Rusya Liderliğinde Bir Güç Merkezi Olarak Avrasya Ekonomi Birliği

Yıl 2019, Cilt: 7 , 1 - 22, 19.07.2019

Eray Alım , Fuat Aksu

https://doi.org/10.14782/ipsus.594377

Cited By: 1

Öz

Avrasya’da, eski Sovyet coğrafyasının kapsadığı alanda bölgesel entegrasyon politikalarının itici gücü

bölgenin lider ülkesi olan Rusya olmuştur. SSCB’nin dağılması sonrasında Rusya’nın öncülüğünde atılan

entegrasyon adımları bölgesel birlikteliğin sağlanması kadar Rusya’nın gücünü kurumsallaştırmasının

da bir vasıtasıdır. Nitekim, Rusya ve bölge ülkeleri arasındaki keskin güç asimetrisi, bölge ülkelerinin

Rusya’ya sunabileceği katkıları sınırlı kılmakta ve böylece hangi saiklerle Rusya’nın bölgesel örgütler

kurmak suretiyle entegrasyon tesis etmek isteyebileceği sorusunu ortaya çıkarmaktadır. Bu hususla

ilgili bakılması gereken nokta jeopolitik etkenler ve Rusya’nın uluslararası sistemin genelinde etkili bir

oyuncu olması için bölgesindeki konumunu konsolide etme ihtiyacıdır. Bu tespite güçlü zemin sunan

örnek bir hadise olarak 2015 senesinde Avrasya Ekonomi Birliği (AEB) faaliyete başlamıştır. Her ne kadar

bu projenin kuruluş gerekçesi ekonomik nedenler üzerine bina edilmişse de, bölge ülkelerinin sınırlı

ekonomik hacimleri, statik ekonomik yapıları ve bu hususlarla ilişkili olarak Rusya’nın ihracatının ezici

payını gelişmiş ekonomilerin oluşturması, Rusya açısından AEB projenin rasyonalitesini sorgulanır

kılmaktadır. Fakat ekonomik boyutun ötesine geçilerek odak noktası Rusya’nın jeopolitik tasavvuruna

ve uluslararası siyasi dengeleri okuma şekline sabitlendiğinde, AEB projesini anlamlandırma imkânı

doğmaktadır. Yakın plan bir okuma yapıldığında, AEB’nin hayata geçtiği konjonktür Rusya’nın çok

kutuplu bir dünya düzeninin etkili aktörlerinden biri olma hedefini daha güçlü şekilde vurguladığı

zaman dilimine denk düşmektedir. Bu bağlamda, Rusya’nın AEB’nin kuruluşuyla Batı ve Çin arasındaki

geniş orta alanı kontrol edecek bir blok oluşturma politikasının güçlü işaretleri göze çarpmaktadır. Her

ne kadar Rusya, yeni bir Avrasya rejimi ile siyasi entegrasyonu da içinde barındıran supranasyonal

bir örgütü mümkün kılmak istemişse de, komşularının Rusya’nın nüfuzu altına girmekten duydukları

kaygı bu hedefi kolay ulaşılabilir kılmamaktadır. Buna rağmen, 1990’lardaki durumuna kıyasla Rusya,

2000’lerin ilk on yılında enerji fiyatlarındaki yükselişin getirdiği ekonomik gelirle, kendisini daha hazır

hissettiği bir dünya konjonktüründe, güçlü bir entegrasyon projesi olarak AEB’yi hayata geçirebilmiştir

Anahtar Kelimeler

Rusya, Avrasya Ekonomi Birliği, Bölgesel Entegrasyon, Çok Kutuplu Dünya Düzeni

Eurosian Economic Union as a Power Centre Under the Leadership of Russia

Öz

Russia has been the driving force behind integration projects in the geographical area known as the ex-

Soviet space in Eurasia. Following the breakup of the Soviet Union, steps taken to promote integration

under Russian leadership have been aimed at achieving regional unity, but integration initiatives have

also served as a means for Russia to institutionalize its influence. The sharp asymmetry between Russia

and other countries in the region indicates that the potential of the post-Soviet republics to contribute

to Russia is limited and therefore the question arises as to what motivates Russia to achieve integration

with its neighbours through the creation regional organizations. In addressing this question, one needs

to dwell upon geopolitical factors and Russia’s need to consolidate its position in its region which is

necessary for it to become an influential actor internationally. A recent development that provides

basis to this assessment is the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) which came into existence in 2015.

Although economic factors are said to be behind the creation of this project, several factors render

the EEU a questionable enterprise from Russia’s point of view, such as limited economic potential of

regional actors, static economic models and the fact that developed (rather than regional) economies

take up an overwhelming share of Russia’s exports. But if one moves beyond economic dimension,

focuses on Russia’s geopolitical vision and looks at the way in which Russia conceives of international

political dynamics, then it becomes possible to make sense of the EEU project. If viewed closely, one

would notice that the EEU’s creation coincides with Russia’s rigorous attempts to present itself as one

of the influential players of a multipolar international order. In this respect, one could see strong signs

that the EEU project was launched as an initiative to help Russia control the vast space between the

West and China. Although, through a new Eurasian regime, Russia sought to create a supranational

project which was also intended to comprise political integration, it remains unlikely for the EEU to

extend beyond its current form due to the fear of Russia’s neighbours of falling under Russian influence.

Nevertheless, Russia, in a relatively strong position after having experienced economic growth during

the first decade of 2000s through the rise in energy prices, has managed to spearhead the creation of a

strong integration project known as the EEU.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Russia, Eurasian Economic Union, regional integration, Multipolar World Order

Kaynakça

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