Post-Brexit Alternative Trade Scenarios and Potential Economic Impacts

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 9 Sayı: 1, 217 - 248, 31.03.2020

Gökhan Aktaş , Zeynep Kaplan

https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.645790

Öz

The referendum held in 2016 on the withdrawal of the UK from the EU marked a turning point in the history of both the UK and the EU. The UK is the first country to leave the EU. Thus, Brexit has been one of the most problematic and complex processes the EU faced in its history. Moreoever, Brexit has led to significant uncertainities in future UK–EU trade relations. This article analyses the strengths and weaknesses of alternative post-Brexit trade models between the parties and discusses the potential economic impacts of the alternative trade models on the UK economy. It is generally emphasized that the Brexit process will have a negative impact on the UK economy and foreign trade. In this framework, the economic consequences of Brexit will mostly depend on which alternative trade models the UK will adopt after leaving the EU. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Brexit, UK, European Union, Economic Integration, Foreign Trade

Brexit Sonrası Alternatif Ticaret Senaryoları ve Olası İktisadi Etkileri

Öz

2016 yılında BK’nın AB’den ayrılmasına yönelik gerçekleştirilen referandum sonucu, hem AB hem de BK tarihinde önemli bir dönüm noktası olmuştur. BK, Brexit olarak adlandırılan süreç sonucunda AB’den ayrılmaya karar veren ilk ülke olma konumundadır. Brexit süreci, AB'nin tarihinde bugüne kadar karşı karşıya kaldığı en sorunlu ve karmaşık süreçlerden biri olmuştur. Bununla birlikte, Brexit, BK-AB ticari ilişkileri ile ilgili belirsizlikleri de beraberinde getirmiştir. Çalışmada, Brexit sonrasında taraflar arasında uygulanması tartışılan alternatif dış ticaret modelleri, güçlü ve zayıf yönleri dikkate alınarak incelenmiş ve söz konusu ticaret modellerinin BK ekonomisi üzerindeki olası ekonomik etkileri tartışılmıştır. Genel olarak, Brexit’in BK ekonomisi ve dış ticareti üzerinde olumsuz etkileri olacağı ifade edilmektedir. Bu çerçevede, Brexit’in iktisadi etkileri, BK’nın AB’den ayrılması sonrasında hangi alternatif ticaret modelini benimseyeceğine bağlı olacaktır. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Brexit, Birleşik Kralık, Avrupa Birliği, Ekonomik Entegrasyon, Dış Ticaret

Kaynakça

• Anderson, J. E. ve Wincoop, E. van (2004). Trade costs. Journal Of Economic Literature, 42(3), s. 691–751.Balassa, B. A. (1961). The theory of economic integration. Illinois: Richard D. Irwin, Inc.Banse, M. ve Freund F. (2019). The potential implications of a Brexit for the German agro-food sector-An analysis based on the UK tariffs announced on March 13, 2019, Braunschweig. Bartels, L. (2017). The UK’s WTO schedules. Global Trade and Customs Journal, 12 (3), s. 83-86. Begg, I. (2016). Brexit: Why, what next and how?. CESifo Forum, 17 (1), s. 30-36. Borchert, I. (2016). Services trade in the UK: What is at stake?. UK Trade Policy Observatory, Briefing Paper 6, November, s. 1-10.Boulanger, P. ve Philippidis, G. (2015). The end of a romance? A note on the quantitative impacts of a ‘Brexit’ from the EU. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 66 (3), s. 832-842.Byrne, S. ve Rice, J. (2018). Non-tariff barriers and goods trade: a Brexit impact analysis. Central Bank of Ireland Research Technical Paper, Vol. 2018, No. 7, s. 1-30.Chang, W. W. (2018). Brexit and its economic consequences. The World Economy, 41(9), s. 1–25. Crafts, N. (2017). UK economic growth performance in a European context : Has EU membership made much difference?. N. Campos, F. Coricelli (Yay. haz.) The Economics of UK-EU Relations: From the Treaty of Rome to the Vote for Brexit içinde (s. 9-45). Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan.Ciuriak, D., Dadkhah, A. ve Xiao, J. (2017). Brexit trade impacts: Alternative scenarios. Ottawa: Ciuriak Consulting Inc. Erişim adresi: https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/download/8782.pdfCiuriak, D., Xiao, J., Ciuriak, N., Dadkhah, A., Lysenko, D. ve Narayanan, B. (2015). The trade-related impact of a UK exit from the EU Single Market. Ciuriak Consulting Inc. Research Report, 25 April.Council of the European Union. (2012). Press release 3213th council meeting. Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Press Relase 17591/12, 20 December, Brussels. Erişim adresi: https://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_PRES-12-523_en.htmDawari K. ve Togan, S. (2016). Bringing EU-Turkey trade and investment relations up to date. European Parliament. DG for External Policies, PE. 535.014, Brussels.Department for International Trade. (2017). Preparing for our future UK trade policy. October, UK. Erişim adresi: www.gov.uk/government/publications Dhingra, S., Huang, H., Ottaviano, G., Pessoa, J.P., Sampson, T. ve Reenen, J.V., (2017). The costs and benefits of leaving the EU: Trade effects. CEP Discussion Paper No. 1478, Centre for Economic Performance Technical Report, London School of Economics and Political Science.Dhingra, S. ve Sampson, T. (2016). Life after Brexit: What are the UK’s options outside the European Union?. Paper Brexit 01, Centre for Economic Performance, London: London School of Economics and Political Science.Djankov, S. (2017). The City of London after Brexit. Policy Brief No. 17-9, Washington DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics, s. 1-8.Douglas, J. (2017). UK’s Hammond announces sharp cuts to economic forecasts. The Wall Street Journal, 22 Ekim. Erişim adresi: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-s-hammond-announces-sharp-cuts-to-economic-forecasts-1511357941Ebell, M. ve Warren, J. (2016). The long-term economic impact of leaving the EU. National Institute Economic Review, 236(1), s. 121–138. El-Agraa, A. M. (2011) The European Union: economics and policies. New York: Cambridge University Press.European Union (2012). Consolidated version of the Treaty on European Union and the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. Official Journal of the European Union, 2012C 326/13, Vol. 55.Emerson, M. (2016). Which model for Brexit?, Centre for European Policy, CEPS Special Report No. 147, October, s. 1-20. Financial Times (2019). Airbus chief Tom Enders brands handling of Brexit a disgrace. 24 Ocak. Erişim adresi: https://www.ft.com/content/Gasiorek M., Serwicka I., ve Smith A. (2018). Which manufacturing sectors are most vulnerable to Brexit?, UK Trade Policy Observatory, Briefing Paper 16, Şubat.Hantzsche, A., Kara, A. ve Young, G. (2019). The economic effects of the UK government’s proposed Brexit deal. The World Economy, 42(1), s. 5–20. Hosoe, N. (2017). Impact of border barriers, returning migrants, and trade diversion in Brexit: Firm exit and loss of variety. Economic Modelling, 69, s. 193-204.Kierzenkowski, R., Pain, N., Rusticelli, E., ve Zwart, S. (2016). The Economic Consequences of Brexit: A Taxing Decision. OECD Economic Policy Paper No. 16, OECD Publishing.Lea, B. R. (2018). Trading with the EU post- Brexit: the WTO option is perfectly feasible. Arbuthnot Banking Group, s. 1-18. Mayer, T., Vicard, V. ve Zignago, S. (2018). The cost of Non-Europe Revisited. Banque de France Working Paper No. 673, April.Mejean, I., ve Schwellnus, C. (2009). Price convergence in the European Union: Within firms or composition of firms?. Journal of International Economics, 78(1), s. 1–10. Minford, P. (2018). How the Civil Service has misled us about the costs of Brexit and the Customs Union. Economists for Free Trade, Brexit Central. Moric, H. ve Mariano, V. (2018). Comparison of different regimes of future legal relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union after Brexit. Journal of Public Affairs, 14(8), s. 1–6. ONS. (2018). Summary of Balance of Payments, The Pink Book, National Accounts Dataset. Erişim adresi: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/datasets/1summaryofbalanceofpaymentsthepinkbook2016 Otto, U. F. ve Ghauri, P. N. (2019). Brexit negotiations: From negotiation space to agreement zones. Journal of International Business Studies, 50, s. 137-149. Porto, P. ve Morini, C. (2014). Trade facilitation, the authorized economic operator and the single window: a gravity model approach. Customs Scientific Journal, 4(2), s. 44-53.Prins, C., Heijmerikx, M., Vreede, I., Erken, H., ve Hayat, R. (2018). Measuring the permanent costs of Brexit. National Institute Economic Review, 244(1), s. 46–55. PwC. (2016). Leaving the EU: Implications for the UK economy. Vol. March, PwC UK.Ramiah V., Pham N.A.H. ve Moosa I. (2016). The sectoral effects of Brexit on the British economy: early evidence from the reaction of the stock market. Applied Economics, 49 (26), s. 2508-2514.Rojas-Romagosa, H. (2016). Trade effects of Brexit for the Netherlands. CPB Background Document, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, June, Rotterdam.Sommerland, J. ve Chapman, B. (2019). Which companies are leaving UK, downsizing or cutting Jobs ahead of Brexit?. The Independent, Business News, 26 February. Erişim adresi: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-companies-leaving-uk-list-job-cuts-eu-no-deal-customs-union-a8792296.html.The Guardian. (2013). David Cameron's EU speech - full text. The Guardian, 23 January, Erişim adresi: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/jan/23/david-cameron-eu-speech-referendumThe Telegraph. (2017). Theresa May’s Brexit speech in full. The Telegraph, 17 January. Erişim adresi: http://www.telegraph.co. uk/news/2017/01/17/theresa-mays-brexit-speech-full/.Thompson, G. ve Harari, D. (2013). The economic impact of EU membership on the UK. Economic Policy and Statistics Standard Note SN/EP/6730, House of Commons Library.TİM. (2019). Anlaşmasız Brexit’in gerçekleşmesi durumunda Türk ihraç ürünlerinin karşılaşması muhtemel vergi oranları. Türkiye İhracatçılar Meclisi, İstanbul.Tobin, A. (2019). The list of companies leaving the UK in the lead up to Brexit grows. Ready for Brexit, Bexit News, 28 January. Erişim adresi: https://readyforbrexit.co.uk/the-list-of-companies-leaving-the-uk-because-of-brexit-grows/ UK Government. (2019c). The tariff of the United Kingdom version 1.0, dated 13 March 2019. Webb, D. (2019). Brexit: trade tariffs if there is no deal. Briefing Paper Number 8518, House of Commons.Welfens, P. J. J. ve Xiong, T. (2019). Brexit perspectives: financial market dynamics, welfare aspects and problems from slower growth. International Economics and Economic Policy, 16 (1), s. 215–265. WTO. (2019). Member Information – The United Kingdom. Erişim adresi:https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/countries_e