Bulanık Çok Kriterli Karar Verme ve Kendi Kendini Düzenleyen Haritalar Kullanarak Şirketlerin Finansal Değerlendirmesine Yönelik Hibrit Yaklaşım

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 2, 610 - 629, 01.07.2024

Fatih Yiğit

https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1404060

Öz

Bu makale, finansal oranları Bulanık Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci (FAHP) ile entegre eden ve sınıflandırma için denetimsiz yapay zeka yöntemi olan Kendi Kendini Düzenleyen Haritaları (SOM) kullanan şirketlerin finansal performanslarının değerlendirilmesi için 3 aşamalı yenilikçi bir yaklaşım sunmaktadır. Kaynak tahsisinde karar vermenin zorluklarını ele alan çalışma, doğru verileri çalkantılı ekonomik dönemlerde gerekli olan sağlam araçlarla birleştirmektedir. Karmaşık ve belirsiz bilgileri işlemesiyle bilinen FAHP, farklı uzmanların görüşlerini entegre ederek ve sayısal değerlere dönüştürerek geleneksel şirket değerlendirme yöntemlerini geliştirmek için uygulanır. Bu çalışma, karmaşık ve belirsiz verileri işleyebilen FAHP ile bütünleştirerek yenilikçi bir çerçeve sunmaktadır. Finansal oranların FAHP'ye entegrasyonu, şirketlerin değerlendirilmesi ve sıralanmasında doğruluğu ve karar verme süreçlerindeki netliği artırırken, ekonomik verilerin doğasındaki belirsizliklerin yönetilmesine olanak tanır. Ek olarak, şirket sınıflandırması için denetimsiz yapay zeka yöntemi olan SOM kullanımı, metodolojimizin etkinliğini gerçek hayat verileri üzerinden ispatlamaktadır. Çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre, Net Kâr Marjı, finansal oranlar arasında 0.38 ile en yüksek ağırlığa sahip olarak değerlendirilen finansal orandır. FAHP aşamasından sonra, firmaların gelir tablosu ve bilançolarından elde edilen finansal oranlar söz konusu ağıırlıklarla çarpılarak değerleme gerçekleştirilmektedir. Son aşamada ise Borsa Istanbul- Sigorta Endeksinde işlem gören toplam 6 şirket 3 sınıfa göre ayrılmıştır. En yüksek değerlemeyi alan 2 firma, AGESA(Agesa Hayat ve Emeklilik) ile ANHYT (Anadolu Hayat Emeklilik Anonim Şirketi), A sınıfı olarak değerlendirilmiştir. Önerilen makalenin performansının tespiti için Elektrik sektöründe XELKT kayıtlı 31 firma ile de uygulama yapılmıştır. Makale, ayrıntılı bir literatür taraması, metodoloji, vaka çalışması sonuçları ve bu entegre değerlendirme yönteminin pratik uygulamaları ve daha ileri araştırma ve uygulamalar için olası alanlar hakkında tartışmalar sağlayarak alana katkıda bulunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Finansal Değerlendirme, Çok Kriterli Karar Verme, Bulanık Analitik Hierarşi Prosesi, Makine Öğrenmesi, Kendi-Kendini Düzenleyen Haritalar

Hybrid Approach for the Financial Assessment of Companies using Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision-Making and Self-Organizing Maps

Öz

This paper presents a 3-stage innovative approach for company assessment, integrating financial ratios with the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and using an unsupervised artificial intelligence method, Self-Organizing Maps (SOM), for classification. Addressing the challenges of decision-making in resource allocation, the study combines accurate data with robust tools essential in turbulent economic times. FAHP, known for handling complex, uncertain information, is applied to refine the traditional company assessment methods by integrating different experts' opinions and conversion to numerical values. This study presents an innovative framework by integrating financial ratios, commonly used in company evaluation methodologies, with FAHP, which is capable of processing complex and uncertain data. The integration of financial ratios into FAHP enhances the accuracy and clarity in decision-making processes for evaluating and ranking companies while also allowing for the management of the inherent uncertainties in economic data. Furthermore, SOM, an unsupervised artificial intelligence method for company classification, is used. Net Profit Margin is the financial ratio evaluated with the highest weight among financial ratios by 0.38. After the FAHP phase, financial ratios obtained from the income statements and balance sheets of companies are multiplied by the respective weights for valuation. In the final phase, a total of 6 companies listed in the Borsa Istanbul Insurance Index are divided into 3 classes. The two companies receiving the highest valuation, AGESA (Agesa Life and Pension) and ANHYT (Anadolu Life Pension Joint Stock Company), have been classified as Class A. To show the performance of the proposed model, companies registered in the Electricity Sector XELKT registered 31 companies. Classification also performed well in that set. The paper contributes to the field by providing a detailed literature review, methodology, case study results, and discussions on the practical implications of this integrated assessment method and possible areas for further research and applications.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Financial Analysis, Multi-Criteria Decision Making, Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, Machine Learning, Self-Organizing Maps

Kaynakça

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