GELİŞMİŞ VE YÜKSELEN EKONOMİLERDE EKONOMİK DALGALANMALARIN SİGORTA SEKTÖRÜNE DİNAMİK ETKİLERİ

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 2, 1 - 18, 30.07.2017

Necla Tunay , Batu Tunay

Öz

Çalışmada sigorta şirketlerinin pazar payı ile hayat ve hayat dışı sigorta primlerinin ekonomik
faaliyet hacmindeki ciddi değişmelerden nasıl etkilendikleri araştırılmıştır. Gelişmiş ve
yükselen ekonomilerden meydana gelen bir örneklem kullanılarak panel VAR modellerine
dayalı analizler uygulanmıştır. Ulaşılan bulgular sigorta sektörünün ekonomik faaliyetlerdeki
ciddi dalgalanmalardan olumsuz etkilendiği yönündedir. Genelde bu gibi şoklar krizleri
takiben meydana geldiğinden, bu bulgular sigorta sisteminin krizlere karşı duyarlılığını da
dolaylı olarak yansıtmaktadır. Sigorta sektöründeki şokların da ekonomiye yansımaları
olabileceği yönünde bulgulara ulaşılmıştır. Ancak bunlar diğer bulgular kadar güçlü değildir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Sigorta Sektörü, Döngüler, Döngüsellik, Panel VAR Modelleri

DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS ON THE INSURANCE SECTOR IN DEVELOPED AND EMERGING ECONOMIES

Öz

In the study, it was investigated how the insurance companies' market share and life and non-
life insurance premiums are affected by the serious changes in the volume of economic
activity. Analyzes based on panel VAR models have been performed using a sample collected
from developed and emerging market economies. The findings indicate that insurance
industry are adversely affected by serious fluctuations in economic activities. Since such
shocks generally follow the crisis, these findings indirectly reflect the sensitivity of the
insurance system to crises. Findings also show that shocks in the insurance sector may be the
reflections of the economy. But these are not as strong as the other findings. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Insurance Industry, Business Cycles, Cyclicality

Kaynakça

• Acharya, V.V., Biggs, J., Richardson, M. ve Ryan, S. (2009), “On the Financial Regulation of Insurance Companies”, NYU Stern School of Business, August. Acharya, V.V. ve Richardson, M. (2014), “Is the Insurance Industry Systemically Risky?”, in Modernizing Insurance Regulation (eds J. H. Biggs and M. P. Richardson), John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, NJ, USA., 151-179. Anderson, S. (2013). “A History of the Past 40 Years in Financial Crises”, International Financing Review Special Report, Thomson Reuters. September, 48-52. Baluch, F., Mutenga, S. ve Parsons, C. (2011), “Insurance, Systemic Risk and the Financial Crisis”, Geneva Papers, 36, 126-163. Bernoth, K. ve Pick, A. (2011), “Forecasting the Fragility of the Banking and Insurance Sectors”, Journal of Banking and Finance, 35, 807-818. Bijlsma, M. ve Vermeulen, R. (2015) “Insurance Companies' Trading Behaviour during the European Sovereign Debt Crisis: Flight Home or Flight to Quality?” DeNederlandscheBank Working Papers, No. 468, March. Breitung, J. (2000). “The Local Power of Some Unit Root Tests for Panel Data”, Advances in Econometrics, Volume 15: Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration, and Dynamic Panels, Ed. B. H. Baltagi, Amsterdam: JAY Press, 161–178. Canova, F. ve Ciccarelli, M. (2014). “Panel Vector Autoregressive Models: A Survey”, Advances in Econometrics, 32, 205-246. Chakraborty, D. (2010), “Global Financial Crises, India and Insurance and Pension Industry: Why and What Next”, Institute of Actuaries on India, 12th Global Conference of Actuaries, 18-19 February 2010, Mumbai. Chen, M.C., Chang, C.C.; Lin, S.K. ve Shyu, S.D. (2010), “Estimation of Housing Price Jump Risks and Their Impact on the Valuation of Mortgage Insurance Contracts”, Journal of Risk and Insurance, 77(2), 399-422. Chen, R. ve Wong, K.A. (2004), “The Determinants of Financial Health of Asian Insurance Companies”, Journal of Risk and Insurance, 71(3), 469-499. Choi, I. (2001). “Unit Root Tests for Panel Data”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 20(2): 249–272. Cummins, J.D. ve Weiss, M.A. (2009), “Convergence of Insurance and Financial Markets: Hybrid and Securitized Risk-Transfer Solutions”, Journal of Risk and Insurance, 76(3), 493- 545.