BRICS ÜLKELERİNDE FİNANSAL GELİŞMİŞLİĞİ ETKİLEYEN FAKTÖRLERİN ANALİZİ

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 19 Sayı: 4, 746 - 762, 29.12.2023

Ayşegül Baykul

https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.1273259

Öz

Bir ülkenin ekonomik kalkınması ve sürdürülebilir büyümesi için finansal gelişmişlik hayati bir öneme sahiptir. Finansal sektör gelişiminin belirleyicilerine odaklanan literatür çok çeşitlidir ancak tartışmalıdır. Bu çalışmada, BRICS ülkeleri için doğal kaynaklar, ekonomik büyüme, tasarruflar, cari işlemler dengesi ve finansal sektör gelişimi arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin ampirik olarak araştırılması amaçlanmıştır. Çalışmada uzun ve kısa dönemli ilişkileri tahmin etmek için Tamamen Değiştirilmiş Sıradan En Küçük Kareler (FMOLS) ve Dinamik Sıradan En Küçük Kareler (DOLS) metodolojileri kullanılmıştır. Analizler, 2001-2020 döneminin verileriyle gerçekleştirilmiştir. Ampirik bulgular değişkenlerin eşbütünleşik olduğunu göstermektedir. FMOLS modellerinin uzun dönem katsayıları tahmin sonuçlarına göre, kişi başına ekonomik büyüme, toplam doğal kaynak rantı ve cari hesap dengesi ile finansal gelişme arasında negatif istatistiki olarak anlamlı ilişki, brüt tasarruflar ile finansal gelişme arasında pozitif ve istatistiki olarak anlamlı ilişki bulunmuştur. DOLS sonuçlarına göre; kişi başına ekonomik büyüme, toplam doğal kaynak rantı ile finansal gelişme arasında negatif ve anlamlı bir ilişki mevcutken, brüt tasarruflar ile finansal gelişme arasında pozitif ve anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Sonuçlar BRICS ülkeleri için finansal sürdürülebilirlik perspektifi içerisinde tartışılmış ve politika çıkarımları sunulmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Finansal Gelişmişlik, Tamamen Değiştirilmiş Sıradan En Küçük Kareler Modeli (FMOLS), Dinamik Sıradan En Küçük Kareler (DOLS) Modeli

ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN BRICS COUNTRIES

Öz

Financial development is of vital importance for a country's economic development and sustainable growth. The literature focusing on the determinants of financial sector development is diverse but controversial. This study aims to empirically investigate the long-term relationship between natural resources, economic growth, savings, current account balance, and financial sector development for BRICS countries. The Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) and Dynamic OLS (DOLS) methodologies were used to estimate long- and short-term relationships in the study. Analyses were conducted using data from the period 2001-2020. Empirical findings indicate that the variables are cointegrated. According to the estimation results of FMOLS models' long-term coefficients, there is a statistically significant negative relationship between per capita economic growth, total natural resource rent, current account balance, and financial development, and a statistically significant positive relationship between gross savings and financial development. According to the DOLS results, there is a statistically significant negative relationship between per capita economic growth and total natural resource rent with financial development, and a statistically significant positive relationship between gross savings and financial development. The results are discussed within the context of the financial sustainability perspective for BRICS countries and policy implications are presented.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Financial Development, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares Model (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) Model.

Kaynakça

• Acheampong, A. O. (2019). Modelling for insight: Does financial development improve environmental quality? Energy Economics, 83, 156-179.
• Açdoyuran, B. & Kılıç, N. Ö. (2018). BRICS ülkelerinde finansal gelişme ve büyüme ilişkisi: Panel veri analizi. IKSAD II –Internatıonal Conference on Social Sciences.
• Ak, M. Z. & İnal, V. (2019). Yükselen piyasa ekonomilerinde ticari açıklık, finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme: Bir panel nedensellik analizi. Ekoist: Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, (31), 1-16
• Arestis, P. & Demetriades, P. O. (1997). Financial development and economic growth: Assessing the evidence. The Economic Journal, 107(442), 783-799.
• Baltagi, B. H., Demetriades, P. O. & Law, S. H. (2009). Financial development and openness: Evidence from panel data. Journal of Development Economics,89(2), 285–296.
• Barro, R. J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross section of countries. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 407-443.
• Beck, T. (2011). Finance and Oil: Is there a resource curse in financial development? European Banking Center Discussion Paper, (2011-004).
• Beck, T. & Levine, R. (2002). Industry growth and capital allocation: Does having a market- or bankbased system matter? Journal of Financial Economics, 64(2), 147-180
• Beck, T., Demirgüç-Kunt, A. & Levine, R. (2000). A new database on the structure and development of the financial sector. The World Bank Economic Review, 14(3), 597-605. Beck, T., Levine, R. & Loayza, N. (2000). Finance and the sources of growth. Journal of Financial Economics, 58(1-2), 261-300.
• Beck, T. & Levine, R. (2004). Stock markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence. J. Bank. Finance 28, 423–442.
• Bencivenga, V. R. & Smith, B. D. (1993), Some consequences of credit rationing in an endogenous growth model. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 17 Nos 1/2, pp. 97-122.
• Buffie, E. (1984), Financial repression, the new structuralists, and stabilization policy in semiindustrialized economies. Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 14 No. 3, pp. 305-322.
• Cankal, E. & Simba, H. M. A. (2020), Empirical analysis of financial development institutions and economic growth in Tanzania: Based on ARDL model. Journal of Business Research-Turk, Vol. 12 No. 2, pp. 1962-1973.
• Chen, J. & Wang, Y. (2022). Household savings and financial development: Evidence from China. Finance Research Letters, 41, 101944.
• Cheng, C. Y., Chien, M. S. & Lee, C. C. (2021). ICT diffusion, financial development, and economic growth: An international cross-country analysis. Economic modelling, 94, 662-671.
• Cherif, M. & Dreger, C. (2016). Institutional determinants of financial development in MENA countries. Review of Development Economics, 20(3), 670–680.
• Chinn, M. D. & Ito, H. (2007). Current account balances, financial development and institutions: Assaying the world “saving glut”. Journal of International Money and Finance, 26(4), 546-569.
• Demetriades, P.O. & Hussein, K.A. 1996. Does financial development cause economic growth? Timeseries evidence from 16 countries. Journal of Development Economics, 51(2):387–411.
• Diamond, D.W. (1984), Financial intermediation and delegated monitoring. The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 51 No. 3, pp. 393-414.
• Edo, S., Okodua, H. & Odebiyi, J. (2019). Internet adoption and financial development in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Nigeria and Kenya. African Development Review,31(1), 144–160.
• Ehigiamusoe, K. U., Guptan, V. & Narayanan, S. (2021). Rethinking the impact of GDP on financial development: Evidence from heterogeneous panels. African Development Review, 33(1), 1-13.
• Goldman Sachs, (2001). Building better global economic brics, Written By Jim O’Neill, Global Economics Paper, No.66, 30th November 2001. Gökmen, G. & Kirca, Ö. (2018). Financial openness, institutional quality, and economic growth: Evidence from emerging economies. Journal of economic studies, 45(2), 345-364.
• Gözgör, G. (2018). Determinants of the domestic credits in developing economies: The role of political risks. Research in International Business and Finance, 46, 430-443.
• Greenwood, J. & Jovanovic, B. (1990). Financial development, growth, and the distribution of income. Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 1076-1107.
• Guan, J., Kirikkaleli, D., Bibi, A. & Zhang, W. (2020). Natural resources rents nexus with financial development in the presence of globalization: Is the “resource curse” exist or myth? Resources Policy, 66, 101641. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101641
• Guru, B. K. & Yadav, I. S. (2019). Financial development and economic growth: Panel evidence from BRICS. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 24(47), 113-126.
• Gwartney, J. D., Lawson, R. A. & Hall, J. C. (2016). Economic freedom of the world: 2016 annual report. Fraser Institute.
• Hoshmand, H., Hosseini, S. M. S. A. & Moghani, N. R. (2013). Oil rents, institutions and financial development: Case study of selected oil exporting countries. Res. J. Recent Sci. 2, 100–108. https:// profdoc.um.ac.ir/paper-abstract-1039067.html.
• Huang, C. C., Lin, C. H. & Yeh, C. Y. (2020). Financial development and economic growth: New evidence from a meta-analysis. Applied Economics Letters, 27(11), 897-905.
• Ibrahim, M. & Sare, Y.A., 2018. Determinants of financial development in Africa: How robust is the interactive effect of trade openness and human capital? Econ. Anal. Pol. 60, 18–26. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.eap.2018.09.002.
• Ikhide, S. (2015). The finance and growth debate in Africa: What role for financial inclusion. University of Stellenbosch Business School.
• Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53-74.
• Isik, O. & Unsal, O. F. (2020). Financial development and economic growth: Evidence from emerging economies. International Journal of Finance and Economics, 25(4), 476-492.
• Islam, N. (1995). Growth empirics: A panel data approach. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(4), 1127-1170.
• Khan, M. A., Khan, M. A., Abdulahi, M. E., Liaqat, I. & Shah, S. S. H. (2019). Institutional quality and financial development: The United States perspective. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 49, 67-80.
• Khan, Z., Hussain, M., Shahbaz, M., Yang, S. & Jiao, Z., (2020). Natural resource abundance technological innovation, and human capital nexus with financial development: A case study of China.
• Resour. Pol. 65, 101585. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101585 King, R. G. & Levine, R. (1993). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3), 717-737.
• Law, S. H. & Habibullah, M. S. (2009). The determinants of financial development: Institutions, openness and financial liberalisation. SouthAfrican Journal of Economics,77(1), 45–58.
• Levin, A., Lin, C. F. & Chu, C. S. J. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1-24.
• Levine, R. (1997). Financial development and economic growth: views and agenda, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 35, pp. 688-726.
• Li, Y., Naqvi, B., Caglar, E. & Chu, C.C., (2020). N-11 countries: are the new victims of resource-curse? Resour. Pol. 67, 101697. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101697
• Li, Z., Rizvi, S. K. A., Rubbaniy, G. & Umar, M. (2021). Understanding the dynamics of resource curse in G7 countries: The role of natural resource rents and the three facets of financial development. Resources Policy, 73, 102141.
• Lucas, R.E. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 22 No. 1, pp. 3-42.
• Lustrilanang, P., Suwarno, Darusalam, Rizki, L. T., Omar, N. & Said, J. (2023). The role of control of corruption and quality of governance in ASEAN: Evidence from DOLS and FMOLS Test. Cogent Business & Management, 10(1), 2154060.
• Naceur, S. B., Cherif, M. & Kandil, M. (2014). What drives the development of the MENA financial sector?. Borsa Istanbul Review,14(4),212–223.
• Naseer, A., Su, C.-W., Mirza, N. & Li, J.-P. (2020). Double jeopardy of resources and investment curse in South Asia: Is technology the only way out? Resour. Pol. 68, 101702. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. resourpol.2020.101702
• Nayak, J. M. (2022). Does financial development still a spur to economic growth in India?. Journal of Public Affairs, 22(3), e2328.
• Owusu-Agyei, S., Okafor, G., Chijoke-Mgbame, A.M., Ohalehi, P. & Hasan, F. (2020). Internet adoption and financial development in Sub-Saharan Africa. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 161, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120293.
• Patrick, H.T. (1966). Financial development and economic growth in underdeveloped countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 174–189.
• Pesaran, M. H. & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50–93.
• Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A. & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence. The econometrics journal, 11(1), 105-127.
• Phuc Canh, N. & Trung Thong, N., (2020). Nexus between financialization and natural resources rents: Empirical evidence in a global sample. Resour. Pol. 66, 101590. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101590
• Rajan, R. & Zingales, L. (1998). Financial development and growth. American economic review, 88(3), 559-586.
• Robinson, J. (1952), The generalization of the general theory, The rate of ınterest and other essays, Macmillan, London.
• Robinson, J. (1979). The generalisation of the general theory. In The generalisation of the general theory and other essays (pp. 1-76). London: Palgrave Macmillan UK.
• Shahbaz, M., Naeem, M., Ahad, M. & Tahir, I. (2018). Is natural resource abundance a stimulus for financial development in the USA? Resources Policy, 55, 223-232. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j. resourpol.2017.12.006 .
• Shan, J. (2005). Does financial development ‘lead’ economic growth? A vector autoregression appraisal, Applied Economics, Vol. 37 No. 12, pp. 1353-1367.
• Stiglitz, J. E. & Weiss, A. (1983), Incentive effects of terminations: Applications to the credit and labor markets, The American Economic Review, Vol. 73 No. 5, pp. 912-927.
• Su, C.-W., Sun, T., Ahmad, S.& Mirza, N., (2021). Does institutional quality and remittances inflow crowd-in private investment to avoid Dutch Disease? A case for emerging seven (E7) economies. Resour. Pol. 72, 102111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102111.
• Sun, Q. & Tong, W.H.S. (2000). The effect of U.S. trade deficit announcements on the stock prices of U.S. and Japanese automakers. J. Financ. Res. 23, 15–43. https://doi.org/ 10.1111/j.1475- 6803.2000.tb00809.x.
• Sun, Y., Ak, A., Serener, B. & Xiong, D. (2020). Natural resource abundance and financial development: A case study of emerging seven (E− 7) economies. Resources Policy, 67, 101660.
• Umar, M., Ji, X., Mirza, N. & Rahat, B., (2021) The impact of resource curse on banking efficiency: Evidence from twelve oil producing countries. Resour. Pol. 72, 102080. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. resourpol.2021.102080
• Wang, C., Zhang, X., Ghadimi, P., Liu, Q., Lim, M. K. & Stanley, H. E. (2019). The impact of regional financial development on economic growth in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region: A spatial econometric analysis. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 521, 635-648.
• Wijnberg, S.V. (1983), “Interest rate management in LDCs”. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 12 No. 3, pp. 433-452.
• Yuxiang, K. & Chen, Z. (2011). Resource abundance and financial development: Evidence from China. Resources Policy, 36(1), 72-79.
• Zaidi, S. A. H., Wei, Z., Gedikli, A., Zafar, M. W., Hou, F. & Iftikhar, Y. (2019). The impact of globalization, natural resources abundance, and human capital on financial development: Evidence from thirty-one OECD countries. Resources Policy, 64, 101476. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j. resourpol.2019.101476.