İSTİKRAR BEŞGENİ MODELİ: TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNE MAKRO DÜZEYDE UYGULAMA

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 20 Sayı: ICMEB'24 Özel Sayı, 1 - 21, 30.10.2024

Huriye Gonca Diler

https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.1486241

Öz

Devletlerin istikrarsızlık sorunu, ülkelerin ekonomilerini etkilemektedir. Planlı ekonomiden piyasa ekonomisine geçen her ekonominin temel amacı, ekonomik gerilemenin durdurulması, iç ve dış dengesizliklerin giderilmesi ve sürekli bir ekonomik büyümenin sağlanmasıdır. Bunun için farklı düzeylerde istikrarı yönetmeyi mümkün kılacak etkili bir araca ihtiyaç vardır. Ekonomileri istikrara kavuşturmak için ortak ve temel farklılıkları vurgulamak amacıyla, bir dönemden diğerine geçişte makroekonomik politikalar hakkında bir görüş elde etmeyi sağlayan makroekonomik istikrar beşgeni kavramı kullanılmaktadır. Bu kavram, kamu politikalarının etkinliğinin değerlendirilmesi konusunda yeni bir anlayış getirmiştir. Düşük-orta gelirli Türkiye ekonomisinde 2001 yılında yaşanan kriz için uygulanan politikaların ve sonrasındaki yirmi yılın istikrar durumunu analiz edebilmek amacıyla 2002-2023 döneminde makroekonomik istikrar beşgeninin (MSP) uygulanabilirliği araştırılmıştır. Bu kıyaslama aracı, enflasyon ve ekonomik büyüme, işsizlik, bütçe açığı (GSYH’nin %’si), cari açık (GSYH’nin %’si) gibi önemli makroekonomik göstergeler arasındaki karşılıklı bağımlılığı göstermektedir. Tüm göstergeler, özel bir dereceli ölçek üzerinde temsil edilmektedir. Bu kavramı dünya ekonomilerine uygulayan çalışmalar olmasına karşın, Türkiye ekonomisi için bir çalışma bulunmamaktadır. Bu yönüyle çalışma literatürde önemli bir boşluğu doldurmayı hedeflemektedir. Bulgular, kamu politikalarının geliştirilmesine temel teşkil etmektedir. MSP modelinin ana bulguları, modelin Türkiye ekonomisinin analizi için uygulanabilir olduğunu kanıtlamaktadır. Bu model, özellikle işsizlik ve enflasyon süreci düzenlemeleri alanında kamu politikalarının etkinliğinin değerlendirilmesinde bir araç olarak kullanılabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İstikrar, Makroekonomik İstikrar Beşgeni, Türkiye Ekonomisi, İndeks Metodolojisi

THE STABILITY PENTAGON MODEL: MACRO-LEVEL APPLICATION TO THE TURKISH ECONOMY

Öz

The problem of instability of states affects the economies of countries. The main objective of any economy moving from a planned economy to a market economy is to halt economic decline, eliminate internal and external imbalances and ensure sustained economic growth. This requires an effective instrument that makes it possible to manage stability at different levels. In order to highlight common and fundamental differences in order to stabilise economies, the concept of the pentagon of macroeconomic stability is used, which allows to obtain a view on macroeconomic policies in the transition from one period to another. This concept has introduced a new understanding of the evaluation of the effectiveness of public policies. The applicability of the macroeconomic stability pentagon (MSP) has been investigated for the period 2002-2023 in order to analyse the stability of the policies implemented for the crisis in 2001 and the following two decades in the low-middle income Turkish economy. This benchmarking tool shows the interdependence between key macroeconomic indicators such as inflation and economic growth, unemployment, budget deficit (% of GDP), current account deficit (% of GDP). All indicators are represented on a specialised graduated scale. Although there are studies applying this concept to world economies, there is no study for the Turkish economy. In this respect, this study aims to fill an important gap in the literature. The findings provide a basis for the development of public policies. The main findings of the MSP model prove that the model is applicable for the analysis of the Turkish economy. This model can be used as a tool for assessing the effectiveness of public policies, especially in the field of unemployment and inflation process regulation.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Stabilization, Macroeconomic Stabilization Pentagon, Turkish Economy, Index Methodology

Kaynakça

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