Yeni Küresel Güç Mücadelesi ile Soğuk Savaş Arasında Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analiz: Nereye Gidiyoruz?

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2, 24 - 38, 31.12.2021

Fatih Akgul

Öz

Uluslararası sistem ve kutupluluk konuları uluslararası ilişkiler çalışmalarında her zaman ayrıcalıklı bir konuma sahip olsa da ABD ve Çin arasında beliren yeni güç mücadelesinden sonra daha fazla tartışılır olmuşlardır. Bu mücadele aynı zamanda büyük bir görüş ayrılığına da işaret etmektedir, çünkü bazıları bu mücadelenin çok kutuplu sistemin devamını, bazıları ise yeni bir Soğuk Savaş’la sonuçlanacağını öngörmektedir ki bunlar birbirinden oldukça farklı yapılardır ve uluslararası topluma yansımaları da bir o kadar farklı olacaktır. Bu makale, uluslararası düzenlerde ve sistemdeki değişimi değerlendirmek amacıyla Soğuk Savaş’la yeni güç mücadelesi arasında aktörler, yapı ve içerik açılarından karşılaştırmalı bir analiz sunmaktadır. Makale; aktörlerin, kapasiteleri ve rekabetleri bakımından Soğuk Savaş dönemindeki mücadeleye bir derece benzerlik gösterseler de uluslararası meseleleri yönetme ve sistemi etkileme konularında yeterli politik güç ve motivasyona sahip olmadıklarını iddia etmektedir. Daha da önemlisi, şartlar ve içerik bakımından da büyük farklılıklar bulunmaktadır. Dolayısıyla, yakın gelecekte çift kutuplu bir dünya öngörmek zordur. Bununla birlikte makale, bu güç mücadelesinin belli koşullar gerçekleştiği takdirde Soğuk Savaş benzeri bir kutuplaşmayla sonuçlanabileceğini de kabul etmektedir. ABD ve Çin ne kadar kutuplaşırsa küresel ticaret ve müşterek güvenliğe olumsuz etkileri uluslararası toplum tarafından o kadar fazla hissedilecektir ve bu etkiler uluslararası düzenlerin nasıl değişeceği ve sistemi neye dönüştüreceği konusunda belirleyici olacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Küresel Güç Mücadelesi, Yeni Soğuk Savaş, Kutuplaşma, ABD, Çin

A Comparative Analysis between the New Great Power Competition and the Cold War: Quo Imus?

Öz

Although international system and polarity are always favorite subjects in international relations studies, following the emergence of a power competition between the US and China, they have been discussed more widely. This competition also has triggered an important debate, since some have predicted continuity of the multipolar system while others have predicted a new Cold War, which are quite different structures and imply very different reflections to the international community. This article proposes a comparative analysis between the Cold War and current power competition with their actors, structure, and content to assess the change in the international orders and the system. The article concludes that although the actors with their potentials and rivalry present some level of similarity with the Cold War, they don’t have enough political power and motivation to manage international affairs, nor have they enough control over the system. More importantly, there are other significant differences in the conditions and content of competition. Therefore, it is hard to predict a bipolar world in the near future since the reis no significant change in international orders. However, the article also acknowledges that a Cold War like polarization is still possible under some conditions. The more the US and China polarize the more its negative effects on global trade and collective security will be felt by the international community and these effects will be indicative of how the international orders change and transform the system.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Great power competition, new Cold War, polarity, the US, China

Kaynakça

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