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Projecting Agricultural Land Abandonment and Expansion in Turkiye Using the Subspace KNN Algorithm (2030)

Yıl 2023, Sayı: 47, 149 - 163, 10.01.2024
https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG2023-1270738

Öz

One of the most important changes in agricultural land worldwide is the problem of land abandonment in underdeveloped and developing countries and in regions with low resilience to climate change. This problem is also an ongoing debate in Turkiye. This study first evaluates the process of abandonment and expansion of agricultural land in Turkiye based on the literature before presenting maps of the probability of abandonment and recovery of agricultural land. In this context, the abandonment and expansion of agricultural land due to changes in Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) data for 2006-2018 are used as the dependent variables. Probability maps were constructed using the subspace KNN model with 13 independent variables. The immediate surroundings of cities are seen to come first as the places with a high probability of abandonment. For rural areas, this appears as the areas close to roads and places with forced natural environmental conditions. A very low recovery situation has emerged in terms of places that can be reclaimed. The areas that stand out among these are where hazelnut and tea plantations have expanded in the Black Sea region, as well as the areas with relatively favorable topography in the interior of the Western and Central Taurus Mountains in the Mediterranean region.

Kaynakça

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Türkiye’de Tarımsal Arazilerin Terk Edilmesi ve Genişlemesinin Subspace KNN Algoritmasıyla Projeksiyonu (2030)

Yıl 2023, Sayı: 47, 149 - 163, 10.01.2024
https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG2023-1270738

Öz

Küresel çapta tarım arazilerinde gözlemlenen önemli değişikliklerden biri, az gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerde ve iklim değişikliğine karşı dirençliliğin düşük olduğu bölgelerde görülen, tarımsal arazilerin terk edilmesi problemidir. Bu problem Türkiye genelinde de tartışmaların devam ettiği bir süreci yaşamaktadır. Çalışmada ilk olarak Türkiye’de tarım arazilerinin terk edilmesi ve genişlemesi süreci literatüre dayalı olarak değerlendirilmekte; ikinci olarak tarımsal arazilerde terk edilme ve geri kazanma olasılığına yönelik haritalar sunulmaktadır. Bu kapsamda CORINE verilerindeki (2006-2018) değişikliğe bağlı olarak terk edilen ve genişleyen tarımsal araziler bağımlı değişken olarak kullanılmıştır. Subspace KNN modeli ile 13 bağımsız değişken kullanılarak olasılık haritaları oluşturulmuştur. Terk edilme olasılığı yüksek yerler arasında öncelikle kentlerin yakın çevresi görülmektedir. Kırsal alanlarda ise yollara yakın alanlar ile doğal ortam koşullarının zorladığı yerler belirmektedir. Yeniden kullanılabilecek yerler açısından ise oldukça düşük bir geri kazanma durumu ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu yerler arasında, Karadeniz Bölgesinde fındık ve çay arazilerinin genişlediği alanlar ile Akdeniz Bölgesinde, Batı ve Orta Torosların iç kesimlerindeki topografyanın nispeten elverişli olduğu alanlar dikkati çekmektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Alcantara, C.,; Kuemmerle, T.; Prishchepov, A. V.; Radeloff, V. C. (2012): Mapping abandoned agriculture with multi-temporal MODIS satellite data. In Remote Sensing of Environment 124, pp. 334-347. DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2012.05.019. google scholar
  • Andronic, C.; Derszniak, Noirjean; Gaupp, Berghausen M.; Hsiung, C.H.; Münch, A.; Schuh, B. et al. (2020): Research for AGRI Committee - The challenge of land abandonment after 2020 and options for mitigating measures. Brussels: European Parliament, Policy Department for Structural and Cohesion Policies. google scholar
  • Ashour, Amira S.; Guo, Yanhui; Hawas, Ahmed Refaat; Xu, Guan (2018): Ensemble of subspace discriminant classifiers for schistosomal liver fibrosis staging in mice microscopic images. In Health information science and systems 6 (1), p. 21. DOI: 10.1007/ s13755-018-0059-8. google scholar
  • Azima, A. M.; Ismail, O. (2011): Idle Agriculture Land Resources Management and Development - An Institutional Causes: A Case Study in Malaysia. In Interdisciplinary Journal of Research in Business 1 (8), pp. 21-27. google scholar
  • Benayas, J. M.R.; Martins, A.; Nicolau, J. M.; Schulz, J. (2007): Abandonment of agricultural land: an overview of drivers and consequences. In CAB Reviews 2 (057), pp. 1-14. DOI: 10.1079/ PAVSNNR20072057. google scholar
  • Bernues, A.; Riedel, J. L.; Asensio, M. A.; Blanco, M.; Sanz, A.; Revilla, R.; Casasus, I. (2005): An integrated approach to studying the role of grazing livestock systems in the conservation of rangelands in a protected natural park (Sierra de Guara, Spain). In Livestock Production Science 96 (1), pp. 75-85. google scholar
  • Bielsa, Isabel; Pons, Xavier; Bunce, Bob (2005): Agricultural Abandonment in the North Eastern Iberian Peninsula: The Use of Basic Landscape Metrics to Support Planning. In Journal of Environmental Planning and Management 48 (1), pp. 85-102. DOI: 10.1080/0964056042000308166. google scholar
  • Bruce, Peter; Bruce, Andrew; Gedeck, Peter (2020): Practical statistics for data scientists: 50+ essential concepts using R and Python: O’Reilly Media. google scholar
  • Bryden, John M.; Bruce, David (1995): Towards Sustainable Rural Communities: The Guelph Seminar Series. In Canadian Geographer 39 (3), p. 283. google scholar
  • Canpolat, F. A.; Hayli, S. (2018): Coğrafi göstergeler açısından Türkiye’de kırsal değişim (1980-2012 dönemi). In Journal of Human Sciences 15 (4), pp. 2229-2256. google scholar
  • Dahms, Fredric A. (1995): “Dying Villages’, ‘Counterurbanization’ and the Urban Field -- a Canadian Perspective. In Journal of Rural Studies 11 (1), pp. 21-33. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102551. google scholar
  • Deng, Xin; Zeng, Miao; Xu, Dingde; Qi, Yanbin (2020): Does Social Capital Help to Reduce Farmland Abandonment? Evidence from Big Survey Data in Rural China. In Land 9 (10), p. 360. DOI: 10.3390/land9100360. google scholar
  • D^az, G. I.; Nahuelhual, L.; Echevema, C.; Marin, S. (2011): Drivers of land abandonment in Southern Chile and implications for landscape planning. In Landscape and Urban Planning 99 (3-4), pp. 207-217. DOI: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2010.11.005. google scholar
  • Drucker, P. F. (1993): Kapitalist Ötesi Toplum. İstanbuk: İnkılap Kitapevi. google scholar
  • Du, Jiang; Zeng, Miao; Xie, Zhengjuan; Wang, Shikun (2019): Power of Agricultural Credit in Farmland Abandonment: Evidence from Rural China. In Land 8 (12), p. 184. DOI: 10.3390/land8120184. google scholar
  • Estel, S.; Kuemmerle, T.; Alcantara, C.; Levers, C.; Prishchepov, A.; Hostert, P. (2015): Mapping farmland abandonment and recultivation across Europe using MODIS NDVI time series. In Remote Sensing of Environment 163, pp. 312-325. DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2015.03.028. google scholar
  • European Union (2018): Copernicus Land Monitoring Service 2018, European Environment Agency (EEA). Corine Land Cover (CLC). google scholar
  • Fick, Stephen E.; Hijmans, Robert J. (2017): WorldClim 2: new 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas. In Int. J. Climatol 37 (12), pp. 4302-4315. DOI: 10.1002/joc.5086. google scholar
  • Filho, L. W.; Mandel, M.; Al-Amin, A. Q.; Feher, A.; Chiappetta J., C. J. (2017): An assessment of the causes and consequences of agricultural land abandonment in Europe. In International Journal of Sustainable Development & WorldEcology 24 (6), pp. 554-560. google scholar
  • Food andAgriculture Organization (Ed.) (2006): The Role of Agriculture and Rural Development in Revitalizing Abandoned/Depopulated Areas. The 34th Session of the European Commission on Agriculture. Riga. google scholar
  • Gallant, J. C.; Wilson, P. J. (2000): Primary topographic attributes. In Terrain analysis-principles and application, pp. 51-86. Available online at https://cir.nii.ac.jp/crid/1573950400957839488. google scholar
  • Garda Martmez, A. (2008): Recent evolution of cattle farming systems in the Central Spanish Pyrenees and possibilities of adaptation to the socio-economic environment. google scholar
  • General Directorate of Mapping (2022): Türkiye Mülki İdari Sınırları. Available online at https://www.harita.gov.tr/urun/turkiye-mulki-idare-sinirlari/232, checked on 9/2/2022. google scholar
  • Gupta, S.; Hengl, T. (2019): Soil water content (volumetric%) for 33kPa and 1500kPa suctions predicted at 6 standard depths (0, 10, 30, 60, 100 and 200 cm) at 250 m resolution (Version ... Available online at https://zenodo. org/, checked on 9/9/2022. google scholar
  • Güreşci, Ertuğrul (2014): Kırsal göç, tarım ve toplum üzerine köşede kalan yazılar: Semerci Yayınları. google scholar
  • Hart, J. F.; Salisbury, N. E.; Smith Jr, Everett G. (1968): The dying village and some notions about urban growth. In Economic Geography 44 (4), pp. 343-349. google scholar
  • Hatna, Erez; Bakker, Martha M. (2011): Abandonment and Expansion ofArable Land in Europe. In Ecosystems 14 (5), pp. 720-731. DOI: 10.1007/s10021-011-9441-y. google scholar
  • Huang, Yingqian; Li, Fengqin; Xie, Hualin (2020): A Scientometrics Review on Farmland Abandonment Research. In Land 9 (8), p. 263. DOI: 10.3390/land9080263. google scholar
  • Keenleyside, C.; Tucker, G.M. (2010): Farmland Abandonment in the EU: An Assessment of Trends and Prospects. With assistance of Tiffany Key, Hannah Lee and Andrew McConville. London: Institute for European Environmental Policy. Available online at https://www.researchgate.net/profile/clunie-keenleyside/ publication/258375179_farmland_abandonment_in_the_eu_an_ assessment_of_trends_and_prospects_report_prepared_for_wwf. google scholar
  • Khanal, Narendra Raj; Watanabe, Teiji (2006): Abandonment of agricultural land and its consequences. In Mountain Research and Development 26 (1), pp. 32-40. DOI:10.1659/0276-4741(2006)026[0032:AOALAI]2.0.CO;2. google scholar
  • Kurugöllü, S.; Ünel, F. B. (2021): Ekonomik Katkısı Olmayan Tarım Arazilerinin Araştırılması ve Değerlendirilmesi. In Türkiye Arazi Yönetimi Dergisi 3 (2), pp. 58-65. DOI: 10.51765/tayod.906612. google scholar
  • Lasanta, T.; Arnaez, J.; Pascual, N.; Ruiz-Flano, P.; Errea, M. P.; Lana-Renault, N. (2017): Space-time process and drivers of land abandonment in Europe. In CATENA 149 (4), pp. 810-823. DOI: 10.1016/j.catena.2016.02.024. google scholar
  • Levers, C.; Schneider, M.; Prishchepov, A. V; Estel, S.; Kuemmerle, T. (2018): Spatial variation in determinants of agricultural land abandonment in Europe. In Science of the total environment 644, pp. 95-111. google scholar
  • Liu, Jinxiu; Shen, Weihao; He, Yaqian (2021): Effects of Cropland Expansion on Temperature Extremes in Western India from 1982 to 2015. In Land 10 (5), p. 489. DOI: 10.3390/land10050489. google scholar
  • Ma, Xiaoyu; Yang, Tao; Chen, Jiangchuan; Liu, Ziyu (Eds.) (2021): K-Nearest Neighbor Algorithm based on feature subspace. 2021 International Conference on Big Data Analysis and Computer Science (BDACS). Kunming, China, 25-27 June 2021. IEEE. Available online at https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9516557, checked on 5/1/2023. google scholar
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Toplam 61 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Fiziksel Coğrafya ve Çevre Jeolojisi (Diğer)
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Fethi Ahmet Canpolat 0000-0002-6084-7735

Yayımlanma Tarihi 10 Ocak 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi 25 Mart 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Sayı: 47

Kaynak Göster

APA Canpolat, F. A. (2024). Projecting Agricultural Land Abandonment and Expansion in Turkiye Using the Subspace KNN Algorithm (2030). Journal of Geography(47), 149-163. https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG2023-1270738
AMA Canpolat FA. Projecting Agricultural Land Abandonment and Expansion in Turkiye Using the Subspace KNN Algorithm (2030). Journal of Geography. Ocak 2024;(47):149-163. doi:10.26650/JGEOG2023-1270738
Chicago Canpolat, Fethi Ahmet. “Projecting Agricultural Land Abandonment and Expansion in Turkiye Using the Subspace KNN Algorithm (2030)”. Journal of Geography, sy. 47 (Ocak 2024): 149-63. https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG2023-1270738.
EndNote Canpolat FA (01 Ocak 2024) Projecting Agricultural Land Abandonment and Expansion in Turkiye Using the Subspace KNN Algorithm (2030). Journal of Geography 47 149–163.
IEEE F. A. Canpolat, “Projecting Agricultural Land Abandonment and Expansion in Turkiye Using the Subspace KNN Algorithm (2030)”, Journal of Geography, sy. 47, ss. 149–163, Ocak 2024, doi: 10.26650/JGEOG2023-1270738.
ISNAD Canpolat, Fethi Ahmet. “Projecting Agricultural Land Abandonment and Expansion in Turkiye Using the Subspace KNN Algorithm (2030)”. Journal of Geography 47 (Ocak 2024), 149-163. https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG2023-1270738.
JAMA Canpolat FA. Projecting Agricultural Land Abandonment and Expansion in Turkiye Using the Subspace KNN Algorithm (2030). Journal of Geography. 2024;:149–163.
MLA Canpolat, Fethi Ahmet. “Projecting Agricultural Land Abandonment and Expansion in Turkiye Using the Subspace KNN Algorithm (2030)”. Journal of Geography, sy. 47, 2024, ss. 149-63, doi:10.26650/JGEOG2023-1270738.
Vancouver Canpolat FA. Projecting Agricultural Land Abandonment and Expansion in Turkiye Using the Subspace KNN Algorithm (2030). Journal of Geography. 2024(47):149-63.