VERGİ YÜKÜNÜN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME HIZI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE’DEKİ İLLER ÖRNEKLEMİNDE AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ (2005-2014)

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 5, 37 - 55, 13.02.2018

Ferdi Çelikay

https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.329276

Cited By: 2

Öz

Bu çalışmada vergi
yükü ile ekonomik büyüme hızı arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönemli ilişkiler
Türkiye’de iller örnekleminde incelenmektir. Bu bağlamda 2005 ile 2014 yılları
arasındaki dönem kısıtında 81 ile ilişkin vergi yükü (tahakkuk-tahsil) ve kişi
başına düşen gayri safi yurt içi hâsıla verileri kullanılmıştır. Yapılan
analizler, illere göre vergi yükü ile illerin ekonomik büyüme hızları arasında
uzun dönemli eşbütünleşik bir ilişki bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Kurgulanan
hata düzeltme modelleri ise illerin yapısal olarak uzun dönemde birbirlerine
yakınsadığını, vergi yükünde meydana gelecek %1’lik artışın ekonomik büyüme
hızını kısa dönemde %0,6 azaltacağını, uzun dönemde ise %0,9 artıracağını ortaya
koymaktadır. Çalışmada elde edilen bulgular hem kısa hem de uzun dönem
itibariyle vergi yükünün illerin büyüme hızları üzerindeki etkilerini yansıtması
açısından literatüre katkı sağlar niteliktedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Vergi Politikası, Vergi Yükü, İktisadi Büyüme Hızı, Bölgesel Kalkınma, Gelir ve İkame Etkileri

THE EFFECTS OF TAX BURDEN ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF PROVINCES IN TURKEY (2005-2014)

Öz

In this study, the existence
of the short and long-term relationships between tax burden and economic growth
is examined in the sample of provinces in Turkey. In this context, tax burden
(accrual-collection) and gross domestic product per capita data are used for 81
provinces covering the period 2005-2014. According to the analyses, there is a
long-run cointegrated relationship between tax burden and economic growth.
Error correction models show that provinces are structurally convergence to
each other in the long run. It also reveals that while 1 percent increase in
the tax burden will decrease the rate of economic growth by 0.6 percent in the
short term, it increases by 0.9 percent in the long term. Findings obtained in
the study contribute to the literature by examining the effects of tax burden
on growth rate both short and long term.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tax Policy, Tax Burden, Economic Growth, Regional Development, Income and Substitution Effects

Kaynakça

• ABDİOĞLU, Z. ve UYSAL, T. (2013). “Türkiye’de Bölgeler Arası Yakınsama: Panel Birim Kök Analizi”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 27(3).
• ADKISSON, R.V. ve MOHAMMED, M. (2014). “Tax Structure and State Economic Growth during the Great Recession”, The Social Science Journal, 51, 79–89.
• AFONSO, A. ve FURCERI, D. (2010). “Government Size, Composition, Volatility and Economic Growth”, European Journal of Political Economy, 26, 517–532.
• AHN, S.C. ve MOON, H.R. (2001). “Large-N and large-T Properties of Panel Data Estimators and The Hausman Test”, USC Center for Law, Economics & Organization, Research Paper No: C01-20.
• ALESINA A. ve ARDAGNA, S. (2009). “Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes Versus Spending”, NBER Working Paper No. 15438.
• ALESINA A. ve PEROTTI, R. (1997). “Fiscal Adjustment in OECD Countries: Composition and Macro Economic Effects”, IMF Staff Papers, vol. 44
• ALESINA A. ve PEROTTI, R. (1995). “The Political Economy of Budget Deficits”, IMF Staff Papers, vol. 42.
• ARNOLD, J., BRYS, B., HEADY, C., JOHANSSON, A., SCHWELLNUS, C. ve VARTIA, L. (2011). “Tax Policy For Economic Recovery and Growth”, Economic Journal, 121, 59-80.
• BANIA, N., GRAY, J.A. ve STONE J.A. (2007). "Growth, Taxes, and Government Expenditures: Growth Hills for U.S. States", National Tax Journal, 60(2), 193-204.
• BARRO, R.J. (1991). “Economic Growth in A Cross Section Of Countries”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), 407-443.
• BARRO, R.J. ve SALA-I-MARTIN, X. (1991). “Convergence across States and Regions”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 107-182.
• BARRO, R.J. ve SALA-I-MARTIN, X. (1990). “Economic Growth and Convergence across The United States”, National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper No. w3419.
• BASSANINI, A. ve SCARPETA, S. (2001). “The Driving Forces of Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence for the OECD Countries”, OECD Economic Studies, 2, 12-19.
• BAUMOL, W. (1986). “Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-Run Data Show”, The American Economic Review, 76(5), 1072-1085.
• BECKERMAN, W. (2002). “A Poverty of Reason: Sustainable Development and Economic Growth”, The Independent Institute: Oakland, US.
• BERNARD, A.B. ve DURLAUF, S.N. (1996). “Interpreting Tests of The Convergence Hypothesis”, Journal of Econometrics, 71(1), 161-173.
• BLOMQUIST, N.S. ve HANSSON-BRUSEWITZ, U. (1990). “The Effect of Taxes on Male and Female Labor Supply in Sweden”, Journal of Human Resources, 317-357.
• BROWN, S.P., HAYES, K.J. ve TAYLOR, L.L. (2003). “State and Local Policy, Factor Markets, and Regional Growth”, The Review of Regional Studies, 33(1), 40.
• BULUTOĞLU, K. (1971). Kamu Ekonomisine Giriş, 4. Baskı, Sermet Matbaası, İstanbul.
• BURGESS, R. ve STERN, N. (1993). “Taxation and Development”, Journal of Economic Literature, 31(2), 762-830.
• BURTLESS, G. ve HAUSMAN, J.A. (1978). “The Effect of Taxation on Labor Supply: Evaluating the Gary Negative Income Tax Experiment”, Journal of Political Economy, 86(6), 1103-1130.
• CARREE, M. ve KLOMP, L. (1997). “Testing The Convergence Hypothesis: A Comment”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(4), 683-686.
• CASELLİ, F., ESQUIVEL, G. ve LEFORT, F. (1996). “Reopening The Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics”, Journal of Economic Growth, 1(3), 363-389.
• CHOI, I. (2001). “Unit Root Tests for Panel Data”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 20, 249-272.
• ÇELİK, N. (2017). “Teşvik Politikalarının Etkinliğinin Mekânsal Perspektiften Değerlendirilmesi”, Ege Akademik Bakış, 17(1), 1.
• DURLAUF, S.N. (1996). “On The Convergence and Divergence of Growth Rates”, The Economic Journal, 106(437), 1016-1018.
• EDİZDOĞAN, N. ve ÇELİKKAYA, A. (2010). Vergilerin Ekonomik Analizi, 1. Baskı, Dora Yayıncılık, Bursa.
• ENGEN, E.M. ve SKINNER, J. (1996). “Taxation and Economic Growth”, National Bureau of Economic Research, (No. w5826).
• ENGLE, R.F. ve GRANGER, C.W.J. (1987). “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”, Econometrica, 55 (2), 251-276.
• ERK, N., ATEŞ, S. ve DİREKÇİ, T. (2000) “Convergence and Growth within GAP Region (South Eastern Anatolia Project) and overall Turkey’s Regions”, IV. ODTÜ Uluslararası Ekonomi Kongresi,13-16 Eylül, Ankara.
• EVANS, P. ve KARRAS, G. (1996). “Do Economies Converge? Evidence from A Panel of US States”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 384-388.
• FAGERBERG, J. (1995). “Convergence or Divergence? The Impact of Technology on “Why Growth Rates Differ”, Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 5(3), 269-284.
• FEDELI, S. ve FORTE, F. (2014). “Deficits, Tax Burden and Unemployment”, F. Forte, R. Mudambi, ve P. Navarra (Eds.), Handbook of Alternative Theories of Public Economics. UK: Edward Elgar.
• FEDELI, S. ve FORTE, F. (2016). “The Long Term Effects of Government Budget Constraints on GDP Growth: An Empirical Study on OECD Countries (1980-2009)”, G.D. Bartolomeo, ve E. Saltari (Eds.), Theoretical Foundations of Macroeconomic Policy – Growth, Productivity and Public Finance. NY: Routledge.
• FEREDE, E. ve DAHLBY, B. (2012). “The Impact of Tax Cuts on Economic Growth: Evidence from the Canadian Provinces”, National Tax Journal, 65, 563-594.
• FOLSTER, S. ve HENREKSON, M. (2001). “Growth Effects of Government Expenditure and Taxation in Rich Countries”, European Economic Review, 45, 1501-1520.
• GREASLEY, D. ve OXLEY, L. (1997). “Time-series Based Tests of The Convergence Hypothesis: Some Positive Results”, Economics Letters, 56(2), 143-147.
• HAUSMAN, J.A. (1985). “Taxes and Labor Supply”, Handbook of Public Economics, 1, 213-263.
• HALAÇ, U. ve KUŞTEPELİ, Y. (2008) “Türkiye’de Bölgesel Gelirin Yakınsaması: Gelir Dağılımı Açısından Bir Değerlendirme”, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İşletme Fakültesi Discussion Paper Series, 8(1), 1 14.
• HELMS, L.J. (1985). “The Effect of State and Local Taxes on Economic Growth: A Time Series-Cross Section Approach”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 574-582.
• HICKS, U.K. (1956). “Direct Taxation and Economic Growth”, Oxford Economic Papers, 8(3), 302-317.
• HSIAO, C. (2003). Analysis of Panel Data (2. baskı). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• ISLAM, N. (1995). “Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110(4), 1127-1170.
• JAIMOVICH, N. ve REBELO, S. (2017). “Nonlinear Effects of Taxation on Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 125(1), 265-291.
• JOHANSEN, S. (1991). “Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models”, Econometrica, 59 (6), 1551-1580.
• JONES, L.E., MANUELLI, R.E. ve ROSSI, P.E. (1993). “Optimal Taxation in Models of Endogenous Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 101(3), 485-517.
• KALDOR, N. (1965). “The Role of Taxation in Economic Development”, Problems in Economic Development (170-195). Palgrave Macmillan UK.
• KALDOR, N. (1963). “Taxation for Economic Development”, The Journal of Modern African Studies, 1(01), 7-23.
• KALDOR, N. (1957). “A Model of Economic Growth”, The Economic Journal, 67(268), 591-624.
• KALDOR, N. (1955). “Alternative Theories of Distribution”, The Review of Economic Studies, 23(2), 83-100.
• KAO, C. (1999). “Spurious Regression and Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Panel Data”, Journal of Econometrics, 90, 1-44.
• KEILBACH, M. (2000). “Spatial Knowledge Spillovers and the Dynamics of Agglomeration and Regional Growth (61-81)”, Keilbach, M. Spatial Knowledge Spillovers and the Dynamics of Agglomeration and Regional Growth, A product of Physica-Verlag Heidelberg.
• KIZILTAN, A. ve ERSUNGUR, Ş. M. (2007). “Türkiye’de İller Ve Bölgelerin Ekonomik Gelişme Düzeyleri Arasındaki Uzun Dönemli İlişkiler”, Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 10(2).
• KNELLER, R., BLEANEY, M.F. ve GEMMELL, N. (1999). “Fiscal Policy and Growth: Evidence from OECD Countries”, Journal of Public Economics, 74(2), 171-190.
• KNIGHT, M., LOAYZA, N. ve VILLANUEVA, D. (1993). “Testing The Neoclassical Theory of Economic Growth: A Panel Data Approach”, Staff papers, 40(3), 512-541.
• KOESTER, R.B. ve KORMENDI, R.C. (1989). “Taxation, Aggregate Activity and Economic Growth: Cross Country Evidence on Some Supply-Side Hypothesis”, Economic Inquiry, 27, 367–386.
• LEIBFRITZ, W., THORNTON, J. ve BIBBEE, A. (1997). “Taxation and Economic Performance”, OECD Working Papers, (176).
• LEVIN, A., LIN, C.F. ve CHU, C.S.J. (2002). “Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymtotic and Finite-Sample Properties”, Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1-24.
• LICHTENBERG, F.R. (1994). “Testing The Convergence Hypothesis”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 576-579.
• LUCAS, R.E. (1988). “On The Mechanics of Economic Development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22(1), 3-42.
• MACURDY, T., GREEN, D. ve PAARSCH, H. (1990). “Assessing Empirical Approaches for Analyzing Taxes and Labor Supply”, Journal of Human Resources, 415-490.
• MADDALA, G.S. ve WU, S. (1999). “A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and A New Simple Test”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Special Issue, No: 0305-9049, 631-652.
• MANKIW, N.G., ROMER, D. ve WEIL, D.N. (1992). “A Contribution to The Empirics of Economic Growth”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(2), 407-437.
• MARTIN, R. ve SUNLEY, P. (1998). “Slow Convergence? The New Endogenous Growth Theory and Regional Development”, Economic Geography, 74(3), 201-227.
• MCDERMOTT, J. ve WESCOTT, R. (1996). “An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments”, IMF Staff Papers, 43(4), 723-753.
• MICHELACCI, C. ve ZAFFARONI, P. (2000). “(Fractional) Beta Convergence”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 45(1), 129-153.
• MILLER, S.M. ve CLARKE, C.A. (2014). “Can State and Local Revenue and Expenditure Enhance Economic Growth? A Cross-State Panel Study of Fiscal Activity”, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2390329 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2390329
• MILLER, S.M. ve RUSSEK, F.S. (1997). "Fiscal Structures and Economic Growth at the State and Local Level", Public Finance Review, 225(2), 213-237.
• MUSGRAVE, R.A. ve MUSGRAVE, P.B. (1973). Public Finance in Theory and Practice, International Student Edition, McGraw-Hill, Tokyo.
• PEARCE, D.W. ve ATKINSON, G.D. (1993). “Capital Theory and The Measurement of Sustainable Development: An Indicator of “Weak” Sustainability”, Ecological Economics, 8(2), 103-108.
• PEDRONI, P. (1999). “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Special Issue, 653-670.
• PESARAN, M.H. ve SMITH, R. P. (1995). “Estimating Long-Run Relationships from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 68, 79-113.
• PESARAN, M.H., SHIN, Y. ve SMITH, R.P. (1999). “Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 94 (446), 621-634.
• POULSON, B.W. ve KAPLAN, J.G. (2008). “State Income Taxes and Economic Growth”, The CATO Journal, 28, 53–71.
• RAPACKI, R. ve PRÓCHNIAK, M. (2009). “Real Beta and Sigma Convergence in 27 Transition Countries, 1990–2005”, Post-Communist Economies, 21(3), 307-326.
• REBELO, S. (1991). “Long-run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 99(3), 500-521.
• REED, R. (2008). “The Robust Relationship between Taxes and U.S. State Income Growth”, Natıonal Tax Journal, 61, 57-80.
• ROE, T. (2003). “Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study”, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 85(4), 1087-1088.
• ROMER, C. ve ROMER, D. H. (2010). “The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on A New Measure of Fiscal Shocks”, American Economic Review, 100(3), 763-801.
• ROMER, P.M. (1986). “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), 1002-1037.
• SAĞBAŞ, İ. (2013). Vergi Teorisi, Kalkan Matbaacılık, Ankara.
• SAĞBAŞ, İ. (2002) “Türkiye'de Kamu Harcamalarının Yakınsama Üzerine Etkisi”, Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 4(2), 137 148.
• SALA-I-MARTIN, X.X. (1996a). “Regional Cohesion: Evidence and Theories of Regional Growth and Convergence”, European Economic Review, 40(6), 1325-1352.
• SALA-I-MARTIN, X.X. (1996b). “The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis”, The Economic Journal, 106(437), 1019-1036. doi:10.2307/2235375
• SALANIE, B. (2003). The Economics of Taxation, The MIT Press, London.
• SELİM, S., KOÇTÜRK, O. M. ve ERYİGİT, P. (2014). “Türkiye'de Yatirim Tesvikleri ve Sabit Yatirimlarin Istihdam Üzerine Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi”, Ege Akademik Bakis, 14(4), 661.
• SOLOW, R.M. (1956). “A Contribution to The Theory of Economic Growth”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65-94.
• STERN, D.I., COMMON, M.S. ve BARBIER, E.B. (1996). “Economic Growth and Environmental Degradation: The Environmental Kuznets Curve and Sustainable Development”, World Development, 24(7), 1151-1160.
• ŞENER, O. (2006). Kamu Ekonomisi: Teori ve Uygulama, 8. Baskı, Beta Yayıncılık, Bursa.
• TANZI, V. ve ZEE, H. H. (1997). “Fiscal Policy and Long-Run Growth”, Staff Papers, 44(2), 179-209.
• TONDL, G. (2001). Convergence after Divergence? Regional Growth in Europe, Springer.
• TURHAN, S. (1998). Vergi Teorisi ve Politikası, 6. Baskı, Filiz Kitabevi, İstanbul.
• UHLIG, H. ve YANAGAWA, N. (1996). “Increasing The Capital Income Tax May Lead to Faster Growth”, European Economic Review, 40(8), 1521-1540.
• UZAWA, H. (1965). “Optimum Technical Change in An Aggregative Model of Economic Growth”, International Economic Review, 6(1), 18-31.
• WANNISKI, J. (1978). “Taxes, Revenues, and The Laffer Curve”, The Public Interest, 50(Spring), 3–16.
• YILDIRIM, J. (2005). “Regional Policy and Economic Convergence in Turkey: A Spatial Data Analysis”, 18th European Advanced Studies Institute in Regional Science, 1-10.
• YOUNG, A.T., HIGGINS, M.J. ve LEVY, D. (2008). “Sigma Convergence versus Beta Convergence: Evidence from US County‐Level Data”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 40(5), 1083-1093.
• ZEREN, F. ve YILANCI, V. (2011) “Türkiye’de Bölgeler Arası Gelir Yakınsaması: Rassal Katsayılı Panel Veri Analizi Uygulaması”, Business and Economics Research Journal, 2(1), 143 151.