The Impact of Aviation Sector on Economic Growth: The Case of India

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 2 Sayı: 2, 23 - 41

Sümeyye Yavuz , Melih Yıldız

Öz

The aviation industry has been experiencing rapid growth in the twenty-first century and its economic contributions have been widely discussed in the academic literature. The main objective of this study is to empirically evaluate the aviation-led growth hypothesis by examining the causality relationship between the aviation sector and economic growth in India. In this context, data for the period 1980-2021 are analyzed using Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) methods. The results of the analysis revealed that the findings of the CCR model are consistent with the FMOLS and DOLS estimation methods. According to the CCR results of the first model, a 1% increase in the number of passengers increases GDP by 0.10%. According to the CCR results of the second model, a 1% increase in cargo volume increases GDP by 0.07%. These findings suggest that growth in the aviation sector has a positive and significant impact on the Indian economy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

- Aviation sector, - Economic growth, - India, - Causality

Havacılık Sektörünün Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Hindistan Örneği

Öz

Havacılık endüstrisi, yirmi birinci yüzyılda hızlı bir büyüme sergilemekte olup, bu büyümenin ekonomik katkıları akademik literatürde geniş bir şekilde ele alınmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı da Hindistan'da havacılık sektörü ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini inceleyerek, havacılık öncülüğünde büyüme hipotezini ampirik olarak değerlendirmektir. Bu bağlamda, 1980-2021 dönemlerine ait veriler Dinamik En Küçük Kareler (Dynamic Ordinary Least Square / DOLS), Tam Değiştirilmiş En Küçük Kareler (Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square / FMOLS) ve Klasik Koentegrasyon Regresyonu (Canonical Cointegrating Regression / CCR) yöntemleri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçları, CCR modelinin bulgularının FMOLS ve DOLS tahmin yöntemleriyle uyumlu olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Birinci modelin CCR sonuçlarına göre, yolcu sayısındaki %1'lik artışın GSYİH'yı %0,10 oranında artırdığı belirlenmiştir. İkinci modelin CCR sonuçlarına göre ise, yük miktarındaki %1'lik artışın GSYİH'yı %0,07 oranında artırdığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu bulgular, havacılık sektöründeki büyümenin Hindistan ekonomisi üzerinde olumlu ve anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

- Havacılık sektörü, - Ekonomik büyüme, - Hindistan, - Nedensellik

Kaynakça

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