WATER CONFLICTS AND THE SPATIOTEMPORAL CHANGES IN LAND USE, IRRIGATION, AND DROUGHT IN NORTHEAST SYRIA WITH FUTURE ESTIMATIONS

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 4, 5 - 36, 15.01.2022

Fulya Aydın-kandemir , Dursun Yıldız

Öz

As a result of climate change, it is clear to provide instability for conflict zones in the coming years. Moreover, climate change has potential socio-economic consequences in addition to environmental impacts. For example, decreasing water resources and rural land usage forces people to migrate from rural to urban areas due to low productivity in agriculture and animal husbandry, rising food prices, and decreasing wealth levels. In this study, we evaluate climate change impacts on northeast Syria, a wetter climate zone in the country. Within the scope of the study, in addition to addressing the effects of climate change on the scale of drought, we determined to what extent land-use changes and agricultural patterns throughout the region affect water use (mainly groundwater). Revealing the possible relations between the previous regional conflicts and the changes in land use, drought, and water use will be beneficial in terms of evaluating the possible threats in the future. Obviously, the changes in land use, the increase in irrigated agricultural areas, and the intensive groundwater use make the situation worse. Drought has exacerbated these problems. It is undeniable that the effects of climate change are one of the most pressing political and economic challenges in the region.
Therefore, it is worthwhile to evaluate the potential future threat of the spread of conflicts that were experienced before. It is undeniable that climate change effects seem to be one of the region's most pressing political and economic challenges. Therefore, the entire Syria and the northeast region require more attention to adapt climate change effects on water resources to peace and security.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Syria, Northeast Syria, drought, irrigation, climate change, water security, hydropolitics, Geographic Information Systems

Kaynakça

• ACAPS (2020). Syria Conflict Overview. Accessed at https://www.acaps.org/country/syria/crisis/conflict.
• Albrecht, E., Schmidt, M., Mißler-Behr, M., & Spyra, S. P. (2014). Implementing Adaptation Strategies by Legal, Economic and Planning Instruments on Climate Change vol 4. Springer.
• Amery, H. A. (2020). Malthus in the Middle East: Scarcity induced water conflicts. (Nile and Euphrates; Water and food as weapons). In book: Water and Conflict in the Middle East. Hurst & Company, London.
• Aqueduct (2015). Aqueduct Water Stress Projections: Decadal Projections of Water Supply and Demand Using CMIP5 GCMs. In M. Luck, M. Landis, & F. Gassert (Eds). World Resources Institute.
• AQUASTAT-FAO (2017). AQUASTAT - FAO's Global Information System on Water and Agriculture. http://www.fao.org/aquastat/en/geospatial-information/global-maps-irrigated-areas/map-quality. Accessed 24 September 2021.
• Baba, A., Ruwad, AL Ruwad, AL. K., & Yazdani, H. (2021). Groundwater resources and quality in Syria. Groundwater for Sustainable Development 14, 100617.
• Begueria, S., Latorre, B., Reig, F., & Vicente-Serrano, S. M. (2021). Global SPEI database. https://spei.csic.es/database.html.
• Copernicus Climate Change Service (2021). [Dataset]. Copernicus Climate Change Service’s Land cover maps (2000 to 2020). https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/satellite-land-cover?tab=doc.
• ESA (2017). Climate Change Initiative - Land Cover led by UCLouvain.
• Fanack.com (2019). Water Resources in Syria. https://water.fanack.com/syria/water-resources/.
• FAO (2012). The Syrian Arab Republic Joint Rapid Food Security Needs Assessment (JRFSNA). FAO Rep., 26 pp. [Available online at http://www.fao.org/giews/english/otherpub/JRFSNA_Syrian2012.pdf.]
• FAO (2018). Special Report. In: FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission to the Syrian Arab Republic, vol. 51p. Food And Agriculture Organization Of The United Nations World Food Programme, Rome.
• Femia, F., & Werrell, C. (2013). Syria: Climate change, drought, and social unrest. The Center for Climate and Security. [Available online at http://climateandsecurity.org/2012/02/29/syria-climate-change-drought-and-social-unrest/].
• IFAD (2010). Syrian Arab Republic: Thematic study on land reclamation through defrocking. International Fund for Agricultural Development. Rome, Italy.
• IHP-UNESCO (2021). [Dataset]. http://ihp-wins.unesco.org/maps/new.
• GDO (2021). Analytical Report Global Drought Observatory: http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/gdo 4 Drought in Syria and Iraq – April 2021 JRC Global Drought Observatory (GDO) of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS).
• Gleick, P.H. (2014). Water, drought, climate change, and conflict in Syria Weather. Climate, and Society, 6, 331-340.
• Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) (2005). Global Agricultural Land Use Data for Integrated Assessment Modeling, in Human-Induced Climate Change: An Interdisciplinary Assessment. In: N. T. Ramankutty, H. Hertel, L. Lee, & S. K. Rose.
• Graham, B., Muawia, B., Al-Maleh, A. K., & Sawaf, T. (2001). Tectonic and Geologic Evolution of Syria. GeoArabia, 6(4).
• Kelley, C. P., Mohtadi, S., Cane, M. A., Seager, R., & Kushnir, Y. (2013). Climate Change and Political Instability in Syria. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2013, abstract id. GC13A-1047.
• Lopez-Moreno, J. I., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Zabalza, J., Begueria, S., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Azorin-Molina, C., & Moran-Tejeda, E. (2013). Hydrological response to climate variability at different time scales A study in the Ebro basin. Journal of Hydrology, 477, 175-188.
• Mathbout, S., Lopez-Bustins, J. A., Martin-Vide, J., Bech, J., & Rodrigo, F. S. (2018). Spatial and temporal analysis of drought variability at several time scales in Syria during 1961– 2012. Atmospheric Research, 200, 153-168.
• Mhanna, W. (2013). Syria’s climate crisis. [Available online at http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2013/12/syrian-drought-and-politics.html#].
• Mohtadi, S. (2013). Climate change and the Syrian uprising. [Available online at http://thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/climate-change-and-the-syrian-uprising].
• Mourad, K. A., & Berndtsson, R. (2012). Water status in the Syrian water basins. Open journal of modern hydrology, 2, 15, 01.
• NASA Grace (2021). [Dataset]. Groundwater and Soil Moisture Conditions from GRACE-FO Data Assimilation for the Contiguous U.S. and Global Land. https://nasagrace.unl.edu/Default.aspx.
• Salman, M., & Mualla, W. (2004). The utilization of water resources for agriculture in Syria: analysis of the current situation and future challenges. In: International Seminar on Nuclear War and Planetary Emergencies, pp. 263–274.
• Siebert, S., Henrich, V., Frenken, K., & Burke, J. (2013). Global Map of Irrigation Areas version 5. Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-University, Bonn, Germany / Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Rome, Italy: FAO.
• Somi, G., Zein, A., Dawood, M., & Sayyed-Hassan, A., (2002). Progress Report on the Transformation to Modern Irrigation Methods until the End of 2001. Internal Report, MAAR (Ministry of Agriculture and Agrarian Reforms). Syria (in Arabic).
• SPEI (2021). [Dataset]. SPEI Global Drought Monitor. https://spei.csic.es/map/maps.html.
• UNOCHA (2019). Northeast Syria – As half a million people gradually regain access to safe water – the number of displaced people nears 180,000. Press release, 22 October 2019. Accessed at https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/northeast-syria-half-millionpeople- gradually-regain-access-safe-water.
• Ülker, D., Erguven, O., & Gazioglu, C. (2018). Socio-economic impacts in a Changing Climate: Case Study Syria. International Journal of Environment and Geoinformatics, 5(1), 84-93.
• Varela-Ortega, C., & Sagardoy, J.A. (2002). Analysis of irrigation water policies in Syria: Current developments and future options. Proceedings of Irrigation Water Policies: Micro and Macro Considerations Conference, Agadir, Morocco, June.
• Wada, Y., Beek, L., & Bierkens, M.F. (2012). Nonsustainable groundwater sustaining irrigation: a global assessment. Water Resources Research, 48 (6).
• Worth, R. F. (2010). Earth is parched where Syrian farms thrived. New York Times, 13 October, New York ed., A1.
• Zwijnenburg, W., Nahas, N., & Vasquez, R. J. (2021). War, Waste, and Polluted Pastures an Explorative Environmental Study of the Impact of the Conflict in north-east Syria. Development and Peace CARITAS CANADA.
• Yılmaz, M. L., & Peker, H. S. (2013). A Possible Jeopardy of Water Resources in Terms of Turkey's Economic and Political Context: Water Conflicts [In Turkish]. Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 3(1), 57-74.