Rusya Federasyonu’nun Güvenlik Strateji Belgeleri Bağlamında Kırım İlhakı’nın Tarihsel-Sembolik ve Askeri-Jeopolitik Analizi

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 2, 415 - 436, 30.12.2022

Murat Jane

https://doi.org/10.37093/ijsi.1173414

Cited By: 1

Öz

Güvenlik strateji belgeleri bir devletin tehdit algıları, çıkarları ve olası dış politika hamleleri hakkındaki temel kaynaklardır. Söz konusu güvenlik strateji belgeleri arasında ulusal güvenlik konsepti, dış politika konsepti ve askeri doktrinler yer almaktadır. Bu belgeler ışığında bir devletin bölgesel ve küresel gelişmelere nasıl bir dış politik reaksiyon verebileceği net olarak öngörülebilmektedir. Bu bağlamda Rusya Federasyonu (RF)’nun post-Sovyet coğrafyaya yönelik politikalarının ve Avro-Atlantik Blok (NATO ve Avrupa Birliği-AB) ile ilişkilerinin anahatlarını söz konusu belgelerde görebilmek mümkündür. Ukrayna da RF-Avro-Atlantik Blok arasındaki ilişkileri belirleyen faktörler arasında yer almıştır. Bu çerçevede RF-Ukrayna ilişkileri genellikle Avro-Atlantik Blok’un doğu genişlemesi bağlamında değerlendirilmektedir. Fakat doğu genişlemesinin yanı sıra iki devlet arasındaki tarihsel-sembolik ve askeri-jeopolitik ilişkiler de dikkate alınmalıdır. Başka bir ifadeyle Kırım’ın ilhakı sadece güncel jeopolitik gerçekliklere indirgenmemeli, Ukrayna’nın ve Kırım’ın Rus tarih yazımındaki yeri de göz önünde bulundurulmalıdır. Zira RF’nin Ukrayna algısı işgal sürecinde belirleyici olmuştur. Bu çerçevede çalışmada Kırım’ın ilhakı, RF’nin güvenlik strateji belgeleri bağlamında, jeopolitik ve tarihsel gelişmeler ışığında analiz edilecektir. Hiç şüphesiz bu analiz bizce Şubat 2022 de başlayan RF-Ukrayna Savaşı’nın irdelenmesinde de yol gösterici olacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Rusya Federasyonu, Ukrayna, NATO genişlemesi, askeri doktrin, güvenlik strateji belgeleri

Historical-Symbolic and Military-Geopolitical Analysis of Crimea’s Annexation in the Context of the Security Strategy Documents of the Russian Federation

Öz

Security strategy documents are the main sources of a state’s threat perceptions, interests, and possible foreign policy steps. These documents include national security concepts, foreign policy concepts and military doctrines. In light of these documents, it is also possible to clearly predict how a state can respond to regional and global developments. In this context, these documents highlight the outlines of the policies of the Russian Federation (RF) toward post-Soviet geography and its relations with the Euro-Atlantic Bloc (NATO and the European Union). Ukraine is also one of the factors determining relations between the RF and the Euro-Atlantic Bloc. Within this frame, relations between the RF and Ukraine are generally assessed in the context of the eastward enlargement of the Euro-Atlantic Bloc. However, in addition to this enlargement, historical-symbolic and military-geopolitical relations between the two states should also be considered. In other words, the annexation of Crimea should be reduced not only to current geopolitical realities but also to the place of Ukraine and Crimea in Russian historiography. After all, the RF’s perception of Ukraine was crucial to the occupation process. Within this framework, the annexation of Crimea will be analyzed in light of geopolitical and historical developments and the context of the RF’s security strategy documents. This analysis will undoubtedly guide the study of the RF-Ukraine War that began in February 2022.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Russian Federation, Ukraine, NATO expansion, military doctrine, security strategy documents

Kaynakça

• Akad, T. (2003). Strateji üzerine. Kastaş Yayınları.
• Armaoğlu, F. (2014). 20. yüzyıl siyasi tarihi 1914-1995. Timaş Yayınları.
• Brannon, R. (2009). Russian civil-military relations. Ashgate Publishing Limited.
• Brzezinski, Z. (1994). The premature partnership. Foreign Affairs, 73(2), 67–82.
• Brzezinski, Z. (2005). Büyük satranç tahtası: Amerika’nın küresel üstünlüğü ve bunun jeopolitik gereklilikleri. (Y. Türedi, Çev.). İnkılap Yayınları (Orijinal çalışmanın yayımlanma tarihi 1997).
• Burchill, S. (2005). The national interest in international relations theory. Palgrave Macmillan.
• Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. (2010, February 05). The military doctrine of the Russian Federation. https://carnegieendowment.org/files/2010russia_military_doctrine.pdf
• Chapman, B. (2009). Military doctrine: A reference book. ABC CLIO, LLC.
• Clinton, W. (1986). The national interest: Normative foundations. The Review of Politics, 48(4), 495–519. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0034670500039656
• Cornell, S., & Jonsson, A. (2008). Expanding the European area of stability and democracy to the wider Black Sea region. In D. Hamilton & G. Mangott (Eds.), The wider Black Sea region in the 21st century: Strategic, economic and energy perspectives (pp. 225–250). Center for Transatlantic Relations. https://www.ceps.eu/download/publication/?id=5960&pdf=1672.pdf
• D’Anieri, P. (2019). Ukraine and Russia: From civilized divorce to uncivil war. University of California.
• Dağ, A. E. (2009). Uluslararası ilişkiler ve diplomasi sözlüğü. Ağaç Kitabevi Yayınları.
• Devroy, A. & Shapiro, M. (1993, April 05). Yeltsin gets $ 1.6 billion in U.S. aid. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/inatl/longterm/summit/archive/april93.htm
• Emerson, M. (2008). The EU’s new Black Sea policy. In D. Hamilton & G. Mangott (Eds.), The wider Black Sea region in the 21st century: Strategic, economic and energy perspectives (pp. 253–276). Center for Transatlantic Relations. https://www.ceps.eu/download/publication/?id=5960&pdf=1672.pdf
• Federation of American Scientists. (1993, November 02). The basic provisions of the military doctrine of the Russian Federation. https://nuke.fas.org/guide/russia/doctrine/russia-mil-doc.html
• Federation of American Scientists. (1997, December 26). Russian Federation national security Blueprint. https://nuke.fas.org/guide/russia/doctrine/blueprint.html
• Federation of American Scientists. (2000, January 18). National security concept of the Russian Federation. https://nuke.fas.org/guide/russia/doctrine/gazeta012400.htm
• Frost, D. (2000, March 05). BBC breakfast with frost interview: Vladimir Putin [Video Transcript]. http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/audio_video/programmes/breakfast_with_frost/transcripts/putin5.mar.txt
• Gaber, Y. (2013). Black Sea regional security after 9/11. In G. S. Bozkurt (Ed.), Blue Black Sea new dimensions of history, security, strategy, energy and economy (pp. 120–129). Cambridge Scholars Publishing.
• Haas, M. de (2004). Russian security and air power 1992-2002. Frank Cass.
• Haas, M. de (2011). Russia’s military doctrine development (2000-10). In S. J. Blank (Ed.), Russian military politics and Russia’s 2010 defense doctrine (pp. 1–61). The Strategic Studies Institute.
• Haran, O. (2014). Ukraine’s long road to European integration (Eurasia Policy Memo No. 311). https://www.ponarseurasia.org/ukraine-s-long-road-to-european-integration
• Haran, O., & Burkovsky, P. (2009). War in Georgia and the Ukrainian reaction. Russian Politics & Law, 47(3), 84–88. https://doi.org/10.2753/RUP1061-1940470308
• Holley, I. B. (2004). Technology and military doctrine: Essays on a challenging relationship. Air University Press.
• Horrell, S. (2016, October). A NATO strategy for security in the Black Sea Region (Issue Brief). Atlantic Council. http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep03475
• Jane, M. (2020). Rusya Federasyonu’nun Trans-Kafkasya politikasının analizi: Süreklilik mi dönüşüm mü? Dora Yayıncılık.
• Jane, M. (2021). Azak Denizi ve Kırım’ın önemi: Türkiye ve Rusya Federasyonu’nun politikalarının karşılaştırmalı analizi (1991-2021). İçinde E. H. Kılıçbeyli (Der.), 100. yılında Türkiye-Rusya ilişkileri: Çok taraflı gelişmeler, karşılıklı etkileşimler (ss. 93–115). Nika Yayınevi.
• Kamath, P. M. (1998). US‐China relations under the Clinton administration: Comprehensive engagement or the cold war again? Strategic Analysis, 22(5), 691–709. https://doi.org/10.1080/09700169808458846
• Kappeler, A. (2003). ‘Great Russians’ and ‘Little Russians’: Russian-Ukranian relations and perceptions in historical perspective. The Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies, University of Washington. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/35359
• Karaca, R. K. (2020). 19. yüzyılda uluslararası sisteme yeni aktörlerin katılmasının diplomasinin gelişimine etkileri. İçinde B. Özdal & R. K. Karaca (Ed.), Diplomasi tarihi-1 (ss. 411–456). Dora Yayınları.
• Kaya, S. (2011). Rus dış politikasında batı. Dora Yayınları.
• Kubicek, P. (1999-2000). Russian foreign policy and the West. Political Science Quarterly, 114(4), 547–568.
• Kuimova, A., & Wezeman S. T. (2018, December). Russia and Black Sea Security (SIPRI Background Paper). Stockholm International Peace Research Institute [SIPRI]. https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2018-12/bp_1812_black_sea_russia_0.pdf
• Kuzio, T. (2000). Geopolitical pluralism in the CIS: The emergence of GUUAM. European Security, 9(2), 81–114. https://doi.org/10.1080/09662830008407453
• Kuzio, T. (2006). National identity and history writing in Ukraine. Nationalities Papers, 34(4), 407–427. https://doi.org/10.1080/00905990600842080
• Kuzio, T. (2015). Ukraine: Democratization, corruption, and the new Russian imperialism. Praeger.
• Kuzio, T. (2022). Russian nationalism and the Russian-Ukranian war: Autocracy-ortodoxy-nationality. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003191438
• Larrabee, F. S. (2008). NATO and Black Sea security. In D. Hamilton & G. Mangott (Eds.), The wider Black Sea region in the 21st century: Strategic, economic and energy perspectives (pp. 277–292). Center for Transatlantic Relations. https://www.ceps.eu/download/publication/?id=5960&pdf=1672.pdf
• Lukyanov, F. (2016). Putin’s foreign policy: The quest to restore Russia’s rightful place. Foreign Affairs, 95(3), 30–37.
• Mangott, G., & Westphal, K. (2008). The relevance of the wider Black Sea region to EU and Russian energy issues. In D. Hamilton & G. Mangott (Eds.), The wider Black Sea region in the 21st century: Strategic, economic and energy perspectives (pp. 147–176). Center for Transatlantic Relations. https://www.ceps.eu/download/publication/?id=5960&pdf=1672.pdf
• Minorities at Risk Project. (2004). Chronology for Crimean Russians in Ukraine. Refworld. https://www.refworld.org/docid/469f38ec2.html
• Ministry of Defence Republic of Latvia. (n.d.). The national security concept (informative section). https://www.mod.gov.lv/sites/mod/files/document/NDK_ENG_final.pdf
• Ogarkova, T. (2018, March 12). The truth behind Ukraine’s language policy. UkraineAlert. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/the-truth-behind-ukraine-s-language-policy
• Özdal, B. (2020). Diplomasi. İçinde B. Özdal & R. K. Karaca (Ed.), Diplomasi Tarihi-1 (ss. 23–91). Dora Yayınları.
• Özdal, B. (2021). 1. Dünya Savaşı’nın diplomasinin gelişimine etkileri. İçinde B. Özdal & R. K. Karaca (Ed.), Diplomasi tarihi-2 (ss. 1–78). Dora Yayınları.
• Posen, B. R. (1984). The sources of military doctrine: France, Britain, and Germany between the world wars. Cornell University Press.
• President of the Russian Federation. (2009, May 12). Russia's national security strategy to 2020 [Unofficial Translation]. ETH Zurich Center for Security Studies. https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/154915/Russia's%20National%20Security%20Strategy%20to%202020%20-%20Rustrans.pdf
• Prontera, A. (2017). The new politics of energy security in the European Union and beyond: States, markets, institutions. Routledge.
• Purtaş, F. (2005). Rusya Federasyonu ekseninde Bağımsız Devletler Topluluğu. Platin Yayınevi.
• Putin, V. (2007, February 10). Speech and the following discussion at the Munich Conference on security policy. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/24034
• Putin, V. (2013, July 27). Orthodox-Slavic values: The foundation of Ukraine’s civilisational choice conference. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/18961
• Putin, V. (2021, July 12). On the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians. President of Russia. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181
• Putin, V. (2022, February 22). Talks with President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev. http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67830
• Sakwa, R. (2016). Frontline Ukraine: Crisis in the borderlands. I. B. Tauris.
• Sasse, G. (2007). The Crimea question: Identity, transition, and conflict. Harvard University Press.
• Solchanyk, R. (1993). Russia, Ukraine, and the imperial legacy. Post-Soviet Affairs, 9(4), 337–365. https://doi.org/10.1080/1060586X.1993.10641374
• Sönmezoğlu, F. (Der.) (2005). Dış politika. İçinde Uluslararası ilişkiler sözlüğü (ss. 222-223). Der Yayınları.
• Stone, D. R. (2006). A military history of Russia: From Ivan the terrible to the war in Chechnya. Praeger Security International.
• Toal, G. (2017). Near abroad: Putin, the West and the contest over Ukraine and the caucasus. Oxford University Press.
• Tolz, V. (2002). Rethinking Russian–Ukrainian relations: A new trend in nation-building in post-communist Russia? Nations and Nationalism, 8(2), 235–253. https://doi.org/10.1111/1469-8219.00048
• Trenin, D. (2008). Russia’s perspective on the wider Black Sea region. In D. Hamilton & G. Mangott (Eds.), The wider Black Sea region in the 21st century: Strategic, economic and energy perspectives (pp. 103–117). Center for Transatlantic Relations. https://www.ceps.eu/download/publication/?id=5960&pdf=1672.pdf
• Tsygankov, A. P. (2010). Russia’s foreign policy: Change and continuity in national identity (2nd ed.). Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc.
• Yıldırım, Y. (2020). Putin dönemi Rus dış ve güvenlik politikasında bir müdahalecilik örneği olarak Kırım’ın ilhakı. Nobel Yayınları.