao, C. (1981). Autoregressive Modelling and Money-Income Causality Detection. Journal of Monetary Economics, 7(1), 85-106.
- Kyngas, H. & Rissanen, M. (2001). Support As a Crucial Predictor of Good Compliance of Adolescents with a Chronic Disease. Journal of Clinical Nursing, 10(6), 767-774.
- Lederer, M. (2012). Market Making Via Regulation: The Role of The State In Carbon Markets. Regulation & Governance, 6(4), 524-544.
- Lee, S.Y. (2012). Corporate Carbon Strategies In Responding to Climate Change. Business Strategy and the Environment, 21(1), 33-48.
- Luo, L., Lan, Y.C. & Tang, Q. (2012). Corporate Incentives to Disclose Carbon Information: Evidence From the CDP Global 500 Report. Journal of International Financial Management & Accounting, 23(2), 93-120.
- Luo, C. & Wu, D. (2016). Environment and Economic Risk: An Analysis of Carbon Emission Market and Portfolio Management. Environmental Research, 149, 297-301.
- Mizrach, B. (2012). Integration of The Global Carbon Markets. Energy Economics, 34(1), 335-349.
- Mol, A.P. (2012). Carbon Flows, Financial Markets and Climate Change Mitigation. Environmental Development, 1(1), 10-24.
- Narin, M. (2013). Kyoto Protokolü Esneklik Mekanizması: Emisyon Ticareti. In International Conference on Eurasian Economies, 17-18.
- Özsoy, C.E. (2015). Düşük Karbon Ekonomisi ve Türkiye’nin Karbon Ayak İzi. Hak İş Uluslararası Emek ve Toplum Dergisi, 4(9), 198-215.
- Öztürk, A., Demirci, U. & Türker, M.F. (2011). İklim Değişikliği ile Mücadelede Karbon Piyasaları ve Türkiye İçin Bir Değerlendirme, Ulusal Akdeniz Orman ve Çevre Sempozyumu.
- Pata, U.K. (2018). Türkiye’de Enflasyon, Tasarruf ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkilerin Simetrik ve Asimetrik Nedensellik Testleri ile Analizi. Maliye Dergisi, 174, 92-111.
- Peng, J., Sun, J. & Luo, R. (2015). Corporate Voluntary Carbon Information Disclosure: Evidence from China's Listed Companies. The World Economy, 38(1), 91-109.
- Phillips, P.C. & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root In Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
- Qi, T. & Weng, Y. (2016). Economic Impacts of An International Carbon Market In Achieving The INDC Targets. Energy, 109, 886-893.
- Sims, C.A. (1972). Money, Income, and Causality. The American Economic Review, 62(4), 540-552.
- Sun, D., Sun, J., Zhang, X., Yan, Q., Wei, Q. & Zhou, Y. (2016). Carbon Markets In China: Development and Challenges. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 52(6), 1361-1371.
- Tay Bayramoglu, A. & Yildirim, E. (2017). The Relationship Between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in the USA: A Non-Linear ARDL Bounds Test Approach. Energy and Power Engineering, 9(3), 170-186.
- Tay Bayramoğlu, A., Çetin, M. & Karabulut, G. (2016). The Impact of Biofuels Demand on Agricultural Commodity Prices: Evidence from U.S Corn Market. Journal of Economics and Development Studies, 4(2), 189-206.
- Tay Bayramoğlu, T. & Koç Yurtkur, A. (2016). Türkiye’de Karbon Emisyonu ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Doğrusal Olmayan Eşbütünleşme Analizi. Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 16(4), 31-46.
- Thomson Reuters (2018). Carbon Market Monitor, http://www.comex.kz/images/acer/2017.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 18.06.2019).
- Toda, H.Y. & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical Inference In Vector Autoregressions With Possibly Integrated Processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250.
- Xia, Y. & Tang, Z. (2017). The Impacts of Emissions Accounting Methods On An Imperfect Competitive Carbon Trading Market. Energy, 119, 67-76.
- Yalçın, A.Z. (2010). Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma İçin Düşük Karbon Ekonomisinin Önemi Ve Türkiye İçin Bir Değerlendirme. Balıkesir University Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 13(24), 186-203.
- Yılancı, V. & Bozoklu, Ş. (2014). Türk Sermaye Piyasasında Fiyat ve İşlem Hacmi İlişkisi: Zamanla Değişen Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi. Ege Academic Review, 14(2), 211-220.
- Yılmaz, A. & Altay, H. (2016). Examining The Cointegration Relationship and Volatility Spillover Between Imported Crude Oil Prices and Exchange Rate: The Turkish Case. Ege Akademik Bakış Dergisi, 16(4), 655-671.
KARBON FİYATLARININ SİMETRİK VE ASİMETRİK NEDENSELLİK TESTİ İLE ANALİZİ
Yıl 2020,
Cilt: 16 Sayı: 4, 989 - 1012, 31.12.2020
Mehmet Fatih Bayramoğlu
,
Tezcan Abasız
,
Mehmet Ergün
Öz
Bu çalışmada, Avrupa Enerji Borsası ve Kıtalararası Vadeli İşlem Borsası’nda işlem gören karbon spot ve vadeli fiyatlarının, petrol fiyatının ve döviz kurunun ortalamada ve varyansta nedensellik analizleri, üç farklı ekonometrik nedensellik testi ile analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonucunda, spot ve vadeli karbon fiyatları arasında negatif ve pozitif yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca karbon fiyatları ile petrol ve döviz kuru arasında da nedensellik ilişkileri görülmüştür. İlgili bulgular, literatür ile karşılaştırmalı olarak sunulmuştur.
Kaynakça
- Arı, İ. (2010). İklim Değişikliği ile Mücadelede Emisyon Ticareti ve Türkiye Uygulaması, Ankara.
- Arı, A. & Zeren, F. (2011). CO2 Emisyonu ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Panel Veri Analizi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi: Celal Bayar Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 18(2), 37-47.
- Arı, İ. (2013). Voluntary Emission Trading Potential of Turkey. Energy Policy, 62, 910-919.
- Arouri, M.E.H., Jawadi, F. & Nguyen, D.K. (2012). Nonlinearities In Carbon Spot-futures Price Relationships During Phase II of The EU ETS. Economic Modelling, 29(3), 884-892.
- Bailey, I. (2010). The EU Emissions Trading Scheme. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 1(1), 144-153.
- Barbier, E. (2011). The policy challenges for green economy and sustainable economic development. In Natural resources forum, 35(3), 233-245.
- Başsüllü, Ç. & Tolunay, A. (2015). Dünya Genelindeki Emisyon Ticaret Sistemleri ve Karbon Borsaları, https://www.academia.edu/19421838/D%C3%BCnya_Genelindeki_Emisyon_Ticaret_Sistemleri_ve_Karbon_Borsalar%C4%B1, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.02.2018).
- Bayramoğlu, M. F., Tay Bayramoğlu, A. & Ergün, M. A. (2019). Döviz Kuru ve Petrol Fiyatları Arasındaki İlişkinin Ortalamada ve Varyansta Nedensellik Testi ile Analizi. Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 7(5), 2112-2123.
- Betsill, M. & Hoffmann, M.J. (2011). The Contours of “Cap and Trade”: The Evolution of Emissions Trading Systems for Greenhouse Gases. Review of Policy Research, 28(1), 83-106.
- Binboğa, G. (2014). Uluslararası Karbon Ticareti ve Türkiye/Internatıonal Carbon Trade and Turkey. Journal of Yaşar University, 9(34), 5732–5759.
- Bloomberg, M. & Pope, C. (2017). Climate of hope: How cities, businesses, and citizens can save the planet. St. Martin's Press. New York.
- Bréchet, T., Ménière, Y., & Picard, P.M. (2016). The Clean Development Mechanism In A World Carbon Market. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue Canadienne D'économique, 49(4), 1569-1598.
- Calel, R. (2011). Climate change and carbon markets: a panoramic history, Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Working Paper, No: 62.
Chambers, N. (2010). Türev Piyasalar. İstanbul: Beta Basım Yayın.
- Cheung, Y.W., & Ng, L.K. (1996). A Causality-In-Variance Test And Its Application to Financial Market Prices. Journal of Econometrics, 72(1-2), 33-48.
- Cui, L. & Huang, Y. (2017). Exploring The Schemes For Green Climate Fund Financing: International Lessons. World Development, 101, 173-187.
- Çelikkol, H. & Özkan, N. (2011). Karbon Piyasaları ve Türkiye Perspektifi, Dumlupınar Üniversitesi, 31, 203-222.
- Demireli, E. & Hepkorucu, A. (2010). Çevre Finansmanı: Kavramsal Bir Yaklaşımla Karbon Finans Borsası. Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, 2(2), 37-48.
- Dickey, D.A. & Fuller W.A. (1979). Distrbution of The Estimations for Autoregressive Time Series With A Unit Root. Journal Of American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
- Dutta, A. (2018). Modeling and Forecasting The Volatility of Carbon Emission Market: The Role of Outliers, Time-Varying Jumps and Oil Price Risk. Journal of Cleaner Production, 172, 2773-2781.
- Economics, V. (2017). State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2017. Washington.
- Eichner, T. & Pethig, R. (2011). Carbon Leakage, The Green Paradox, and Perfect Future Markets. International Economic Review, 52(3), 767-805.
- Ekinci, F. & Gönençgil, B. (2015). Dünya Karbon Emisyon Piyasalarında Türkiye’nin Yeri, 6. Ulusal Hava Kirliliği ve Kontrolü Sempozyumu 2015.
- Fan, Y., Wu, J., Xia, Y. & Liu, J. Y. (2016). How Will a Nationwide Carbon Market Affect Regional Economies and Efficiency of CO2 Emission Reduction In China?. China Economic Review, 38, 151-166.
- Feng, Z.H., Zou, L.L., & Wei, Y.M. (2011). Carbon Price Volatility: Evidence from EU ETS. Applied Energy, 88(3), 590-598.
- Granger, C.W. (1969). Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 424-438.
- Granger, C.W. & Yoon, G. (2002). Hidden Cointegration. U of California, Economics Working Paper, (2002-02).
- Guivarch, C., & Monjon, S. (2017). Identifying The Main Uncertainty Drivers of Energy Security In A Low-carbon World: The Case of Europe. Energy economics, 64, 530-541.
- Hacker, R.S. & Hatemi-J, A. (2006). Tests for Causality Between Integrated Variables Using Asymptotic and Bootstrap Distributions: Theory and Application. Applied Economics, 38(13), 1489-1500.
- Hatemi-J, A. (2003). A New Method to Choose Optimal Lag Order In Stable and Unstable VAR Models. Applied Economics Letters, 10(3), 135-137.
- Hafner, C.M. & Herwartz, H. (2006). A Lagrange Multiplier Test for Causality In Variance. Economics Letters, 93(1), 137-141.
- Hatemi-J, A. (2012). Asymmetric Causality Tests With an Application. Empirical Economics, 43(1), 447-456.
- Helleiner, E. & Thistlethwaite, J. (2013). Subprime Catalyst: Financial Regulatory Reform and the Strengthening of US Carbon Market Governance. Regulation & Governance, 7(4), 496-511.
- Hsiao, C. (1981). Autoregressive Modelling and Money-Income Causality Detection. Journal of Monetary Economics, 7(1), 85-106.
- Kyngas, H. & Rissanen, M. (2001). Support As a Crucial Predictor of Good Compliance of Adolescents with a Chronic Disease. Journal of Clinical Nursing, 10(6), 767-774.
- Lederer, M. (2012). Market Making Via Regulation: The Role of The State In Carbon Markets. Regulation & Governance, 6(4), 524-544.
- Lee, S.Y. (2012). Corporate Carbon Strategies In Responding to Climate Change. Business Strategy and the Environment, 21(1), 33-48.
- Luo, L., Lan, Y.C. & Tang, Q. (2012). Corporate Incentives to Disclose Carbon Information: Evidence From the CDP Global 500 Report. Journal of International Financial Management & Accounting, 23(2), 93-120.
- Luo, C. & Wu, D. (2016). Environment and Economic Risk: An Analysis of Carbon Emission Market and Portfolio Management. Environmental Research, 149, 297-301.
- Mizrach, B. (2012). Integration of The Global Carbon Markets. Energy Economics, 34(1), 335-349.
- Mol, A.P. (2012). Carbon Flows, Financial Markets and Climate Change Mitigation. Environmental Development, 1(1), 10-24.
- Narin, M. (2013). Kyoto Protokolü Esneklik Mekanizması: Emisyon Ticareti. In International Conference on Eurasian Economies, 17-18.
- Özsoy, C.E. (2015). Düşük Karbon Ekonomisi ve Türkiye’nin Karbon Ayak İzi. Hak İş Uluslararası Emek ve Toplum Dergisi, 4(9), 198-215.
- Öztürk, A., Demirci, U. & Türker, M.F. (2011). İklim Değişikliği ile Mücadelede Karbon Piyasaları ve Türkiye İçin Bir Değerlendirme, Ulusal Akdeniz Orman ve Çevre Sempozyumu.
- Pata, U.K. (2018). Türkiye’de Enflasyon, Tasarruf ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkilerin Simetrik ve Asimetrik Nedensellik Testleri ile Analizi. Maliye Dergisi, 174, 92-111.
- Peng, J., Sun, J. & Luo, R. (2015). Corporate Voluntary Carbon Information Disclosure: Evidence from China's Listed Companies. The World Economy, 38(1), 91-109.
- Phillips, P.C. & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root In Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
- Qi, T. & Weng, Y. (2016). Economic Impacts of An International Carbon Market In Achieving The INDC Targets. Energy, 109, 886-893.
- Sims, C.A. (1972). Money, Income, and Causality. The American Economic Review, 62(4), 540-552.
- Sun, D., Sun, J., Zhang, X., Yan, Q., Wei, Q. & Zhou, Y. (2016). Carbon Markets In China: Development and Challenges. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 52(6), 1361-1371.
- Tay Bayramoglu, A. & Yildirim, E. (2017). The Relationship Between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in the USA: A Non-Linear ARDL Bounds Test Approach. Energy and Power Engineering, 9(3), 170-186.
- Tay Bayramoğlu, A., Çetin, M. & Karabulut, G. (2016). The Impact of Biofuels Demand on Agricultural Commodity Prices: Evidence from U.S Corn Market. Journal of Economics and Development Studies, 4(2), 189-206.
- Tay Bayramoğlu, T. & Koç Yurtkur, A. (2016). Türkiye’de Karbon Emisyonu ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Doğrusal Olmayan Eşbütünleşme Analizi. Bolu Abant İzzet Baysal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 16(4), 31-46.
- Thomson Reuters (2018). Carbon Market Monitor, http://www.comex.kz/images/acer/2017.pdf, (Erişim Tarihi: 18.06.2019).
- Toda, H.Y. & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical Inference In Vector Autoregressions With Possibly Integrated Processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250.
- Xia, Y. & Tang, Z. (2017). The Impacts of Emissions Accounting Methods On An Imperfect Competitive Carbon Trading Market. Energy, 119, 67-76.
- Yalçın, A.Z. (2010). Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma İçin Düşük Karbon Ekonomisinin Önemi Ve Türkiye İçin Bir Değerlendirme. Balıkesir University Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 13(24), 186-203.
- Yılancı, V. & Bozoklu, Ş. (2014). Türk Sermaye Piyasasında Fiyat ve İşlem Hacmi İlişkisi: Zamanla Değişen Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi. Ege Academic Review, 14(2), 211-220.
- Yılmaz, A. & Altay, H. (2016). Examining The Cointegration Relationship and Volatility Spillover Between Imported Crude Oil Prices and Exchange Rate: The Turkish Case. Ege Akademik Bakış Dergisi, 16(4), 655-671.