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Kurumlar ve İktisadi Gelişme: Bootstrap Panel Granger Nedensellik Testi

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 2, 437 - 453, 30.12.2022
https://doi.org/10.37093/ijsi.1167625

Öz

Bu çalışmada kurumlar ve iktisadi gelişme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi Bootstrap panel Granger nedensellik analizi kullanılarak test edilmektedir. Örneklem oluşturulurken Dünya Bankası Atlas metoduna göre belirlenen gelir sınıflandırması referans alınmış ve üst orta gelir sınıfında yer alan G20 ülkelerine odaklanılmıştır. Dünya nüfusundan, dünya GSYİH’sinden ve küresel ticaretten aldıkları pay bakımından dikkate değer olan bu ülkeler aynı zamanda iktisadi gelişmişlik ve kurumsal kapasite olarak belirli bir düzeye ulaşmış olan ülkelerdir. Çalışma 1996-2019 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Üç farklı kurum değişkeni ile oluşturulan modellerde nedensellik ilişkisinin yönünün hem kullanılan kurum değişkenine karşı duyarlı olduğu hem de ülkeden ülkeye farklılık gösterdiği ortaya konmuştur. Çalışmada elde edilen bulgular kurumlar ve iktisadi gelişme arasında çift yönlü nedenselliği desteklese de toplam vaka sayısına göre yapılan değerlendirmede kurumlardan iktisadi gelişmeye doğru nedenselliğin daha güçlü olduğu görülmüştür.

Kaynakça

  • Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., & Robinson, J. A. (2001). The colonial origins of comparative development: An empirical investigation. American Economic Review, 91(5), 1369–1401. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.5.1369
  • Aixalá, J., & Fabro, G. (2007). A model of growth augmented with institutions. Economic Affairs, 27(3), 71–74. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0270.2007.00758.x
  • Akıncı, M., Yüce, G., & Yılmaz, Ö. (2014). Ekonomik özgürlüklerin iktisadi büyüme üzerindeki etkileri: Bir panel veri analizi. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 14(2), 81–96. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ausbd/issue/15925/167473
  • Bergh, A., Mirkina, I., & Nilsson, T. (2014). Globalization and institutional quality – A panel data analysis. Oxford Development Studies, 42(3), 365–394. https://doi.org/10.1080/13600818.2014.884555
  • Bloom, D. E., Steven, D., & Weston, M. (2004). Governance matters: The role of governance in Asian economic development. World Economics, 5(4), 53–79.
  • Breitung, J. (2005). A parametric approach to the estimation of cointegration vectors in panel data. Econometric Reviews, 24(2), 151–173. https://doi.org/10.1081/ETC-200067895
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239–253. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297111
  • Chang, H.-J. (2011). Institutions and economic development: Theory, policy and history. Journal of Institutional Economics, 7(4), 473–498. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1744137410000378
  • Chong, A., & Calderón, C. (2000). Causality and feedback between institutional measures and economic growth. Economics and Politics, 12(1), 69–81. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0343.00069
  • Dawson, J. W. (2003). Causality in the freedom-growth relationship. European Journal of Political Economy, 19(3), 479–495. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0176-2680(03)00009-0
  • Dollar, D., & Kraay, A. (2003). Institutions, trade, and growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(1), 133–162. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(02)00206-4
  • Dumitrescu, E. -I., & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450–1460. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.014
  • Easterly, W., & Levine, R. (2003). Tropics, germs, and crops: How endowments influence economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(1), 3–39. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(02)00200-3
  • Farr, W. K., Lord, R. A., & Wolfenbarger, J. L. (1998). Economic freedom, political freedom, and economic well-being: A causality analysis. Cato Journal, 18(2), 247–262.
  • Glaeser, E. L., La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., & Shleifer, A. (2004). Do institutions cause growth? Journal of Economic Growth, 9(3), 271–303. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:JOEG.0000038933.16398.ed
  • Göcen, S. (2021). Gelişen ülkelerde ekonomik özgürlük ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi : Bootstrap panel Granger nedensellik testi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 35(3), 865–883. https://doi.org/10.16951/atauniiibd.797849
  • Haggard, S., & Tiede, L. (2011). The rule of law and economic growth: Where are we? World Development, 39(5), 673–685. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2010.10.007
  • Hall, R. E., & Jones, C. I. (1999). Why do some countries produce so much more output per worker than others? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114(1), 83–116. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355399555954
  • Hurlin, C. (2004). Testing Granger causality in heterogenous panel data models with fixed coefficients. Université d’Orléans. https://www.afse.fr/global/gene/link.php?doc_id=139&fg=1
  • Justesen, M. K. (2008). The effect of economic freedom on growth revisited: New evidence on causality from a panel of countries 1970–1999. European Journal of Political Economy, 24(3), 642–660. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2008.06.003
  • Kar, M., Nazlıoğlu, Ş., & Ağır, H. (2011). Financial development and economic growth nexus in the MENA countries: Bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis. Economic Modelling, 28(1–2), 685–693. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.05.015
  • Kar, S., Roy, A., & Sen, K. (2019). The double trap: Institutions and economic development. Economic Modelling, 76, 243–259. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.08.002
  • Kaufmann, D., & Kraay, A. (2003). Governance and growth: Causality which way ? -- Evidence for the World, in brief. World Bank Institute. https://web.worldbank.org/archive/website00818/WEB/PDF/GROWTH-3.PDF
  • Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M. (2010). The worldwide governance indicators: Methodology and analytical issues (Policy Research Working Paper, No. 5430). The World Bank. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/630421468336563314/pdf/WPS5430.pdf
  • Knack, S., & Keefer, P. (1995). Institutions and economic performance: Cross-Country tests using alternative institutional measures. Economics & Politics, 7(3), 207–227. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0343.1995.tb00111.x
  • Koçak, E., & Uzay, N. (2018). Demokrasi, ekonomik özgürlükler ve ekonomik büyüme: Kurumların rolü üzerine bir araştırma. Sosyoekonomi, 26(36), 81–102. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2018.02.05
  • Kónya, L. (2006). Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach. Economic Modelling, 23(6), 978–992. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2006.04.008
  • Kunčič, A. (2014). Institutional quality dataset. Journal of Institutional Economics, 10(1), 135–161. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1744137413000192
  • Law, S. H., Lim, T. C., & Ismail, N. W. (2013). Institutions and economic development: A Granger causality analysis of panel data evidence. Economic Systems, 37(4), 610–624. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2013.05.005
  • Lee, K., & Kim, B. -Y. (2009). Both institutions and policies matter but differently for different income groups of countries: Determinants of long-run economic growth revisited. World Development, 37(3), 533–549. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2008.07.004
  • Lipset, S. M. (1959). Some social requisites of democracy: Economic development and political legitimacy. American Political Science Review, 53(1), 69–105. https://doi.org/10.2307/1951731
  • Mahmood, K., & Azid, T. (2011). Economic freedom verses economic growth: Cross countries analysis in the form of ARDL approch. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 1(1), 14–25. https://archive.aessweb.com/index.php/5002/article/view/707/1156
  • Matthews, R. C. O. (1986). The economics of institutions and the sources of growth. The Economic Journal, 96(384), 903–918. https://doi.org/10.2307/2233164
  • Mauro, P. (1995). Corruption and growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(3), 681–712. https://doi.org/10.2307/2946696
  • Menyah, K., Nazlioglu, S., & Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2014). Financial development, trade openness and economic growth in African countries: New insights from a panel causality approach. Economic Modelling, 37, 386–394. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.11.044
  • North, D. C. (1991). Institutions. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 5(1), 97-112. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.5.1.97
  • North, D. C., & Thomas, R. P. (1973). The rise of the western world: A new economic history. Cambridge University Press.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels (Discussion Paper No. 1240). IZA Institute of Labor Economics. https://docs.iza.org/dp1240.pdf
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2006). Estimation and inference in large heterogeneous panels with a multifactor error structure. Econometrica, 74(4), 967–1012. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2006.00692.x
  • Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105–127. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1368-423X.2007.00227.x
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50–93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010
  • Rodrik, D., Subramanian, A., & Trebbi, F. (2002). Institutions rule: The primacy of institutions over geography and integration in economic development (NBER Working Paper, No. 9305). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w9305/w9305.pdf
  • Rodrik, D., Subramanian, A., & Trebbi, F. (2004). Institutions rule: The primacy of institutions over geography and integration in economic development. Journal of Economic Growth, 9(2), 131–165. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:JOEG.0000031425.72248.85
  • Ros, J. (2013). Rethinking economic development, growth & institutions. Oxford University Press.
  • Scully, G. W. (1988). The institutional framework and economic development. Journal of Political Economy, 96(3), 652–662. https://doi.org/10.1086/261555
  • Swamy, P. A. V. B. (1970). Efficient inference in a random coefficient regression model. Econometrica, 38(2), 311–323. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913012
  • Vega-Gordillo, M., & Alvarez-Arce, J. L. (2003). Economic growth and freedom: A causality study. Cato Journal, 23(2), 199–215. https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/cato-journal/2003/11/cj23n2-4.pdf
  • Vianna, A. C., & Mollick, A. V. (2018). Institutions: Key variable for economic development in Latin America. Journal of Economics and Business, 96, 42–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JECONBUS.2017.12.002

Institutions and Economic Development: A Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Test

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 2, 437 - 453, 30.12.2022
https://doi.org/10.37093/ijsi.1167625

Öz

In this study, the causality relationship between institutions and economic development was tested using bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis. The sample was created according to the World Bank Atlas method, focusing on the G20 countries in the upper-middle income class. These countries have reached a certain level in terms of economic development and institutional capacity in terms of having a relatively good and sustainable development performance among developing countries. These countries, which are remarkable in terms of their share in the world population, world GDP, and global trade, have also reached a certain level in terms of economic development and institutional capacity. The study covers the period 1996-2019. It was observed that the direction of the causality relationship is sensitive according to both the institution variable used and the country. Although the study findings support bidirectional causality between institutions and economic development, it was observed that causality from institutions to economic development is stronger according to the total number of cases.

Kaynakça

  • Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., & Robinson, J. A. (2001). The colonial origins of comparative development: An empirical investigation. American Economic Review, 91(5), 1369–1401. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.5.1369
  • Aixalá, J., & Fabro, G. (2007). A model of growth augmented with institutions. Economic Affairs, 27(3), 71–74. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0270.2007.00758.x
  • Akıncı, M., Yüce, G., & Yılmaz, Ö. (2014). Ekonomik özgürlüklerin iktisadi büyüme üzerindeki etkileri: Bir panel veri analizi. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 14(2), 81–96. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ausbd/issue/15925/167473
  • Bergh, A., Mirkina, I., & Nilsson, T. (2014). Globalization and institutional quality – A panel data analysis. Oxford Development Studies, 42(3), 365–394. https://doi.org/10.1080/13600818.2014.884555
  • Bloom, D. E., Steven, D., & Weston, M. (2004). Governance matters: The role of governance in Asian economic development. World Economics, 5(4), 53–79.
  • Breitung, J. (2005). A parametric approach to the estimation of cointegration vectors in panel data. Econometric Reviews, 24(2), 151–173. https://doi.org/10.1081/ETC-200067895
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239–253. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297111
  • Chang, H.-J. (2011). Institutions and economic development: Theory, policy and history. Journal of Institutional Economics, 7(4), 473–498. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1744137410000378
  • Chong, A., & Calderón, C. (2000). Causality and feedback between institutional measures and economic growth. Economics and Politics, 12(1), 69–81. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0343.00069
  • Dawson, J. W. (2003). Causality in the freedom-growth relationship. European Journal of Political Economy, 19(3), 479–495. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0176-2680(03)00009-0
  • Dollar, D., & Kraay, A. (2003). Institutions, trade, and growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(1), 133–162. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(02)00206-4
  • Dumitrescu, E. -I., & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450–1460. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.014
  • Easterly, W., & Levine, R. (2003). Tropics, germs, and crops: How endowments influence economic development. Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(1), 3–39. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(02)00200-3
  • Farr, W. K., Lord, R. A., & Wolfenbarger, J. L. (1998). Economic freedom, political freedom, and economic well-being: A causality analysis. Cato Journal, 18(2), 247–262.
  • Glaeser, E. L., La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., & Shleifer, A. (2004). Do institutions cause growth? Journal of Economic Growth, 9(3), 271–303. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:JOEG.0000038933.16398.ed
  • Göcen, S. (2021). Gelişen ülkelerde ekonomik özgürlük ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi : Bootstrap panel Granger nedensellik testi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 35(3), 865–883. https://doi.org/10.16951/atauniiibd.797849
  • Haggard, S., & Tiede, L. (2011). The rule of law and economic growth: Where are we? World Development, 39(5), 673–685. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2010.10.007
  • Hall, R. E., & Jones, C. I. (1999). Why do some countries produce so much more output per worker than others? The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114(1), 83–116. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355399555954
  • Hurlin, C. (2004). Testing Granger causality in heterogenous panel data models with fixed coefficients. Université d’Orléans. https://www.afse.fr/global/gene/link.php?doc_id=139&fg=1
  • Justesen, M. K. (2008). The effect of economic freedom on growth revisited: New evidence on causality from a panel of countries 1970–1999. European Journal of Political Economy, 24(3), 642–660. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2008.06.003
  • Kar, M., Nazlıoğlu, Ş., & Ağır, H. (2011). Financial development and economic growth nexus in the MENA countries: Bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis. Economic Modelling, 28(1–2), 685–693. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.05.015
  • Kar, S., Roy, A., & Sen, K. (2019). The double trap: Institutions and economic development. Economic Modelling, 76, 243–259. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.08.002
  • Kaufmann, D., & Kraay, A. (2003). Governance and growth: Causality which way ? -- Evidence for the World, in brief. World Bank Institute. https://web.worldbank.org/archive/website00818/WEB/PDF/GROWTH-3.PDF
  • Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M. (2010). The worldwide governance indicators: Methodology and analytical issues (Policy Research Working Paper, No. 5430). The World Bank. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/630421468336563314/pdf/WPS5430.pdf
  • Knack, S., & Keefer, P. (1995). Institutions and economic performance: Cross-Country tests using alternative institutional measures. Economics & Politics, 7(3), 207–227. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0343.1995.tb00111.x
  • Koçak, E., & Uzay, N. (2018). Demokrasi, ekonomik özgürlükler ve ekonomik büyüme: Kurumların rolü üzerine bir araştırma. Sosyoekonomi, 26(36), 81–102. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2018.02.05
  • Kónya, L. (2006). Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach. Economic Modelling, 23(6), 978–992. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2006.04.008
  • Kunčič, A. (2014). Institutional quality dataset. Journal of Institutional Economics, 10(1), 135–161. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1744137413000192
  • Law, S. H., Lim, T. C., & Ismail, N. W. (2013). Institutions and economic development: A Granger causality analysis of panel data evidence. Economic Systems, 37(4), 610–624. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2013.05.005
  • Lee, K., & Kim, B. -Y. (2009). Both institutions and policies matter but differently for different income groups of countries: Determinants of long-run economic growth revisited. World Development, 37(3), 533–549. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2008.07.004
  • Lipset, S. M. (1959). Some social requisites of democracy: Economic development and political legitimacy. American Political Science Review, 53(1), 69–105. https://doi.org/10.2307/1951731
  • Mahmood, K., & Azid, T. (2011). Economic freedom verses economic growth: Cross countries analysis in the form of ARDL approch. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 1(1), 14–25. https://archive.aessweb.com/index.php/5002/article/view/707/1156
  • Matthews, R. C. O. (1986). The economics of institutions and the sources of growth. The Economic Journal, 96(384), 903–918. https://doi.org/10.2307/2233164
  • Mauro, P. (1995). Corruption and growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(3), 681–712. https://doi.org/10.2307/2946696
  • Menyah, K., Nazlioglu, S., & Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2014). Financial development, trade openness and economic growth in African countries: New insights from a panel causality approach. Economic Modelling, 37, 386–394. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.11.044
  • North, D. C. (1991). Institutions. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 5(1), 97-112. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.5.1.97
  • North, D. C., & Thomas, R. P. (1973). The rise of the western world: A new economic history. Cambridge University Press.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels (Discussion Paper No. 1240). IZA Institute of Labor Economics. https://docs.iza.org/dp1240.pdf
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2006). Estimation and inference in large heterogeneous panels with a multifactor error structure. Econometrica, 74(4), 967–1012. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2006.00692.x
  • Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105–127. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1368-423X.2007.00227.x
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50–93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.05.010
  • Rodrik, D., Subramanian, A., & Trebbi, F. (2002). Institutions rule: The primacy of institutions over geography and integration in economic development (NBER Working Paper, No. 9305). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w9305/w9305.pdf
  • Rodrik, D., Subramanian, A., & Trebbi, F. (2004). Institutions rule: The primacy of institutions over geography and integration in economic development. Journal of Economic Growth, 9(2), 131–165. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:JOEG.0000031425.72248.85
  • Ros, J. (2013). Rethinking economic development, growth & institutions. Oxford University Press.
  • Scully, G. W. (1988). The institutional framework and economic development. Journal of Political Economy, 96(3), 652–662. https://doi.org/10.1086/261555
  • Swamy, P. A. V. B. (1970). Efficient inference in a random coefficient regression model. Econometrica, 38(2), 311–323. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913012
  • Vega-Gordillo, M., & Alvarez-Arce, J. L. (2003). Economic growth and freedom: A causality study. Cato Journal, 23(2), 199–215. https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/serials/files/cato-journal/2003/11/cj23n2-4.pdf
  • Vianna, A. C., & Mollick, A. V. (2018). Institutions: Key variable for economic development in Latin America. Journal of Economics and Business, 96, 42–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/J.JECONBUS.2017.12.002
Toplam 48 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Nurten Derici Temel 0000-0001-8452-1230

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Aralık 2022
Gönderilme Tarihi 27 Ağustos 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 15 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Derici Temel, N. (2022). Kurumlar ve İktisadi Gelişme: Bootstrap Panel Granger Nedensellik Testi. International Journal of Social Inquiry, 15(2), 437-453. https://doi.org/10.37093/ijsi.1167625

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