Kurumlar ve İktisadi Gelişme: Bootstrap Panel Granger Nedensellik Testi

Yıl 2022, , 437 - 453, 30.12.2022

Nurten Derici Temel

https://doi.org/10.37093/ijsi.1167625

Öz

Bu çalışmada kurumlar ve iktisadi gelişme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi Bootstrap panel Granger nedensellik analizi kullanılarak test edilmektedir. Örneklem oluşturulurken Dünya Bankası Atlas metoduna göre belirlenen gelir sınıflandırması referans alınmış ve üst orta gelir sınıfında yer alan G20 ülkelerine odaklanılmıştır. Dünya nüfusundan, dünya GSYİH’sinden ve küresel ticaretten aldıkları pay bakımından dikkate değer olan bu ülkeler aynı zamanda iktisadi gelişmişlik ve kurumsal kapasite olarak belirli bir düzeye ulaşmış olan ülkelerdir. Çalışma 1996-2019 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Üç farklı kurum değişkeni ile oluşturulan modellerde nedensellik ilişkisinin yönünün hem kullanılan kurum değişkenine karşı duyarlı olduğu hem de ülkeden ülkeye farklılık gösterdiği ortaya konmuştur. Çalışmada elde edilen bulgular kurumlar ve iktisadi gelişme arasında çift yönlü nedenselliği desteklese de toplam vaka sayısına göre yapılan değerlendirmede kurumlardan iktisadi gelişmeye doğru nedenselliğin daha güçlü olduğu görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kurumlar, iktisadi gelişme, bootstrap panel Granger nedensellik

Institutions and Economic Development: A Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Test

Öz

In this study, the causality relationship between institutions and economic development was tested using bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis. The sample was created according to the World Bank Atlas method, focusing on the G20 countries in the upper-middle income class. These countries have reached a certain level in terms of economic development and institutional capacity in terms of having a relatively good and sustainable development performance among developing countries. These countries, which are remarkable in terms of their share in the world population, world GDP, and global trade, have also reached a certain level in terms of economic development and institutional capacity. The study covers the period 1996-2019. It was observed that the direction of the causality relationship is sensitive according to both the institution variable used and the country. Although the study findings support bidirectional causality between institutions and economic development, it was observed that causality from institutions to economic development is stronger according to the total number of cases.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Institutions, economic development, bootstrap panel Granger causality

Kaynakça

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