Empirical Evidence for The Validity of The Financial Convergence Hypothesis Under Structural Breaks

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 21, 584 - 599, 30.06.2023

Soner Künç , Süleyman Çelik , Seyhun Tutgun

https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.1299962

Cited By: 2

Öz

Convergence hypotheses can be empirically tested on a variety of macroeconomic variable thanks to the advancement of economic and statistical theories. In recent years, the validity of the convergence hypothesis has been started to be analyzed for the financial systems as well as the interest rate, exchange rate, unemployment rate indicators of the countries. The aim of this study is to analyze how the financial development levels of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and Turkey, which are expressed as BRICS-T, converge to the USA, which is considered as the dominant country in the field of finance. Structural break unit root tests for the BRICS-T countries were conducted to evaluate the validity of the theory. Brazil demonstrated financial concerns after 2000, despite convergence and divergence occurring up until 1998 between 1984 and 2020. Russia separated till the 2000s before returning to the convergence trend after 2010 despite having had a major break in the 1990s. Up until the 2000s, Turkey, China, South Africa, and India generally adopted different paths, but it is clear that financial convergence started to happen following that year. Overall, it was determined that all of the BRICS-T nations began to experience convergence after the 2000s, but at varying rates.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Convergence, Financial Development, BRICS Countries, Türkiye

Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Finansal Yakınsama Hipotezinin Geçerliliğine Yönelik Ampirik Kanıtlar

Öz

İktisadi ve istatistiksel teorilerin gelişmesi ile birlikte yakınsama hipotezleri birçok makroekonomik değişken üzerinde ampirik olarak uygulanabilmektedir. Son yıllarda ülkelerin faiz oranı, döviz kuru, işsizlik oranı göstergelerinin yanında finans sistemleri için de yakınsama hipotezinin geçerliliği analiz edilmeye başlanmıştır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, BRICS-T olarak adlandırılan/ifade edilen Brezilya, Rusya, Hindistan, Çin, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye’nin finansal gelişim seviyelerinin finans alanında başat ülke olarak kabul edilen ABD’ye ne düzeyde yakınsadıklarını analiz etmektedir. Ülkelerin finansal gelişim endeksleri temel gösterge olarak ele alınmıştır. Hipotezin geçerliliğinin sınanması için BRICS-T ülkelerine yönelik yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testleri kullanılmıştır. 1984-2020 yılları arası dönemde Brezilya 1998 yılına kadar önce yakınsama sonra ıraksama durumu içinde iken 2000 sonrası dönemde finansal yakınmasa göstermektedir. Rusya, 1990’lı yıllarda keskin kırılma yaşayarak yakınsama içinde olsa da 2000’li yıllara kadar ıraksama yaşayıp 2010’dan sonra tekrar yakınsama trendine girmektedir. Çin, Güney Afrika, Hindistan ve Türkiye genel olarak 2000’li yıllara kadar ıraksama yönünde seyir izlerken 2000 sonrasında ise finansal yakınsamanın gerçekleştiği görülmektedir. Genel olarak bütün BRICS-T ülkelerinin farklı seviyelerde de olsa 2000’li yıllardan sonra yakınsama trendine girdikleri sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Yakınsama, Finansal Gelişme, BRICS Ülkeleri, Türkiye

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