THE MODERATING EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH NEXUS IN THE G7 COUNTRIES
Yıl 2022,
Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1, 195 - 207, 27.06.2022
Ibrahim Nandom Yakubu
,
Ayhan Kapusuzoğlu
,
Nildağ Başak Ceylan
Öz
This paper examines the nexus between export diversification and economic growth in the G7 countries and how exchange rate volatility affects this relationship. Using data covering from 1995 to 2018, the study applies the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) techniques to examine the long-run impact of export diversification on economic growth. The results show that export diversification significantly enhances economic growth in the G7 countries. Nonetheless, the growth-enhancing effect of export diversification is inimically affected by exchange rate volatility. We also document that trade openness significantly accelerates growth which supports the trade-led growth hypothesis in the bloc. To the best of the researchers' knowledge, there is no specific study on the export diversification and economic growth relationship in the G7 countries. Besides, based on a detailed review of the literature, we are unaware of any empirical research that considers the moderating impact of exchange rate volatility on the export diversification-growth nexus.
Kaynakça
- Aditya, A., & Acharyya, R. (2013). Export diversification, composition, and economic growth: Evidence from cross-country analysis. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 22(7), 959-992.
- Ahiabor, G., & Amoah, A. (2019). Examining the effect of real effective exchange rate volatility on economic growth: Evidence from Ghana. Journal of Economics and Economic Education Research, 20(1), 1-14.
- Akhter, M. (2015). The impact of export and import on economic growth in Bangladesh. World Vision, 9(1), 66-81.
- Alagidede, P., & Ibrahim, M. (2017). On the causes and effects of exchange rate volatility on economic growth: Evidence from Ghana. Journal of African Business, 18(2), 169-193.
- Ali, B. J., Hasan, H., & Oudat, M. S. (2021). Relationship among export, import and economic growth: Using co-integration analysis. Psychology and Education Journal, 58(1), 5126-5134.
- Baek, J. (2013). Does the exchange rate matter to bilateral trade between Korea and Japan? Evidence from commodity trade data. Economic Modelling, 30(C), 856-862.
- Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Harvey, H. (2011). Exchange-rate volatility and industry trade between the US and Malaysia. Research in International Business and Finance, 25(2), 127-155.
- Balsalobre-Lorente, D., Driha, O. M., Bekun, F. V., & Osundina, O. A. (2019). Do agricultural activities induce carbon emissions? The BRICS experience. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26(24), 25218-25234.
- Barguellil, A., Ben-Salha, O., & Zmami, M. (2018). Exchange rate volatility and economic growth. Journal of Economic Integration, 33(2), 1302-1336.
- Cadot, O., Carrère, C., & Strauss-Kahn, V. (2011). Export diversification: what's behind the hump? Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(2), 590-605.
- Chandra, V., Boccardo, J., & Osorio, I. (2007). Export diversification and competitiveness in developing countries. World Bank, Washington, DC.
- Devkota, M. L. (2019). Impact of export and import on economic growth: Time series evidence from India. Dynamic Econometric Models, 19, 29-40.
- Duru, I. U., & Ehidiamhen, P. O. (2018). Empirical investigation of the impact of export diversification on economic growth: Evidence from Nigeria, 1980-2016. Journal of Economics, Management and Trade, 21(7), 1-24.
- Ferreira, G. F., & Harrison, R. W. (2012). From coffee beans to microchips: Export diversification and economic growth in Costa Rica. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 44(4), 517-531.
- Finger, J. M., & Kreinin, M. E. (1979). A measure of export similarity and its possible uses. The Economic Journal, 89(356), 905-912.
- Fu, D., Wu, Y., & Zhang, Y. (2019). Does export diversification matter for China’s regional growth?. The Singapore Economic Review, 64(4), 863-882.
- Hamed, K., Hadi, D., & Hossein, K. (2014). Export diversification and economic growth in some selected developing countries. African Journal of Business Management, 8(17), 700-704.
- Heckscher, E.F. (1919). Utrikshandelns verkan pa inkomstfoerdelningen, Ekonomist Tradskrift, 21, Del 2, 1-32 (The effect of foreign trade on the distribution of income, in Readings in the Theory of International Trade; Ellis, H.S., Metzler, L.A., Eds.; Blakiston: Philadelphia, PA, USA, 272-300)
- Hodey, L. S., Oduro, A. D., & Senadza, B. (2015). Export diversification and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of African Development, 17(2), 67-81.
- Jongwanich, J. (2020). Export diversification, margins and economic growth at industrial level: Evidence from Thailand. The World Economy, 43(10), 2674-2722.
- Kadyrova, A. (2011). The effect of export diversification on country growth. MA Thesis, Department of Economics, Central European University, Budapest, Hungary.
- Kuznets, S. (1971). Notes on stage of economic growth as a system determinant. University of California Press, Berkeley.
- Lee, D., & Zhang, H. (2019). Export diversification in low-income countries and small states: Do country size and income level matter? Working Paper No. 19-118. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
- Matthee, M., & Naude, W. (2007). Export diversity and regional growth: Empirical evidence from South Africa. Research paper no. 2007/11. UNU-WIDER, United Nations University (UNU), Japan.
- Morina, F., Hysa, E., Ergün, U., Panait, M., & Voica, M. C. (2020). The effect of exchange rate volatility on economic growth: Case of the CEE countries. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 13(8), 177.
- Mudenda, C., Choga, I., & Chigamba, C. (2014). The role of export diversification on economic growth in South Africa. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 5(9), 705-712.
- Nguyen, T. H. (2016). Impact of export on economic growth in Vietnam: Empirical research and recommendations. International Business and Management, 13(3), 45-52.
- Ohlin, B. (1933). Interregional and international trade. Harvard University Press, Cambridge.
- Okyere, I., & Jilu, L. (2020). The impact of export and import to economic growth of Ghana. European Journal of Business and Management, 12(21), 130-138.
- Ozata, E. (2020). The effect of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Turkey. Journal of Business Economics and Finance, 9(1), 42-51.
- Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. IZA Discussion Paper No. 1240. The Institute for the Study of Labor, Bonn.
- Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
- Rath, B. N., & Akram, V. (2017). Export diversification and total factor productivity growth in case of South Asian region. Journal of Social and Economic Development, 19(1), 196-210.
- Ricardo, D. (1891). On the principles of political economy and taxation. J. M’Creery Publishers, London.
- Sahin, B. E. (2019). Impact of high technology export on economic growth: An analysis on Turkey. Journal of Business Economics and Finance, 8(3), 165-172.
- Siswana, S., & Phiri, A. (2021). Is export diversification or export specialization responsible for economic growth in BRICS countries? The International Trade Journal, 35(3), 243-261.
- Sultanuzzaman, M. R., Fan, H., Akash, M., Wang, B., & Shakij, U. S. M. (2018). The role of FDI inflows and export on economic growth in Sri Lanka: An ARDL approach. Cogent Economics & Finance, 6(1), 1-17.
- Temiz Dinç, D., & Gökmen, A. (2019). Export-led economic growth and the case of Brazil: An empirical research. Journal of Transnational Management, 24(2), 122-141.
- Umaru, H., Aguda, N. A., & Davies, N. O. (2018). The effects of exchange rate volatility on economic growth of West African English-speaking countries. International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, 8(4), 131-143.
- Yama, M., & Wani, N. U. H. (2021). Nexus between export diversification and economic growth: A case study of Afghanistan. Kardan Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, 4(1), 1-24.
Yıl 2022,
Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1, 195 - 207, 27.06.2022
Ibrahim Nandom Yakubu
,
Ayhan Kapusuzoğlu
,
Nildağ Başak Ceylan
Kaynakça
- Aditya, A., & Acharyya, R. (2013). Export diversification, composition, and economic growth: Evidence from cross-country analysis. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 22(7), 959-992.
- Ahiabor, G., & Amoah, A. (2019). Examining the effect of real effective exchange rate volatility on economic growth: Evidence from Ghana. Journal of Economics and Economic Education Research, 20(1), 1-14.
- Akhter, M. (2015). The impact of export and import on economic growth in Bangladesh. World Vision, 9(1), 66-81.
- Alagidede, P., & Ibrahim, M. (2017). On the causes and effects of exchange rate volatility on economic growth: Evidence from Ghana. Journal of African Business, 18(2), 169-193.
- Ali, B. J., Hasan, H., & Oudat, M. S. (2021). Relationship among export, import and economic growth: Using co-integration analysis. Psychology and Education Journal, 58(1), 5126-5134.
- Baek, J. (2013). Does the exchange rate matter to bilateral trade between Korea and Japan? Evidence from commodity trade data. Economic Modelling, 30(C), 856-862.
- Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Harvey, H. (2011). Exchange-rate volatility and industry trade between the US and Malaysia. Research in International Business and Finance, 25(2), 127-155.
- Balsalobre-Lorente, D., Driha, O. M., Bekun, F. V., & Osundina, O. A. (2019). Do agricultural activities induce carbon emissions? The BRICS experience. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26(24), 25218-25234.
- Barguellil, A., Ben-Salha, O., & Zmami, M. (2018). Exchange rate volatility and economic growth. Journal of Economic Integration, 33(2), 1302-1336.
- Cadot, O., Carrère, C., & Strauss-Kahn, V. (2011). Export diversification: what's behind the hump? Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(2), 590-605.
- Chandra, V., Boccardo, J., & Osorio, I. (2007). Export diversification and competitiveness in developing countries. World Bank, Washington, DC.
- Devkota, M. L. (2019). Impact of export and import on economic growth: Time series evidence from India. Dynamic Econometric Models, 19, 29-40.
- Duru, I. U., & Ehidiamhen, P. O. (2018). Empirical investigation of the impact of export diversification on economic growth: Evidence from Nigeria, 1980-2016. Journal of Economics, Management and Trade, 21(7), 1-24.
- Ferreira, G. F., & Harrison, R. W. (2012). From coffee beans to microchips: Export diversification and economic growth in Costa Rica. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 44(4), 517-531.
- Finger, J. M., & Kreinin, M. E. (1979). A measure of export similarity and its possible uses. The Economic Journal, 89(356), 905-912.
- Fu, D., Wu, Y., & Zhang, Y. (2019). Does export diversification matter for China’s regional growth?. The Singapore Economic Review, 64(4), 863-882.
- Hamed, K., Hadi, D., & Hossein, K. (2014). Export diversification and economic growth in some selected developing countries. African Journal of Business Management, 8(17), 700-704.
- Heckscher, E.F. (1919). Utrikshandelns verkan pa inkomstfoerdelningen, Ekonomist Tradskrift, 21, Del 2, 1-32 (The effect of foreign trade on the distribution of income, in Readings in the Theory of International Trade; Ellis, H.S., Metzler, L.A., Eds.; Blakiston: Philadelphia, PA, USA, 272-300)
- Hodey, L. S., Oduro, A. D., & Senadza, B. (2015). Export diversification and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of African Development, 17(2), 67-81.
- Jongwanich, J. (2020). Export diversification, margins and economic growth at industrial level: Evidence from Thailand. The World Economy, 43(10), 2674-2722.
- Kadyrova, A. (2011). The effect of export diversification on country growth. MA Thesis, Department of Economics, Central European University, Budapest, Hungary.
- Kuznets, S. (1971). Notes on stage of economic growth as a system determinant. University of California Press, Berkeley.
- Lee, D., & Zhang, H. (2019). Export diversification in low-income countries and small states: Do country size and income level matter? Working Paper No. 19-118. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
- Matthee, M., & Naude, W. (2007). Export diversity and regional growth: Empirical evidence from South Africa. Research paper no. 2007/11. UNU-WIDER, United Nations University (UNU), Japan.
- Morina, F., Hysa, E., Ergün, U., Panait, M., & Voica, M. C. (2020). The effect of exchange rate volatility on economic growth: Case of the CEE countries. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 13(8), 177.
- Mudenda, C., Choga, I., & Chigamba, C. (2014). The role of export diversification on economic growth in South Africa. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 5(9), 705-712.
- Nguyen, T. H. (2016). Impact of export on economic growth in Vietnam: Empirical research and recommendations. International Business and Management, 13(3), 45-52.
- Ohlin, B. (1933). Interregional and international trade. Harvard University Press, Cambridge.
- Okyere, I., & Jilu, L. (2020). The impact of export and import to economic growth of Ghana. European Journal of Business and Management, 12(21), 130-138.
- Ozata, E. (2020). The effect of exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Turkey. Journal of Business Economics and Finance, 9(1), 42-51.
- Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. IZA Discussion Paper No. 1240. The Institute for the Study of Labor, Bonn.
- Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
- Rath, B. N., & Akram, V. (2017). Export diversification and total factor productivity growth in case of South Asian region. Journal of Social and Economic Development, 19(1), 196-210.
- Ricardo, D. (1891). On the principles of political economy and taxation. J. M’Creery Publishers, London.
- Sahin, B. E. (2019). Impact of high technology export on economic growth: An analysis on Turkey. Journal of Business Economics and Finance, 8(3), 165-172.
- Siswana, S., & Phiri, A. (2021). Is export diversification or export specialization responsible for economic growth in BRICS countries? The International Trade Journal, 35(3), 243-261.
- Sultanuzzaman, M. R., Fan, H., Akash, M., Wang, B., & Shakij, U. S. M. (2018). The role of FDI inflows and export on economic growth in Sri Lanka: An ARDL approach. Cogent Economics & Finance, 6(1), 1-17.
- Temiz Dinç, D., & Gökmen, A. (2019). Export-led economic growth and the case of Brazil: An empirical research. Journal of Transnational Management, 24(2), 122-141.
- Umaru, H., Aguda, N. A., & Davies, N. O. (2018). The effects of exchange rate volatility on economic growth of West African English-speaking countries. International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, 8(4), 131-143.
- Yama, M., & Wani, N. U. H. (2021). Nexus between export diversification and economic growth: A case study of Afghanistan. Kardan Journal of Economics and Management Sciences, 4(1), 1-24.